RadarExpected points
Who has taken more points than the chances of their matches suggested, and who fewer — and whether the gap is bigger than chance alone.
Furthest from expectations n = 96
Teams whose real points are far from the expected ones. Only those outside the 95% interval are called “above” or “below expectations”: a smaller gap can appear even if the matches had been played exactly at the model's chances. E.g. 6 points above expectations from 7 matches means more than 6 from 30.
2 of 96 teams are outside the 95% interval; by chance alone about 5 would be.
| # | Team | League | M | Pts | xPts | Diff. | ± chance | Verdict | xPts rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SS Lazio | Serie A | 7 | 19 | 10.9 | +8.1 | ± 6.5 | above expectations | 8 |
| 1 | Manchester City FC | Premier League | 7 | 21 | 14.4 | +6.6 | ± 6.1 | above expectations | 1 |
By league n = 5
For every match played, the model (trained only on earlier matches, never on the result) gave the 1 / X / 2 chances; expected points = 3 × win chance + draw chance, added up. Difference = real points − expected. “± …” = how big the difference can be by chance alone (95%). Order = the official table; “xPts rank” = the rank by expected points.
Premier League 2026-27 · n = 71
| # | Team | M | Pts | xPts | Diff. | ± chance | Verdict | xPts rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City FC | 7 | 21 | 14.4 | +6.6 | ± 6.1 | above expectations | 1 |
| 2 | Arsenal FC † | 7 | 18 | 13.8 | +4.2 | ± 6.3 | within chance | 2 |
| 3 | Brighton & Hove Albion FC | 7 | 16 | 10.4 | +5.6 | ± 6.6 | within chance | 7 |
| 4 | Chelsea FC | 7 | 13 | 9.0 | +4.0 | ± 6.5 | within chance | 13 |
| 5 | Liverpool FC | 7 | 12 | 11.4 | +0.6 | ± 6.6 | within chance | 4 |
| 6 | Aston Villa FC | 7 | 8 | 8.7 | −0.7 | ± 6.5 | within chance | 15 |
| 7 | Brentford FC | 7 | 10 | 10.3 | −0.3 | ± 6.7 | within chance | 8 |
| 8 | Leeds United FC | 7 | 10 | 8.7 | +1.3 | ± 6.4 | within chance | 14 |
| 9 | Everton FC | 7 | 10 | 9.9 | +0.1 | ± 6.4 | within chance | 10 |
| 10 | Ipswich Town FC | 8 | 10 | 5.2 | +4.8 | ± 5.7 | within chance | 20 |
| 11 | Hull City AFC † | 7 | 9 | 10.4 | −1.4 | ± 6.6 | within chance | 6 |
| 12 | Tottenham Hotspur FC | 7 | 6 | 7.9 | −1.9 | ± 6.4 | within chance | 17 |
| 13 | Fulham FC | 7 | 5 | 9.3 | −4.3 | ± 6.5 | within chance | 12 |
| 14 | Newcastle United FC | 7 | 8 | 10.2 | −2.2 | ± 6.7 | within chance | 9 |
| 15 | Manchester United FC † | 7 | 7 | 10.7 | −3.7 | ± 6.4 | within chance | 5 |
| 16 | Crystal Palace FC | 7 | 7 | 8.1 | −1.1 | ± 6.2 | within chance | 16 |
| 17 | AFC Bournemouth | 7 | 6 | 9.4 | −3.4 | ± 6.6 | within chance | 11 |
| 18 | Nottingham Forest FC | 8 | 6 | 11.6 | −5.6 | ± 6.9 | within chance | 3 |
| 19 | Coventry City FC † | 7 | 6 | 6.7 | −0.7 | ± 5.9 | within chance | 19 |
| 20 | Sunderland AFC | 7 | 4 | 7.7 | −3.7 | ± 6.1 | within chance | 18 |
4 played matches without an estimate yet (postponed or not yet processed).
† = matches with a team that had no history in the model, taken at the league average.
La Liga 2026-27 · n = 90
| # | Team | M | Pts | xPts | Diff. | ± chance | Verdict | xPts rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona | 9 | 27 | 20.9 | +6.1 | ± 6.4 | within chance | 1 |
| 2 | Club Atlético de Madrid † | 9 | 22 | 15.2 | +6.8 | ± 7.6 | within chance | 3 |
| 3 | Real Madrid CF | 9 | 21 | 18.7 | +2.3 | ± 7.0 | within chance | 2 |
| 4 | Real Betis Balompié | 9 | 19 | 13.0 | +6.0 | ± 7.4 | within chance | 8 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 9 | 16 | 11.3 | +4.7 | ± 7.4 | within chance | 11 |
| 6 | Sevilla FC | 9 | 14 | 9.2 | +4.8 | ± 7.0 | within chance | 19 |
| 7 | Deportivo Alavés | 10 | 12 | 13.6 | −1.6 | ± 7.8 | within chance | 6 |
| 8 | Villarreal CF † | 9 | 9 | 14.7 | −5.7 | ± 7.4 | within chance | 4 |
| 9 | CA Osasuna | 9 | 11 | 11.8 | −0.8 | ± 7.2 | within chance | 9 |
| 10 | RC Celta de Vigo | 9 | 11 | 14.3 | −3.3 | ± 7.5 | within chance | 5 |
| 11 | RC Deportivo La Coruña † | 9 | 11 | 13.2 | −2.1 | ± 7.4 | within chance | 7 |
| 12 | Real Racing Club de Santander † | 9 | 8 | 10.6 | −2.6 | ± 7.2 | within chance | 13 |
| 13 | Levante UD | 9 | 10 | 9.8 | +0.1 | ± 7.2 | within chance | 17 |
| 14 | Elche CF † | 9 | 7 | 8.9 | −1.9 | ± 7.1 | within chance | 20 |
| 15 | Getafe CF | 9 | 9 | 10.5 | −1.5 | ± 6.9 | within chance | 15 |
| 16 | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 8 | 9 | 9.6 | −0.6 | ± 6.6 | within chance | 18 |
| 17 | Athletic Club | 8 | 9 | 10.3 | −1.3 | ± 6.7 | within chance | 16 |
| 18 | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona | 9 | 8 | 11.4 | −3.5 | ± 7.4 | within chance | 10 |
| 19 | Valencia CF | 9 | 6 | 10.8 | −4.8 | ± 7.4 | within chance | 12 |
| 20 | Málaga CF † | 10 | 5 | 10.5 | −5.5 | ± 7.3 | within chance | 14 |
4 played matches without an estimate yet (postponed or not yet processed).
† = matches with a team that had no history in the model, taken at the league average.
Serie A 2026-27 · n = 71
| # | Team | M | Pts | xPts | Diff. | ± chance | Verdict | xPts rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SS Lazio | 7 | 19 | 10.9 | +8.1 | ± 6.5 | above expectations | 8 |
| 2 | FC Internazionale Milano | 7 | 19 | 15.0 | +4.0 | ± 5.9 | within chance | 1 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 7 | 17 | 12.6 | +4.4 | ± 6.4 | within chance | 2 |
| 4 | Como 1907 | 7 | 14 | 11.3 | +2.7 | ± 6.6 | within chance | 7 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 7 | 15 | 11.9 | +3.1 | ± 6.5 | within chance | 6 |
| 6 | Frosinone Calcio † | 7 | 13 | 10.1 | +2.9 | ± 6.5 | within chance | 9 |
| 7 | Torino FC | 8 | 13 | 9.4 | +3.6 | ± 6.8 | within chance | 10 |
| 8 | Cagliari Calcio | 7 | 13 | 8.1 | +4.9 | ± 6.2 | within chance | 15 |
| 9 | SSC Napoli | 7 | 10 | 12.0 | −2.0 | ± 6.5 | within chance | 5 |
| 10 | Juventus FC † | 7 | 11 | 12.4 | −1.4 | ± 6.6 | within chance | 3 |
| 11 | Atalanta BC | 7 | 9 | 12.0 | −3.0 | ± 6.4 | within chance | 4 |
| 12 | US Lecce | 7 | 9 | 6.8 | +2.2 | ± 5.9 | within chance | 18 |
| 13 | Bologna FC 1909 | 7 | 5 | 9.2 | −4.2 | ± 6.4 | within chance | 12 |
| 14 | US Sassuolo Calcio | 7 | 8 | 8.7 | −0.7 | ± 6.4 | within chance | 14 |
| 15 | AC Monza | 8 | 7 | 6.2 | +0.8 | ± 6.1 | within chance | 19 |
| 16 | Parma Calcio 1913 | 7 | 4 | 7.5 | −3.5 | ± 6.0 | within chance | 16 |
| 17 | Genoa CFC | 7 | 4 | 6.9 | −2.9 | ± 6.1 | within chance | 17 |
| 18 | Udinese Calcio | 7 | 4 | 9.2 | −5.2 | ± 6.3 | within chance | 13 |
| 19 | ACF Fiorentina | 7 | 4 | 9.3 | −5.3 | ± 6.5 | within chance | 11 |
| 20 | Venezia FC | 7 | 3 | 5.4 | −2.4 | ± 5.5 | within chance | 20 |
4 played matches without an estimate yet (postponed or not yet processed).
† = matches with a team that had no history in the model, taken at the league average.
Bundesliga 2026-27 · n = 55
| # | Team | M | Pts | xPts | Diff. | ± chance | Verdict | xPts rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 14 | 11.7 | +2.3 | ± 5.9 | within chance | 2 |
| 2 | FC Bayern München | 6 | 14 | 14.4 | −0.4 | ± 5.1 | within chance | 1 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 6 | 13 | 7.7 | +5.3 | ± 6.0 | within chance | 13 |
| 4 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen † | 6 | 13 | 10.7 | +2.3 | ± 6.1 | within chance | 4 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 6 | 9 | 9.0 | +0.0 | ± 5.9 | within chance | 6 |
| 6 | SV Werder Bremen | 6 | 9 | 6.7 | +2.3 | ± 5.9 | within chance | 15 |
| 7 | 1. FSV Mainz 05 † | 6 | 10 | 8.0 | +2.0 | ± 6.2 | within chance | 10 |
| 8 | SV 07 Elversberg † | 6 | 10 | 8.9 | +1.1 | ± 6.1 | within chance | 7 |
| 9 | FC Augsburg † | 6 | 8 | 5.3 | +2.7 | ± 5.6 | within chance | 17 |
| 10 | Hamburger SV | 6 | 9 | 5.6 | +3.4 | ± 5.6 | within chance | 16 |
| 11 | 1. FC Köln | 6 | 7 | 7.4 | −0.4 | ± 6.1 | within chance | 14 |
| 12 | SC Paderborn 07 † | 6 | 5 | 8.1 | −3.1 | ± 6.0 | within chance | 9 |
| 13 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 6 | 8 | 9.3 | −1.3 | ± 6.2 | within chance | 5 |
| 14 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 6 | 6 | 8.2 | −2.1 | ± 6.2 | within chance | 8 |
| 15 | VfB Stuttgart | 7 | 6 | 10.8 | −4.8 | ± 6.4 | within chance | 3 |
| 16 | FC Schalke 04 † | 6 | 5 | 7.9 | −2.9 | ± 5.9 | within chance | 11 |
| 17 | 1. FC Union Berlin | 6 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 | ± 5.2 | within chance | 18 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7 | 3 | 7.8 | −4.8 | ± 6.5 | within chance | 12 |
6 played matches without an estimate yet (postponed or not yet processed).
† = matches with a team that had no history in the model, taken at the league average.
Ligue 1 2026-27 · n = 64
| # | Team | M | Pts | xPts | Diff. | ± chance | Verdict | xPts rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olympique Lyonnais | 7 | 14 | 11.9 | +2.1 | ± 6.5 | within chance | 4 |
| 2 | Paris Saint-Germain FC | 7 | 14 | 13.6 | +0.4 | ± 6.5 | within chance | 1 |
| 3 | Lille OSC | 7 | 14 | 12.5 | +1.5 | ± 6.4 | within chance | 2 |
| 4 | Paris FC † | 7 | 14 | 9.9 | +4.1 | ± 6.7 | within chance | 7 |
| 5 | AS Monaco FC | 7 | 14 | 9.9 | +4.1 | ± 6.6 | within chance | 8 |
| 6 | Racing Club de Lens | 7 | 10 | 12.1 | −2.1 | ± 6.6 | within chance | 3 |
| 7 | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | 7 | 13 | 10.0 | +3.0 | ± 6.6 | within chance | 6 |
| 8 | FC Lorient | 7 | 11 | 9.2 | +1.8 | ± 6.6 | within chance | 10 |
| 9 | OGC Nice | 8 | 11 | 8.5 | +2.5 | ± 6.8 | within chance | 15 |
| 10 | Olympique de Marseille | 7 | 9 | 10.8 | −1.8 | ± 6.8 | within chance | 5 |
| 11 | Stade Brestois 29 † | 8 | 9 | 9.7 | −0.7 | ± 6.8 | within chance | 9 |
| 12 | Toulouse FC | 7 | 9 | 8.6 | +0.4 | ± 6.5 | within chance | 13 |
| 13 | AJ Auxerre | 7 | 9 | 8.5 | +0.5 | ± 6.3 | within chance | 14 |
| 14 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | 7 | 7 | 8.7 | −1.7 | ± 6.7 | within chance | 12 |
| 15 | Angers SCO | 7 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.0 | ± 6.1 | within chance | 18 |
| 16 | Le Mans FC † | 7 | 6 | 9.0 | −3.0 | ± 6.4 | within chance | 11 |
| 17 | ES Troyes AC † | 7 | 4 | 8.1 | −4.1 | ± 6.3 | within chance | 16 |
| 18 | Le Havre AC | 7 | 2 | 7.7 | −5.7 | ± 6.2 | within chance | 17 |
1 played match without an estimate yet (postponed or not yet processed).
† = matches with a team that had no history in the model, taken at the league average.
Updated 25 Oct 2026