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Aston Villa FC

Premier League · season 2026-27 · 8 matches

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6League position6 of 20 in the regular season table (11 points, 8 played).
1569Elo ratingGoes up when the team gets more from its matches than expected, down when it gets less. Rank 5 of 20 in Premier League. Own rating (H = 50, K = 10), parameters calibrated on 624 Liga 1 match (Brier 0.1582 vs 0.1679) and used in every league.

How it is doing now

In short, from results: the last 5 matches (W = win, D = draw, L = loss, most recent on the right), the points rate (how many of the possible points it took, next to the league average), the state (how many of 3 measures are above the league average) and what happens to it most consistently.

Aston Villa6th of 20Above average 2 of 3 measures above the benchmarkLast 5LWDWWPoints rate · last 1057%league 45%Goal difference 0 in the last 10 · Elo +8.6 in the last 5Most consistent · last 20Nothing above the league rate in the cautious reading.
How the box is calculated
  • Points rate = the points taken in the last 10 matches, divided by the possible ones (3 per match). League average = the same calculation over all the league's matches in the 365 days before.
  • The state counts 3 measures: (1) the points rate over the last 10 matches is above the league average; (2) the goal difference over the last 10 matches is positive; (3) the Elo rating rose over the last 5 matches (Elo accounts for the opponents' strength). Equal to the benchmark does not count.
  • 3 of 3 = good form · 2 = above average · 1 = below average · 0 = poor form. The state appears from 6 consecutive matches in our data.
  • Most consistent = at most 3 things from the last 20 matches that happened more often than in the league even in the cautious reading (the lower bound of the 95% interval is above the league rate). If there is none, the box says so.
  • “Consecutive” = no break longer than 180 days: for a team back in the league, the count starts from its return.
  • The state describes results so far, not what comes next and not the team's morale.

Next match

The team's next scheduled match, with the model's estimate for 1 (home win), X (draw) and 2 (away win). An estimate, not advice; it is frozen before kick-off and its record is public.

Aston Villa FC – Fulham FC

· Home

47%1≈ 1 in 2.12
28%X≈ 1 in 3.55
25%2≈ 1 in 4.07

Explore Aston Villa FC

The analysis pages this team appears on. Each card shows the team's figure taken from the very page it opens; open it to see it next to the other teams and the league benchmark.

01 / 07Season simulator34%chance of a top-6 finishWhere does its season end? →02 / 07Fixture difficulty0.38difficulty of the next 5 matches (from 0, easy, to 1, hard)How hard is what comes next? →03 / 07Half-time → full-time80%won after leading at half-time (32 of 40)Does it hold on to a half-time lead? →04 / 07Upsets against the model1upset in the team's favour in 2025-26 ↺ (expected 0.3)How often did it surprise the model? →05 / 07Exact scores2–1the team's most common score (17 of 122 matches)What score do its matches end with most? →06 / 07Top scorers2Johan Manzambi, the team's top league scorerWho scores its goals? →07 / 07Elo ratings1569Elo rating: #5 in Premier LeagueHow strong is it, really? →

Elo rating over time n = 122

The team's Elo rating after every match in our database (green line) next to the average rating of the teams playing the same season of its league (grey line). The rating goes up after a result better than expected and down after a worse one; the line breaks where the team played outside the leagues we follow. Hover or tap the chart for a single match; every value is also in the table below.

1569now
1599highest27 Dec 2025
1492lowest12 Aug 2023
+11last 10 matches
Aston Villa FCleague average (teams of the same season)
14801500152015401560158016002023-242024-252025-262026-27
All ratings (table)
dateopponentscoreratingchangeleague avg.
24 Oct 2026Man City (H)2–11569+61538
17 Oct 2026Newcastle (A)1–01563+51538
10 Oct 2026Brentford (H)2–21557−11538
19 Sep 2026Tottenham (A)3–21558+41538
12 Sep 2026Nottingham (H)1–21554−61538
5 Sep 2026Hull City (A)0–0156001538
31 Aug 2026Arsenal (H)0–11560−41538
23 Aug 2026Brighton Hove (A)0–41564−91538
24 May 2026Man City (A)2–11573+71528
15 May 2026Liverpool (H)4–21566+81528
10 May 2026Burnley (A)2–21558−21528
3 May 2026Tottenham (H)1–21560−71528
25 Apr 2026Fulham (A)0–11567−51528
19 Apr 2026Sunderland (H)4–31572+31528
12 Apr 2026Nottingham (A)1–1156901528
22 Mar 2026West Ham (H)2–01569+41528
15 Mar 2026Man United (A)1–31565−71528
4 Mar 2026Chelsea (H)1–41572−101528
27 Feb 2026Wolverhampton (A)0–21582−111528
21 Feb 2026Leeds United (H)1–11592−21528
11 Feb 2026Brighton Hove (H)1–01594+31528
7 Feb 2026Bournemouth (A)1–1159101528
1 Feb 2026Brentford (H)0–11591−71528
25 Jan 2026Newcastle (A)2–01598+81528
18 Jan 2026Everton (H)0–11590−71528
7 Jan 2026Crystal Palace (A)0–0159701528
3 Jan 2026Nottingham (H)3–11597+41528
30 Dec 2025Arsenal (A)1–41593−51528
27 Dec 2025Chelsea (A)2–11599+61528
21 Dec 2025Man United (H)2–11593+31528
14 Dec 2025West Ham (A)3–21590+41528
6 Dec 2025Arsenal (H)2–11586+61528
3 Dec 2025Brighton Hove (A)4–31580+51528
30 Nov 2025Wolverhampton (H)1–01575+21528
23 Nov 2025Leeds United (A)2–11573+41528
9 Nov 2025Bournemouth (H)4–01568+71528
1 Nov 2025Liverpool (A)0–21561−51528
26 Oct 2025Man City (H)1–01565+61528
19 Oct 2025Tottenham (A)2–11560+51528
5 Oct 2025Burnley (H)2–11555+21528
28 Sep 2025Fulham (H)3–11552+61528
21 Sep 2025Sunderland (A)1–1154701528
13 Sep 2025Everton (A)0–0154701528
31 Aug 2025Crystal Palace (H)0–31546−111528
23 Aug 2025Brentford (A)0–11557−51528
16 Aug 2025Newcastle (H)0–01562−11528
25 May 2025Man United (A)0–21563−91516
16 May 2025Tottenham (H)2–01572+51516
10 May 2025Bournemouth (A)1–01567+51516
3 May 2025Fulham (H)1–01561+41516
22 Apr 2025Man City (A)1–21558−31516
19 Apr 2025Newcastle (H)4–11561+81516
12 Apr 2025Southampton (A)3–01553+61516
5 Apr 2025Nottingham (H)2–11547+41516
2 Apr 2025Brighton Hove (A)3–01543+101516
8 Mar 2025Brentford (A)1–01533+51516
25 Feb 2025Crystal Palace (A)1–41528−81516
22 Feb 2025Chelsea (H)2–11536+51516
19 Feb 2025Liverpool (H)2–21531+11516
15 Feb 2025Ipswich Town (H)1–11530−21516
1 Feb 2025Wolverhampton (A)0–21532−91516
26 Jan 2025West Ham (H)1–11541−21516
18 Jan 2025Arsenal (A)2–21543+21516
15 Jan 2025Everton (A)1–01541+51516
4 Jan 2025Leicester City (H)2–11536+31516
30 Dec 2024Brighton Hove (H)2–21533−11516
26 Dec 2024Newcastle (A)0–31534−81516
21 Dec 2024Man City (H)2–11542+61516
14 Dec 2024Nottingham (A)1–21536−51516
7 Dec 2024Southampton (H)1–01541+31516
4 Dec 2024Brentford (H)3–11538+51516
1 Dec 2024Chelsea (A)0–31533−71516
23 Nov 2024Crystal Palace (H)2–21540−21516
9 Nov 2024Liverpool (A)0–21541−51516
3 Nov 2024Tottenham (A)1–41546−81516
26 Oct 2024Bournemouth (H)1–11554−21516
19 Oct 2024Fulham (A)3–11555+71516
6 Oct 2024Man United (H)0–01548−11516
29 Sep 2024Ipswich Town (A)2–2154901516
21 Sep 2024Wolverhampton (H)3–11549+51516
14 Sep 2024Everton (H)3–21545+31516
31 Aug 2024Leicester City (A)2–11542+51516
24 Aug 2024Arsenal (H)0–21537−71516
17 Aug 2024West Ham (A)2–11543+51516
19 May 2024Crystal Palace (A)0–51538−101500
13 May 2024Liverpool (H)3–3154901500
5 May 2024Brighton Hove (A)0–11549−51500
27 Apr 2024Chelsea (H)2–21554−11500
21 Apr 2024Bournemouth (H)3–11555+51500
14 Apr 2024Arsenal (A)2–01550+101500
6 Apr 2024Brentford (H)3–31540−21500
3 Apr 2024Man City (A)1–41542−61500
30 Mar 2024Wolverhampton (H)2–01548+61500
17 Mar 2024West Ham (A)1–1154301500
10 Mar 2024Tottenham (H)0–41543−111500
2 Mar 2024Luton Town (A)3–21554+41500
24 Feb 2024Nottingham (H)4–21549+51500
17 Feb 2024Fulham (A)2–11544+51500
11 Feb 2024Man United (H)1–21540−61500
3 Feb 2024Sheffield Utd (A)5–01546+81500
30 Jan 2024Newcastle (H)1–31538−101500
14 Jan 2024Everton (A)0–0154701500
30 Dec 2023Burnley (H)3–21548+31500
26 Dec 2023Man United (A)2–31545−51500
22 Dec 2023Sheffield Utd (H)1–11550−21500
17 Dec 2023Brentford (A)2–11552+51500
9 Dec 2023Arsenal (H)1–01547+41500
6 Dec 2023Man City (H)1–01543+41500
3 Dec 2023Bournemouth (A)2–2153801500
26 Nov 2023Tottenham (A)2–11538+61500
12 Nov 2023Fulham (H)3–11533+51500
5 Nov 2023Nottingham (A)0–21527−71500
29 Oct 2023Luton Town (H)3–11535+51500
22 Oct 2023West Ham (H)4–11530+71500
8 Oct 2023Wolverhampton (A)1–1152201500
30 Sep 2023Brighton Hove (H)6–11522+91500
24 Sep 2023Chelsea (A)1–01513+61500
16 Sep 2023Crystal Palace (H)3–11508+71500
3 Sep 2023Liverpool (A)0–31501−71500
27 Aug 2023Burnley (A)3–11508+81500
20 Aug 2023Everton (H)4–01500+81500
12 Aug 2023Newcastle (A)1–51492—1500

Team fingerprint

Six things that happened in the team's last 20 league matches in our database, next to how often they happened across the whole league over one year (the period is in the legend). The shape shows what happens to this team more or less often than across the league. It is not a rating and does not say what comes next.

Aston Villa FCleague, last 12 months · n = 374

league · Wins: 268 of 748 (36%)league · Scores: 558 of 748 (75%)league · 3+ goals: 205 of 374 (55%)league · Both teams score: 210 of 374 (56%)league · Concedes: 558 of 748 (75%)league · Leads at half-time: 225 of 748 (30%)team · Wins: 7 of 20 (35%)team · Scores: 15 of 20 (75%)team · 3+ goals: 12 of 20 (60%)team · Both teams score: 13 of 20 (65%)team · Concedes: 17 of 20 (85%)team · Leads at half-time: 6 of 20 (30%)WinsScores3+ goalsBoth teamsscoreConcedesLeads athalf-time
Aston Villa FCleague
Winswon the match35%7 of 2018–57%36%268 of 74832–39%
Scoresscored at least once75%15 of 2053–89%75%558 of 74871–78%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)60%12 of 2039–78%55%205 of 37450–60%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)65%13 of 2043–82%56%210 of 37451–61%
Concedesconceded at least once85%17 of 2064–95%75%558 of 74871–78%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)30%6 of 2015–52%30%225 of 74827–33%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form

The team's recent results this season: wins, draws, losses, points per match and goals over the last 5 and up to 10 matches, home and away. What happened, not what comes next.

Last 5 matches n = 5

LWDWW
10points
2.00per match
3-1-1W-D-L
9scored
7conceded

Last 8 matches n = 8

LLDLWDWW
11points
1.38per match
3-2-3W-D-L
9scored
12conceded

Home, last 5

Not enough data yet (4 of 5 matches needed).

Away, last 5

Not enough data yet (4 of 5 matches needed).

Streaks n = 8

Current and longest streaks in the sample: consecutive matches unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet, or with both teams scoring. A long streak says nothing about the next match.

4unbeaten · currentlongest in the sample: 4
5scoring · currentlongest in the sample: 5
0clean sheets · currentlongest in the sample: 1
1both teams scored · currentlongest in the sample: 3

Goals: home and away n = 8

How the team's matches usually end this season, split into home and away: how often both teams scored, how often there were 3 or more goals (2-1 yes, 1-1 no), how often it kept a clean sheet and how often it failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches (home = the league's home teams, away = the visitors).

matchesscored / matchconceded / matchboth scored3+ goalsclean sheetfailed to score
All matches81.12league 1.421.50league 1.4250%4 of 8 · league 52%62%5 of 8 · league 52%25%2 of 8 · league 27%38%3 of 8 · league 27%
Home41.25league 1.571.50league 1.2775%3 of 4 · league 52%75%3 of 4 · league 52%0%0 of 4 · league 25%25%1 of 4 · league 29%
Away41.00league 1.271.50league 1.5725%1 of 4 · league 52%50%2 of 4 · league 52%50%2 of 4 · league 29%50%2 of 4 · league 25%

Every team in the league: form, home, away, goals →

First half vs second half n = 8

Goals scored and conceded in the first half versus the second, from half-time scores. Shows in which part of the match the team has been more active or more exposed.

scoredconcededscored per matchconceded per match
1st half450.500.62
2nd half570.620.88

From half-time scores, 8 matches.

Goals by 15-minute interval · Late goals (after minute 75)

When the goals come: the match split into 15-minute slices, with goals scored and conceded in each. Stoppage time counts in the last slice.

Not available for this league (the free data source has no goal minutes).

Coaches n = 1

The team's coaches, with the dates they started and left according to Wikidata, and the league matches in our database played under each, with points per match. A match where the coach is not known (missing or conflicting data) counts for no one. The current coach is shown only when football-data.org names the same person.

CoachFromToMatchesPts per match
Unai Emery1 Nov 2022now1221.72
Whole period in our database12 Aug 202324 Oct 20261221.72

What coach changes show across all cases →

Last matches n = 8

The most recent matches played, with score and opponent, newest first.

24 Oct 2026HomeHManchester City FC2–1
17 Oct 2026AwayANewcastle United FC1–0
10 Oct 2026HomeHBrentford FC2–2
19 Sep 2026AwayATottenham Hotspur FC3–2
12 Sep 2026HomeHNottingham Forest FC1–2
5 Sep 2026AwayAHull City AFC0–0
31 Aug 2026HomeHArsenal FC0–1
23 Aug 2026AwayABrighton & Hove Albion FC0–4

Next matches n = 5

The team's next scheduled matches, with kick-off time. The Stats button opens both teams' form, the head-to-head record and the probability of the main events.

HomeHFulham FC
AwayAManchester United FC
HomeHSunderland AFC
AwayAIpswich Town FC
HomeHEverton FC

kick-off (UTC)

The team's scorers · 2026-27 n = 5

The team's players who have scored in the league this season, from the official data source. Below: their goals next to the goals the team has scored in league matches; any difference is shown as it is (the source has no match events, so it does not say who scored the rest).

Playergoalsmatchespenaltiesassists
Johan Manzambi24—2
Nicolas Jackson26——
Alysson16——
Emiliano Buendía17——
John McGinn17—2

The players in the list have 7 goals between them; the team has scored 9 in the league. A 2-goal difference between the source's scorer list and the results; the source does not say who scored the rest. “—” = the source gives no value.

All league top scorers →

Head-to-head n = 17

Opponents this team has met at least 3 times in our database; each link opens the full head-to-head page with every meeting.

Updated 25 Oct 2026