Aston Villa FC – Fulham FC

Premier League · Matchday 9 · 31 Oct 2026 20:00 UTC

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

47%1 · Aston Villa≈ 1 in 2.12

28%X≈ 1 in 3.55

25%2 · Fulham≈ 1 in 4.07

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side have scored in each of their last 5 matches. The home side are 5 points above the bottom three with 30 matches left. The model estimates 47% for a home win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

League position6 vs 13

Elo rating1569 vs 1499

Last 5LWDWW homeDDLWW away

Rest days7 vs 7

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 13% · 1–0: 11% · 0–0: 9%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	9%	7%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	11%	13%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	9%	9%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 57% vs 40%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Aston Villa	Fulham	League
League position	6th of 20 · 11 pts	13th of 20 · 8 pts	—
Elo rating	1569	1499	—
Last 5	LWDWW	DDLWW	—
Points rate (last 10)	57%	40%	45%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.5	1.1	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.5	1.1	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	47%	33%	50% · 40%
Both teams score (10)	6 of 10	5 of 10	56%
3+ goals in the match (10)	7 of 10	3 of 10	55%
Days of rest	7	7	—

Home side at home · visitors away n = 4 · 4

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 1.25 vs 0.50

	Aston Villa at home	Fulham away
matches	4	4
scored / match	1.25league 1.57	0.50league 1.27
conceded / match	1.50league 1.27	0.75league 1.57
both scored	75%3 of 4 · league 52%	25%1 of 4 · league 52%
3+ goals	75%3 of 4 · league 52%	25%1 of 4 · league 52%
clean sheet	0%0 of 4 · league 25%	50%2 of 4 · league 29%
failed to score	25%1 of 4 · league 29%	50%2 of 4 · league 25%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 35% vs 35% · league 35%

Aston VillaFulhamleague, year before the match · n = 365

	Aston Villa	league	Fulham
Winswon the match	35%7 of 2018–57%	35%259 of 73032–39%	35%7 of 2018–57%
Scoresscored at least once	75%15 of 2053–89%	75%544 of 73071–78%	60%12 of 2039–78%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	60%12 of 2039–78%	55%199 of 36549–60%	35%7 of 2018–57%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	65%13 of 2043–82%	56%205 of 36551–61%	40%8 of 2022–61%
Concedesconceded at least once	85%17 of 2064–95%	75%544 of 73071–78%	65%13 of 2043–82%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	30%6 of 2015–52%	30%218 of 73027–33%	25%5 of 2011–47%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 10 vs 8

Aston Villa · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LWDWW

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

9:7goals

Fulham · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DDLWW

8pts

2-2-1W-D-L

4:3goals

Aston Villa · Last 5 at home n = 5

WLLDW

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

9:8goals

Fulham · Last 5 away n = 5

DLDLW

5pts

1-2-2W-D-L

3:4goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 7 → 10 vs 4 → 8

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Aston Villa	Fulham
Points (of 15)	7 → 10 ▲	4 → 8 ▲
Goals scored per match	1.2 → 1.8 ▲	1.4 → 0.8 ▼
Goals conceded per match	1.6 → 1.4 ▼	1.6 → 0.6 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1616 → 1548 easier opponents	1496 → 1517 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+9 (1569)	+7 (1499)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 7 vs 7

	Aston Villa	Fulham
days since last match	7	7
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	2	1
position today	6 (11 pts)	13 (8 pts)
points off 1st	10	13
points off top 4	2	5
points above bottom 3	5	2
matches left (incl. this one)	30	30
simulator impact	38 pp	38 pp
coach (league matches led before)	Unai Emery since 1 Nov 2022 · 122 matches	Álvaro Arbeloa since 8 Jul 2026 · 8 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 160 km

Weather: the forecast appears 3 days before kick-off.

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Aston Villa 4-0-1 (n = 5)

	home		away
25 Apr 2026	Fulham	1–0	Aston Villa
28 Sep 2025	Aston Villa	3–1	Fulham
3 May 2025	Aston Villa	1–0	Fulham
19 Oct 2024	Fulham	1–3	Aston Villa
17 Feb 2024	Fulham	1–2	Aston Villa

All 6 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Aston Villa FC · unbeaten: 4

		now	longest in our database
Aston Villa FC	unbeaten	4	8
Aston Villa FC	scoring	5	13
Fulham FC	scoring	4	15

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	9%	7%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	11%	13%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	9%	9%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	9%	7%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	11%	13%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	9%	9%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	9%	7%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	11%	13%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	9%	9%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%