RadarPremier League · Season simulator
Estimate based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining 305 matches, using the model's current team strengths. It does not account for transfers or future injuries.
2026-27 run 25 Oct 2026 07:17 · seed 1792912621
Each row is a team. We played out all remaining matches on a computer 10,000 times, with the model's current strengths; the percentages say in how many of those 10,000 simulated seasons the team finished 1st, in the top 4 and so on. “Expected pts” = average final points, “Mean pos.” = average final place.
| Team | Pts now | Exp. pts | Avg. pos | 1st | Top 4 | Top 6 | Bottom 3 | Finishing position distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal FC | 21 | 81.7 | 1.5 | 57%≈ 1 in 1.74 | 100%≈ 1 in 1.00 | 100%≈ 1 in 1.00 | 0% | |
| Manchester City FC | 21 | 78.9 | 1.8 | 38%≈ 1 in 2.64 | 99%≈ 1 in 1.01 | 100%≈ 1 in 1.00 | 0% | |
| Brighton & Hove Albion FC | 16 | 67.9 | 3.6 | 4%≈ 1 in 25.32 | 80%≈ 1 in 1.26 | 94%≈ 1 in 1.07 | 0% | |
| Liverpool FC | 12 | 62.3 | 5.3 | 1%≈ 1 in 182 | 47%≈ 1 in 2.11 | 76%≈ 1 in 1.31 | <1% | |
| Chelsea FC | 13 | 58.0 | 6.9 | <1% | 23%≈ 1 in 4.32 | 53%≈ 1 in 1.87 | <1% | |
| Brentford FC | 10 | 55.3 | 8.0 | <1% | 14%≈ 1 in 7.08 | 40%≈ 1 in 2.53 | 1%≈ 1 in 161 | |
| Aston Villa FC | 11 | 54.9 | 8.3 | <1% | 12%≈ 1 in 8.48 | 35%≈ 1 in 2.89 | 1%≈ 1 in 128 | |
| Hull City AFC (s) | 9 | 51.5 | 9.9 | <1% | 5%≈ 1 in 19.42 | 20%≈ 1 in 5.12 | 2%≈ 1 in 48.08 | |
| Leeds United FC | 10 | 52.3 | 9.4 | <1% | 7%≈ 1 in 14.93 | 23%≈ 1 in 4.33 | 2%≈ 1 in 62.89 | |
| Manchester United FC | 7 | 52.0 | 9.6 | <1% | 7%≈ 1 in 14.93 | 23%≈ 1 in 4.43 | 2%≈ 1 in 47.62 | |
| AFC Bournemouth | 6 | 49.2 | 11.2 | <1% | 3%≈ 1 in 37.04 | 12%≈ 1 in 8.26 | 5%≈ 1 in 21.46 | |
| Newcastle United FC | 8 | 48.5 | 11.6 | 0% | 2%≈ 1 in 49.26 | 10%≈ 1 in 10.27 | 6%≈ 1 in 16.78 | |
| Everton FC | 10 | 47.1 | 12.3 | 0% | 1%≈ 1 in 89.29 | 6%≈ 1 in 15.53 | 7%≈ 1 in 14.35 | |
| Nottingham Forest FC | 6 | 44.1 | 13.8 | 0% | <1% | 3%≈ 1 in 32.26 | 16%≈ 1 in 6.40 | |
| Tottenham Hotspur FC | 9 | 43.3 | 14.3 | 0% | <1% | 2%≈ 1 in 46.30 | 19%≈ 1 in 5.29 | |
| Fulham FC | 8 | 43.4 | 14.2 | 0% | <1% | 2%≈ 1 in 46.73 | 18%≈ 1 in 5.64 | |
| Crystal Palace FC | 7 | 40.8 | 15.6 | 0% | <1% | 1%≈ 1 in 83.33 | 33%≈ 1 in 3.07 | |
| Sunderland AFC | 4 | 38.7 | 16.4 | 0% | <1% | 1%≈ 1 in 192 | 44%≈ 1 in 2.29 | |
| Coventry City FC | 6 | 35.5 | 17.7 | 0% | <1% | <1% | 65%≈ 1 in 1.53 | |
| Ipswich Town FC | 10 | 32.8 | 18.7 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 81%≈ 1 in 1.23 |
(s) = short history: fewer than 8 matches in the model window, strengths shrunk toward the league average. Ties inside a simulation are broken by points, goal difference, goals scored, then at random. How good is the model?
European places 2027/28 run 25 Oct 2026 07:17
Which place in next season's European competitions the final league position gives, according to UEFA's access list (still provisional). The percentage says in how many of the 10,000 simulated seasons the team finished in a position that gives that place; “any European competition” adds them up. Two routes we cannot know yet are left out: the national cup winner (if it has already qualified through the league, its place passes to the next team in the table) and the two extra Champions League places for the two best countries in the current European season (EPS). Where the Champions League places are simply the top of the table, the column matches the one in the table above.
| Team | Champions Leagueleague phase · places 1–4 | Europa Leagueleague phase · 5th place | Conference Leagueplay-off · 6th place | Any European competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 100%≈ 1 in 1.00 | <1% | <1% | 100%≈ 1 in 1.00 |
| Man City | 99%≈ 1 in 1.01 | 1%≈ 1 in 118 | <1% | 100%≈ 1 in 1.00 |
| Brighton Hove | 80%≈ 1 in 1.26 | 9%≈ 1 in 10.82 | 5%≈ 1 in 20.00 | 94%≈ 1 in 1.07 |
| Liverpool | 47%≈ 1 in 2.11 | 18%≈ 1 in 5.65 | 11%≈ 1 in 9.03 | 76%≈ 1 in 1.31 |
| Chelsea | 23%≈ 1 in 4.32 | 16%≈ 1 in 6.37 | 15%≈ 1 in 6.83 | 53%≈ 1 in 1.87 |
| Brentford | 14%≈ 1 in 7.08 | 13%≈ 1 in 7.87 | 13%≈ 1 in 7.84 | 40%≈ 1 in 2.53 |
| Aston Villa | 12%≈ 1 in 8.48 | 11%≈ 1 in 9.19 | 12%≈ 1 in 8.41 | 35%≈ 1 in 2.89 |
| Hull City | 5%≈ 1 in 19.42 | 6%≈ 1 in 15.75 | 8%≈ 1 in 12.44 | 20%≈ 1 in 5.12 |
| Leeds United | 7%≈ 1 in 14.93 | 7%≈ 1 in 14.08 | 9%≈ 1 in 10.75 | 23%≈ 1 in 4.33 |
| Man United | 7%≈ 1 in 14.93 | 7%≈ 1 in 13.66 | 9%≈ 1 in 11.67 | 23%≈ 1 in 4.43 |
| Bournemouth | 3%≈ 1 in 37.04 | 4%≈ 1 in 24.21 | 5%≈ 1 in 18.98 | 12%≈ 1 in 8.26 |
| Newcastle | 2%≈ 1 in 49.26 | 3%≈ 1 in 33.22 | 5%≈ 1 in 21.28 | 10%≈ 1 in 10.27 |
| Everton | 1%≈ 1 in 89.29 | 2%≈ 1 in 47.39 | 3%≈ 1 in 31.15 | 6%≈ 1 in 15.53 |
| Nottingham | <1% | 1%≈ 1 in 106 | 2%≈ 1 in 59.17 | 3%≈ 1 in 32.26 |
| Tottenham | <1% | 1%≈ 1 in 156 | 1%≈ 1 in 83.33 | 2%≈ 1 in 46.30 |
| Fulham | <1% | 1%≈ 1 in 179 | 1%≈ 1 in 75.76 | 2%≈ 1 in 46.73 |
| Crystal Palace | <1% | <1% | 1%≈ 1 in 141 | 1%≈ 1 in 83.33 |
| Sunderland | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1%≈ 1 in 192 |
| Coventry City | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Ipswich Town | 0% | <1% | 0% | <1% |
Source: UEFA circular letter No 54/2026 of 9 Sep 2026, access list for the 2027/28 season — provisional; the final version comes before the end of the current European season. The association is ranked 1st in UEFA's country coefficients (five-season association coefficients at the end of the 2025/26 season, i.e. 2021/22–2025/26). The national cup winner gets a place in the Europa League (league phase); if it has already qualified through the league, its place passes to the next team in the table (Europa League regulations, Article 3). Not included: the two extra Champions League places (EPS) for the two best countries in the current European season, known only at its end.
What the next matches change 25 Oct 2026 – 1 Nov 2026 · n = 14
What changes with the result: for every match in the coming days, each team's chances (of 1st place, the top 4 or 6, the bottom 3) if the match ends 1 = home win, X = draw, 2 = away win, next to “now”. The figures come from the same 10,000 simulations, split by that match's result; we show the target the result matters most for. “Impact” = by how many percentage points the two teams' chances can move in total; matches are ordered by it.
| Match | Team | Target | now | if 1 | if X | if 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool – Brighton Hove25 Oct 2026 14:00 · impact 52 pp | Liverpool | top 4 | 47% | 56% | 45% | 39% |
| Brighton Hove | top 4 | 80% | 73% | 79% | 88% | |
| Chelsea – Man United31 Oct 2026 12:30 · impact 51 pp | Chelsea | top 6 | 53% | 61% | 50% | 46% |
| Man United | top 6 | 23% | 17% | 23% | 30% | |
| Hull City – Brentford25 Oct 2026 14:00 · impact 47 pp | Hull City | top 6 | 20% | 26% | 17% | 13% |
| Brentford | top 6 | 40% | 33% | 39% | 48% | |
| Man United – Bournemouth25 Oct 2026 14:00 · impact 40 pp | Man United | top 6 | 23% | 28% | 21% | 16% |
| Bournemouth | top 6 | 12% | 9% | 11% | 18% | |
| Liverpool – Arsenal1 Nov 2026 16:30 · impact 40 pp | Liverpool | top 4 | 47% | 56% | 47% | 43% |
| Arsenal | 1st place | 57% | 48% | 56% | 63% | |
| Brentford – Nottingham31 Oct 2026 15:00 · impact 40 pp | Brentford | top 6 | 40% | 46% | 37% | 31% |
| Nottingham | bottom 3 | 16% | 19% | 15% | 10% | |
| Coventry City – Sunderland31 Oct 2026 15:00 · impact 40 pp | Coventry City | bottom 3 | 65% | 56% | 66% | 74% |
| Sunderland | bottom 3 | 44% | 51% | 46% | 34% | |
| Bournemouth – Leeds United31 Oct 2026 15:00 · impact 39 pp | Bournemouth | top 6 | 12% | 16% | 11% | 8% |
| Leeds United | top 6 | 23% | 18% | 22% | 31% | |
| Aston Villa – Fulham31 Oct 2026 20:00 · impact 38 pp | Aston Villa | top 6 | 35% | 40% | 32% | 27% |
| Fulham | bottom 3 | 18% | 21% | 17% | 12% | |
| Sunderland – Leeds United25 Oct 2026 16:30 · impact 37 pp | Sunderland | bottom 3 | 44% | 35% | 44% | 50% |
| Leeds United | top 6 | 23% | 18% | 21% | 30% | |
| Man City – Brighton Hove31 Oct 2026 15:00 · impact 37 pp | Man City | 1st place | 38% | 44% | 33% | 28% |
| Brighton Hove | top 4 | 80% | 77% | 79% | 87% | |
| Tottenham – Crystal Palace31 Oct 2026 17:30 · impact 36 pp | Tottenham | bottom 3 | 19% | 13% | 21% | 26% |
| Crystal Palace | bottom 3 | 33% | 39% | 32% | 23% | |
| Crystal Palace – Newcastle25 Oct 2026 14:00 · impact 34 pp | Crystal Palace | bottom 3 | 33% | 25% | 35% | 38% |
| Newcastle | top 6 | 10% | 6% | 9% | 14% | |
| Hull City – Ipswich Town31 Oct 2026 15:00 · impact 31 pp | Hull City | top 6 | 20% | 23% | 15% | 14% |
| Ipswich Town | bottom 3 | 81% | 83% | 81% | 71% |
The round in scenarios
You choose the results of the coming matches (1 = home win, X = draw, 2 = away win), or choose nothing. The table shows the standings on points if that happens (goal difference stays as it is now, since there are no scores) and, out of the 10,000 simulations, only those in which your scenario occurred: in how many each team finished 1st, in the top 4 or 6, in the bottom 3. Nothing is pre-selected and nothing is a recommendation.
…
How the chances moved n = 8
Title chances of the top 6 teams at the latest runs. Runs happen daily, not only after rounds: between two runs with the same matches played, differences of 1–2 pp are simulation noise, not the effect of results.
| run | Matches played | Arsenal | Man City | Brighton Hove | Liverpool | Chelsea | Brentford |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct 2026 07:17 | 75 | 57% | 38% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 25 Oct 2026 06:17 | 75 | 59% | 37% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 25 Oct 2026 06:05 | 75 | 59% | 36% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 25 Oct 2026 05:17 | 75 | 60% | 36% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 25 Oct 2026 04:17 | 75 | 59% | 36% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 25 Oct 2026 03:17 | 75 | 59% | 37% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 25 Oct 2026 02:17 | 75 | 60% | 36% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 25 Oct 2026 01:17 | 73 | 54% | 41% | 4% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:17