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Manchester United FC

Premier League · season 2026-27 · 7 matches

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15League position15 of 20 in the regular season table (7 points, 7 played).
1556Elo ratingGoes up when the team gets more from its matches than expected, down when it gets less. Rank 6 of 20 in Premier League. Own rating (H = 50, K = 10), parameters calibrated on 624 Liga 1 match (Brier 0.1582 vs 0.1679) and used in every league.

How it is doing now

In short, from results: the last 5 matches (W = win, D = draw, L = loss, most recent on the right), the points rate (how many of the possible points it took, next to the league average), the state (how many of 3 measures are above the league average) and what happens to it most consistently.

Man United15th of 20Above average 2 of 3 measures above the benchmarkLast 5DLDDDPoints rate · last 1047%league 45%Goal difference +4 in the last 10 · Elo −6.0 in the last 5Most consistent · last 20Nothing above the league rate in the cautious reading.
How the box is calculated
  • Points rate = the points taken in the last 10 matches, divided by the possible ones (3 per match). League average = the same calculation over all the league's matches in the 365 days before.
  • The state counts 3 measures: (1) the points rate over the last 10 matches is above the league average; (2) the goal difference over the last 10 matches is positive; (3) the Elo rating rose over the last 5 matches (Elo accounts for the opponents' strength). Equal to the benchmark does not count.
  • 3 of 3 = good form · 2 = above average · 1 = below average · 0 = poor form. The state appears from 6 consecutive matches in our data.
  • Most consistent = at most 3 things from the last 20 matches that happened more often than in the league even in the cautious reading (the lower bound of the 95% interval is above the league rate). If there is none, the box says so.
  • “Consecutive” = no break longer than 180 days: for a team back in the league, the count starts from its return.
  • The state describes results so far, not what comes next and not the team's morale.

Next match

The team's next scheduled match, with the model's estimate for 1 (home win), X (draw) and 2 (away win). An estimate, not advice; it is frozen before kick-off and its record is public.

Manchester United FC – AFC Bournemouth

· Home

45%1≈ 1 in 2.20
26%X≈ 1 in 3.86
29%2≈ 1 in 3.49

Explore Manchester United FC

The analysis pages this team appears on. Each card shows the team's figure taken from the very page it opens; open it to see it next to the other teams and the league benchmark.

01 / 07Season simulator22%chance of a top-6 finishWhere does its season end? →02 / 07Fixture difficulty0.50difficulty of the next 5 matches (from 0, easy, to 1, hard)How hard is what comes next? →03 / 07Half-time → full-time78%won after leading at half-time (25 of 32)Does it hold on to a half-time lead? →04 / 07Upsets against the model3upsets in the team's favour in 2025-26 ↺ (expected 0.9)How often did it surprise the model? →05 / 07Exact scores1–1the team's most common score (14 of 121 matches)What score do its matches end with most? →06 / 07Top scorers4Bryan Mbeumo, the team's top league scorerWho scores its goals? →07 / 07Elo ratings1556Elo rating: #6 in Premier LeagueHow strong is it, really? →

Elo rating over time n = 121

The team's Elo rating after every match in our database (green line) next to the average rating of the teams playing the same season of its league (grey line). The rating goes up after a result better than expected and down after a worse one; the line breaks where the team played outside the leagues we follow. Hover or tap the chart for a single match; every value is also in the table below.

1556now
1566highest24 May 2026
1467lowest16 May 2025
+4last 10 matches
Manchester United FCleague average (teams of the same season)
14601480150015201540156015802023-242024-252025-262026-27
All ratings (table)
dateopponentscoreratingchangeleague avg.
18 Oct 2026Leeds United (A)1–1155601538
10 Oct 2026Tottenham (H)1–11556−21538
20 Sep 2026Fulham (A)1–1155801538
13 Sep 2026Man City (H)0–11558−41538
6 Sep 2026Everton (A)2–2156201538
30 Aug 2026Ipswich Town (H)5–21562+41538
22 Aug 2026Hull City (A)0–21558−81538
24 May 2026Brighton Hove (A)3–01566+101528
17 May 2026Nottingham (H)3–21556+41528
9 May 2026Sunderland (A)0–0155201528
3 May 2026Liverpool (H)3–21553+61528
27 Apr 2026Brentford (H)2–11547+41528
18 Apr 2026Chelsea (A)1–01543+61528
13 Apr 2026Leeds United (H)1–21537−61528
20 Mar 2026Bournemouth (A)2–2154301528
15 Mar 2026Aston Villa (H)3–11542+71528
4 Mar 2026Newcastle (A)1–21535−41528
1 Mar 2026Crystal Palace (H)2–11540+41528
23 Feb 2026Everton (A)1–01536+51528
10 Feb 2026West Ham (A)1–1153001528
7 Feb 2026Tottenham (H)2–01531+61528
1 Feb 2026Fulham (H)3–21525+41528
25 Jan 2026Arsenal (A)3–21521+81528
17 Jan 2026Man City (H)2–01513+101528
7 Jan 2026Burnley (A)2–21503−11528
4 Jan 2026Leeds United (A)1–11504+11528
30 Dec 2025Wolverhampton (H)1–11503−21528
26 Dec 2025Newcastle (H)1–01506+51528
21 Dec 2025Aston Villa (A)1–21500−31528
15 Dec 2025Bournemouth (H)4–4150401528
8 Dec 2025Wolverhampton (A)4–11504+81528
4 Dec 2025West Ham (H)1–11496−11528
30 Nov 2025Crystal Palace (A)2–11498+71528
24 Nov 2025Everton (H)0–11491−61528
8 Nov 2025Tottenham (A)2–21497+11528
1 Nov 2025Nottingham (A)2–21496+11528
25 Oct 2025Brighton Hove (H)4–21495+71528
19 Oct 2025Liverpool (A)2–11488+81528
4 Oct 2025Sunderland (H)2–01480+71528
27 Sep 2025Brentford (A)1–31473−61528
20 Sep 2025Chelsea (H)2–11479+61528
14 Sep 2025Man City (A)0–31473−41528
30 Aug 2025Burnley (H)3–21477+31528
24 Aug 2025Fulham (A)1–11474+11528
17 Aug 2025Arsenal (H)0–11473−31528
25 May 2025Aston Villa (H)2–01476+91516
16 May 2025Chelsea (A)0–11467−31516
11 May 2025West Ham (H)0–21470−91516
4 May 2025Brentford (A)3–41479−41516
27 Apr 2025Bournemouth (A)1–11483+11516
20 Apr 2025Wolverhampton (H)0–11482−61516
13 Apr 2025Newcastle (A)1–41488−61516
6 Apr 2025Man City (H)0–01494+11516
1 Apr 2025Nottingham (A)0–11493−41516
16 Mar 2025Leicester City (A)3–01497+81516
9 Mar 2025Arsenal (H)1–11489+21516
26 Feb 2025Ipswich Town (H)3–21487+41516
22 Feb 2025Everton (A)2–21483+11516
16 Feb 2025Tottenham (A)0–11482−41516
2 Feb 2025Crystal Palace (H)0–21486−81516
26 Jan 2025Fulham (A)1–01495+61516
19 Jan 2025Brighton Hove (H)1–31489−81516
16 Jan 2025Southampton (H)3–11497+51516
5 Jan 2025Liverpool (A)2–21492+31516
30 Dec 2024Newcastle (H)0–21490−81516
26 Dec 2024Wolverhampton (A)0–21497−81516
22 Dec 2024Bournemouth (H)0–31505−101516
15 Dec 2024Man City (A)2–11515+71516
7 Dec 2024Nottingham (H)2–31508−61516
4 Dec 2024Arsenal (A)0–21514−41516
1 Dec 2024Everton (H)4–01518+71516
24 Nov 2024Ipswich Town (A)1–1151101516
10 Nov 2024Leicester City (H)3–01511+71516
3 Nov 2024Chelsea (H)1–1150401516
27 Oct 2024West Ham (A)1–21504−51516
19 Oct 2024Brentford (H)2–11509+41516
6 Oct 2024Aston Villa (A)0–01505+11516
29 Sep 2024Tottenham (H)0–31503−91516
21 Sep 2024Crystal Palace (A)0–0151301516
14 Sep 2024Southampton (A)3–01512+101516
1 Sep 2024Liverpool (H)0–31503−71516
24 Aug 2024Brighton Hove (A)1–21510−51516
16 Aug 2024Fulham (H)1–01515+41516
19 May 2024Brighton Hove (A)2–01511+81500
15 May 2024Newcastle (H)3–21503+51500
12 May 2024Arsenal (H)0–11498−41500
6 May 2024Crystal Palace (A)0–41502−91500
27 Apr 2024Burnley (H)1–11511−21500
24 Apr 2024Sheffield Utd (H)4–21513+41500
13 Apr 2024Bournemouth (A)2–2150901500
7 Apr 2024Liverpool (H)2–21509+11500
4 Apr 2024Chelsea (A)3–41508−41500
30 Mar 2024Brentford (A)1–1151201500
9 Mar 2024Everton (H)2–01513+61500
3 Mar 2024Man City (A)1–31507−51500
24 Feb 2024Fulham (H)1–21512−61500
18 Feb 2024Luton Town (A)2–11518+51500
11 Feb 2024Aston Villa (A)2–11513+61500
4 Feb 2024West Ham (H)3–01507+81500
1 Feb 2024Wolverhampton (A)4–31499+61500
14 Jan 2024Tottenham (H)2–2149301500
30 Dec 2023Nottingham (A)1–21493−51500
26 Dec 2023Aston Villa (H)3–21498+51500
23 Dec 2023West Ham (A)0–21493−61500
17 Dec 2023Liverpool (A)0–01499+21500
9 Dec 2023Bournemouth (H)0–31497−111500
6 Dec 2023Chelsea (H)2–11508+41500
2 Dec 2023Newcastle (A)0–11504−41500
26 Nov 2023Everton (A)3–01508+101500
11 Nov 2023Luton Town (H)1–01498+41500
4 Nov 2023Fulham (A)1–01494+61500
29 Oct 2023Man City (H)0–31488−91500
21 Oct 2023Sheffield Utd (A)2–11497+51500
7 Oct 2023Brentford (H)2–11492+41500
30 Sep 2023Crystal Palace (H)0–11488−61500
23 Sep 2023Burnley (A)1–01493+61500
16 Sep 2023Brighton Hove (H)1–31488−81500
3 Sep 2023Arsenal (A)1–31496−61500
26 Aug 2023Nottingham (H)3–21502+41500
19 Aug 2023Tottenham (A)0–21498−71500
14 Aug 2023Wolverhampton (H)1–01504—1500

Team fingerprint

Six things that happened in the team's last 20 league matches in our database, next to how often they happened across the whole league over one year (the period is in the legend). The shape shows what happens to this team more or less often than across the league. It is not a rating and does not say what comes next.

Manchester United FCleague, last 12 months · n = 374

league · Wins: 268 of 748 (36%)league · Scores: 558 of 748 (75%)league · 3+ goals: 205 of 374 (55%)league · Both teams score: 210 of 374 (56%)league · Concedes: 558 of 748 (75%)league · Leads at half-time: 225 of 748 (30%)team · Wins: 9 of 20 (45%)team · Scores: 17 of 20 (85%)team · 3+ goals: 11 of 20 (55%)team · Both teams score: 14 of 20 (70%)team · Concedes: 16 of 20 (80%)team · Leads at half-time: 6 of 20 (30%)WinsScores3+ goalsBoth teamsscoreConcedesLeads athalf-time
Manchester United FCleague
Winswon the match45%9 of 2026–66%36%268 of 74832–39%
Scoresscored at least once85%17 of 2064–95%75%558 of 74871–78%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)55%11 of 2034–74%55%205 of 37450–60%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)70%14 of 2048–85%56%210 of 37451–61%
Concedesconceded at least once80%16 of 2058–92%75%558 of 74871–78%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)30%6 of 2015–52%30%225 of 74827–33%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form

The team's recent results this season: wins, draws, losses, points per match and goals over the last 5 and up to 10 matches, home and away. What happened, not what comes next.

Last 5 matches n = 5

DLDDD
4points
0.80per match
0-4-1W-D-L
5scored
6conceded

Last 7 matches n = 7

LWDLDDD
7points
1.00per match
1-4-2W-D-L
10scored
10conceded

Home, last 5

Not enough data yet (3 of 5 matches needed).

Away, last 5

Not enough data yet (4 of 5 matches needed).

Streaks n = 7

Current and longest streaks in the sample: consecutive matches unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet, or with both teams scoring. A long streak says nothing about the next match.

3unbeaten · currentlongest in the sample: 3
3scoring · currentlongest in the sample: 3
0clean sheets · currentlongest in the sample: 0
3both teams scored · currentlongest in the sample: 3

Goals: home and away n = 7

How the team's matches usually end this season, split into home and away: how often both teams scored, how often there were 3 or more goals (2-1 yes, 1-1 no), how often it kept a clean sheet and how often it failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches (home = the league's home teams, away = the visitors).

matchesscored / matchconceded / matchboth scored3+ goalsclean sheetfailed to score
All matches71.43league 1.421.43league 1.4271%5 of 7 · league 52%29%2 of 7 · league 52%0%0 of 7 · league 27%29%2 of 7 · league 27%
Home32.00league 1.571.33league 1.2767%2 of 3 · league 52%33%1 of 3 · league 52%0%0 of 3 · league 25%33%1 of 3 · league 29%
Away41.00league 1.271.50league 1.5775%3 of 4 · league 52%25%1 of 4 · league 52%0%0 of 4 · league 29%25%1 of 4 · league 25%

Every team in the league: form, home, away, goals →

First half vs second half

Goals scored and conceded in the first half versus the second, from half-time scores. Shows in which part of the match the team has been more active or more exposed.

Not enough data yet (7 of 8 matches needed).

Goals by 15-minute interval · Late goals (after minute 75)

When the goals come: the match split into 15-minute slices, with goals scored and conceded in each. Stoppage time counts in the last slice.

Not available for this league (the free data source has no goal minutes).

Coaches n = 5

The team's coaches, with the dates they started and left according to Wikidata, and the league matches in our database played under each, with points per match. A match where the coach is not known (missing or conflicting data) counts for no one. The current coach is shown only when football-data.org names the same person.

CoachFromToMatchesPts per match
Michael Carrick13 Jan 2026now241.92
Darren Fletcher5 Jan 202613 Jan 202611.00
Ruben Amorim11 Nov 20245 Jan 2026471.23
Ruud van Nistelrooy28 Oct 202411 Nov 202422.00
Erik ten Hag1 Jul 202228 Oct 2024471.51
Whole period in our database14 Aug 202318 Oct 20261211.49

What coach changes show across all cases →

Last matches n = 7

The most recent matches played, with score and opponent, newest first.

18 Oct 2026AwayALeeds United FC1–1
10 Oct 2026HomeHTottenham Hotspur FC1–1
20 Sep 2026AwayAFulham FC1–1
13 Sep 2026HomeHManchester City FC0–1
6 Sep 2026AwayAEverton FC2–2
30 Aug 2026HomeHIpswich Town FC5–2
22 Aug 2026AwayAHull City AFC0–2

Next matches n = 5

The team's next scheduled matches, with kick-off time. The Stats button opens both teams' form, the head-to-head record and the probability of the main events.

HomeHAFC Bournemouth
AwayAChelsea FC
HomeHAston Villa FC
AwayALiverpool FC
HomeHBrentford FC

kick-off (UTC)

The team's scorers · 2026-27 n = 4

The team's players who have scored in the league this season, from the official data source. Below: their goals next to the goals the team has scored in league matches; any difference is shown as it is (the source has no match events, so it does not say who scored the rest).

Playergoalsmatchespenaltiesassists
Bryan Mbeumo47——
Bruno Fernandes3711
Benjamin Šeško14——
Matheus Cunha17—2

The players in the list have 9 goals between them; the team has scored 10 in the league. A 1-goal difference between the source's scorer list and the results; the source does not say who scored the rest. “—” = the source gives no value.

All league top scorers →

Head-to-head n = 19

Opponents this team has met at least 3 times in our database; each link opens the full head-to-head page with every meeting.

Updated 25 Oct 2026