Manchester United FC – AFC Bournemouth

Premier League · Matchday 8 · 25 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

45%1 · Man United≈ 1 in 2.20

26%X≈ 1 in 3.86

29%2 · Bournemouth≈ 1 in 3.49

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side are winless in their last 5 matches. The home side last played 3 days ago, the away side 7 days ago. The model estimates 45% for a home win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

League position15 vs 17

Elo rating1556 vs 1542

Last 5DLDDD homeDDLLW away

Rest days3 vs 7

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 12% · 2–1: 9% · 1–0: 7%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	7%	12%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	4%	5%	3%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 47% vs 37%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Man United	Bournemouth	League
League position	15th of 20 · 7 pts	17th of 20 · 6 pts	—
Elo rating	1556	1542	—
Last 5	DLDDD	DDLLW	—
Points rate (last 10)	47%	37%	45%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.6	1.2	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.2	1.5	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	73%	53%	50% · 40%
Both teams score (10)	6 of 10	7 of 10	56%
3+ goals in the match (10)	4 of 10	4 of 10	55%
Days of rest	3	7	—

Goals and the first half

For each condition: the chance estimated by the model (calibrated on past seasons, the same as in the filters and the Arena), how often it happened in the teams' last 10 matches and how often across the whole league over the last 12 months. “Both teams score” = each team scores at least once (1–1 counts, 2–0 does not). “Draw or 3+ goals” = the match ends level OR has at least 3 goals (1–1 and 2–1 count, 1–0 does not); for “draw or 4+”, 2–2 and 3–1 count, 2–1 does not.

3+ goals: model 56%

Condition	Model	The teams' last 10	League, 12 months
Both teams score	58%≈ 1 in 1.72	65%13 of 20	56%
2+ goals	80%≈ 1 in 1.26	80%16 of 20	79%
3+ goals	56%≈ 1 in 1.77	40%8 of 20	55%
At most 2 goals	44%≈ 1 in 2.30	60%12 of 20	45%
Home team scores	83%≈ 1 in 1.21	70%7 of 10	76%
Away team scores	74%≈ 1 in 1.34	90%9 of 10	73%
1st half: 1+ goal	73%≈ 1 in 1.37	65%13 of 20	70%
1st half: 2+ goals	36%≈ 1 in 2.76	30%6 of 20	35%
Draw or 3+ goals	74%≈ 1 in 1.36	75%15 of 20	74%
Draw or 4+ goals	51%≈ 1 in 1.97	65%13 of 20	50%

“Last 10”: each team's league matches, home or away (for “home / away team scores”, only that team's). Tap a condition to see every upcoming match where it happened often.

Home side at home · visitors away n = 3 · 3

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 2.00 vs 1.33

	Man United at home	Bournemouth away
matches	3	3
scored / match	2.00league 1.57	1.33league 1.27
conceded / match	1.33league 1.27	3.00league 1.57
both scored	67%2 of 3 · league 52%	100%3 of 3 · league 52%
3+ goals	33%1 of 3 · league 52%	100%3 of 3 · league 52%
clean sheet	0%0 of 3 · league 25%	0%0 of 3 · league 29%
failed to score	33%1 of 3 · league 29%	0%0 of 3 · league 25%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 45% vs 30% · league 36%

Man UnitedBournemouthleague, year before the match · n = 374

	Man United	league	Bournemouth
Winswon the match	45%9 of 2026–66%	36%268 of 74832–39%	30%6 of 2015–52%
Scoresscored at least once	85%17 of 2064–95%	75%558 of 74871–78%	80%16 of 2058–92%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	55%11 of 2034–74%	55%205 of 37450–60%	50%10 of 2030–70%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	70%14 of 2048–85%	56%210 of 37451–61%	65%13 of 2043–82%
Concedesconceded at least once	80%16 of 2058–92%	75%558 of 74871–78%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	30%6 of 2015–52%	30%225 of 74827–33%	35%7 of 2018–57%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 4 vs 5

Man United · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DLDDD

4pts

0-4-1W-D-L

5:6goals

Bournemouth · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DDLLW

5pts

1-2-2W-D-L

7:10goals

Man United · Last 5 at home n = 5

WWWLD

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

12:8goals

Bournemouth · Last 5 away n = 5

WDLDL

5pts

1-2-2W-D-L

6:10goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 10 → 4 vs 6 → 5

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Man United	Bournemouth
Points (of 15)	10 → 4 ▼	6 → 5 ▼
Goals scored per match	2.2 → 1.0 ▼	1.0 → 1.4 ▲
Goals conceded per match	1.2 → 1.2 =	1.0 → 2.0 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1490 (4 of 5) → 1533 tougher opponents	1580 → 1548 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−6 (1556)	−7 (1542)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 3 vs 7

	Man United	Bournemouth
days since last match	3	7
matches in last 7 days	1	0
matches in last 14 days	3	1
position today	15 (7 pts)	17 (6 pts)
points off 1st	14	15
points off top 4	6	7
points above bottom 3	1	0
matches left (incl. this one)	31	31
simulator impact	40 pp	40 pp
coach (league matches led before)	Michael Carrick since 13 Jan 2026 · 24 matches	Marco Rose since 3 Jun 2026 · 7 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 300 km
weather at kick-off	11 °C · 0.1 mm · 34 km/h	forecast from 25 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Man United 0-4-1 (n = 5)

	home		away
20 Mar 2026	Bournemouth	2–2	Man United
15 Dec 2025	Man United	4–4	Bournemouth
27 Apr 2025	Bournemouth	1–1	Man United
22 Dec 2024	Man United	0–3	Bournemouth
13 Apr 2024	Bournemouth	2–2	Man United

All 6 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Manchester United FC · unbeaten: 3

		now	longest in our database
Manchester United FC	unbeaten	3	11
Manchester United FC	winless	5	8
Manchester United FC	scoring	3	23
Manchester United FC	conceding	7	10
Manchester United FC	both teams score	3	6

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	7%	12%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	4%	5%	3%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	7%	12%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	4%	5%	3%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	7%	12%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	4%	5%	3%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%