Draw or 3+ goals

How to read it

What each number on the cards means, and why some matches are left out even with a high percentage.

• The number is how often the event happened in the teams' recent matches, played before kick-off. It does not say what will happen.
• “Solid” means the lower end of the 95% confidence interval is at least 50%. Over 10 matches, “7 of 10” happens by chance fairly often, and this filter removes it.
• “At most” looks the other way: matches where the event happened rarely. There, “solid” means the upper end of the interval is at most 50% (for example, “1 of 10” passes, “3 of 10” does not).
• “League” is how often the same thing happened across the whole league in the last 12 months: the teams' number only means something next to it.
• “Model” is our estimate for the match (calibrated), where it has already been calculated. The conditions are calibrated on past seasons (learned on 2024-25, tested on 2025-26), as in the Arena.
• “Leads at half-time” = the team had more goals at the break (1-0, 2-1); 1-1 at half-time does not count. The model has no calibrated estimate for this condition, so none is shown. Matches without a half-time score are not counted.