Rayo Vallecano de Madrid – RC Celta de Vigo

La Liga · Matchday 11 · 31 Oct 2026 15:15 UTC

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

36%1 · Rayo Vallecano≈ 1 in 2.77

30%X≈ 1 in 3.37

34%2 · Celta≈ 1 in 2.93

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

As of today, the away side are unbeaten in their last 6 matches. The away side travel roughly 470 km. The model estimates 36% for a home win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

Form, streaks, position and points are today's (25 Oct 2026), not the ones at kick-off: before this match the home side still have 1 league matches to play, the away side 1.

League position16 vs 10

Elo rating1493 vs 1518

Last 5LWDDL homeDDWDW away

Rest days7 vs 6

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 14% · 0–0: 11% · 1–0: 11%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	11%	14%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	8%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 40% vs 47%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Rayo Vallecano	Celta	League
League position	16th of 20 · 9 pts	10th of 20 · 11 pts	—
Elo rating	1493	1518	—
Last 5	LWDDL	DDWDW	—
Points rate (last 10)	40%	47%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.4	1.1	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	2.1	0.7	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	63%	40%	57% · 35%
Both teams score (10)	9 of 10	4 of 10	57%
3+ goals in the match (10)	7 of 10	3 of 10	52%
Days of rest	7	6	—

Home side at home · visitors away n = 4 · 4

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 1.50 vs 0.25

	Rayo Vallecano at home	Celta away
matches	4	4
scored / match	1.50league 1.69	0.25league 1.35
conceded / match	1.75league 1.35	0.25league 1.69
both scored	75%3 of 4 · league 60%	25%1 of 4 · league 60%
3+ goals	75%3 of 4 · league 56%	0%0 of 4 · league 56%
clean sheet	0%0 of 4 · league 30%	75%3 of 4 · league 19%
failed to score	25%1 of 4 · league 19%	75%3 of 4 · league 30%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 35% vs 30% · league 38%

Rayo VallecanoCeltaleague, year before the match · n = 374

	Rayo Vallecano	league	Celta
Winswon the match	35%7 of 2018–57%	38%282 of 74834–41%	30%6 of 2015–52%
Scoresscored at least once	85%17 of 2064–95%	76%568 of 74873–79%	70%14 of 2048–85%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	52%196 of 37447–57%	45%9 of 2026–66%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	65%13 of 2043–82%	57%214 of 37452–62%	55%11 of 2034–74%
Concedesconceded at least once	80%16 of 2058–92%	76%568 of 74873–79%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	25%5 of 2011–47%	28%209 of 74825–31%	35%7 of 2018–57%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 5 vs 9

Rayo Vallecano · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LWDDL

5pts

1-2-2W-D-L

5:10goals

Celta · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DDWDW

9pts

2-3-0W-D-L

9:3goals

Rayo Vallecano · Last 5 at home n = 5

WDWWL

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

8:7goals

Celta · Last 5 away n = 5

DDDDD

5pts

0-5-0W-D-L

2:2goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 7 → 5 vs 5 → 9

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Rayo Vallecano	Celta
Points (of 15)	7 → 5 ▼	5 → 9 ▲
Goals scored per match	1.8 → 1.0 ▼	0.4 → 1.8 ▲
Goals conceded per match	2.2 → 2.0 ▼	0.8 → 0.6 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1527 → 1524 easier opponents	1491 → 1483 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−9 (1493)	+12 (1518)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 7 vs 6

	Rayo Vallecano	Celta
days since last match	7	6
matches in last 7 days	0	1
matches in last 14 days	2	2
position today	16 (9 pts)	10 (11 pts)
points off 1st	18	16
points off top 4	10	8
points above bottom 3	1	3
matches left (incl. this one)	28	28
simulator impact	31 pp	31 pp
coach (league matches led before)	no data	Claudio Giráldez González since 12 Mar 2024 · 95 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 470 km

Weather: the forecast appears 3 days before kick-off.

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI, coach.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Rayo Vallecano 2-2-1 (n = 5)

	home		away
18 Jan 2026	Celta	3–0	Rayo Vallecano
21 Sep 2025	Rayo Vallecano	1–1	Celta
18 May 2025	Celta	1–2	Rayo Vallecano
10 Jan 2025	Rayo Vallecano	2–1	Celta
31 Mar 2024	Celta	0–0	Rayo Vallecano

All 6 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid · winless: 3

		now	longest in our database
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid	winless	3	9
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid	conceding	10	10
RC Celta de Vigo	unbeaten	6	8

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	11%	14%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	8%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	11%	14%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	8%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	11%	14%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	8%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%