Paris Saint-Germain FC – Olympique Lyonnais

Ligue 1 · Matchday 8 · 26 Oct 2026 19:30 UTC · Derby

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

59%1 · PSG≈ 1 in 1.71

23%X≈ 1 in 4.44

19%2 · Olympique Lyon≈ 1 in 5.29

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side have scored in each of their last 27 matches. The home side last played 6 days ago, the away side 8 days ago. The model estimates 59% for a home win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

League position2 vs 1

Elo rating1719 vs 1587

Last 5LWWWW homeWDWLW away

Rest days6 vs 8

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 11% · 1–0: 10% · 2–0: 10%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	11%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	10%	10%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 67% vs 57%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	PSG	Olympique Lyon	League
League position	2nd of 18 · 14 pts	1st of 18 · 14 pts	—
Elo rating	1719	1587	—
Last 5	LWWWW	WDWLW	—
Points rate (last 10)	67%	57%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.8	1.8	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.1	1.3	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	63%	40%	52% · 39%
Both teams score (10)	7 of 10	6 of 10	53%
3+ goals in the match (10)	7 of 10	7 of 10	55%
Days of rest	6	8	—

Goals and the first half

For each condition: the chance estimated by the model (calibrated on past seasons, the same as in the filters and the Arena), how often it happened in the teams' last 10 matches and how often across the whole league over the last 12 months. “Both teams score” = each team scores at least once (1–1 counts, 2–0 does not). “Draw or 3+ goals” = the match ends level OR has at least 3 goals (1–1 and 2–1 count, 1–0 does not); for “draw or 4+”, 2–2 and 3–1 count, 2–1 does not.

3+ goals: model 56%

Condition	Model	The teams' last 10	League, 12 months
Both teams score	56%≈ 1 in 1.79	65%13 of 20	53%
2+ goals	79%≈ 1 in 1.27	85%17 of 20	74%
3+ goals	56%≈ 1 in 1.79	70%14 of 20	55%
At most 2 goals	44%≈ 1 in 2.27	30%6 of 20	45%
Home team scores	87%≈ 1 in 1.15	100%10 of 10	76%
Away team scores	68%≈ 1 in 1.48	80%8 of 10	69%
1st half: 1+ goal	73%≈ 1 in 1.37	70%14 of 20	71%
1st half: 2+ goals	36%≈ 1 in 2.78	30%6 of 20	34%
Draw or 3+ goals	72%≈ 1 in 1.39	80%16 of 20	72%
Draw or 4+ goals	49%≈ 1 in 2.04	50%10 of 20	50%

“Last 10”: each team's league matches, home or away (for “home / away team scores”, only that team's). Tap a condition to see every upcoming match where it happened often.

Home side at home · visitors away n = 2 · 3

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 2.00 vs 1.00

	PSG at home	Olympique Lyon away
matches	2	3
scored / match	2.00league 1.63	1.00league 1.42
conceded / match	1.50league 1.42	0.67league 1.63
both scored	100%2 of 2 · league 65%	33%1 of 3 · league 65%
3+ goals	100%2 of 2 · league 65%	33%1 of 3 · league 65%
clean sheet	0%0 of 2 · league 23%	67%2 of 3 · league 18%
failed to score	0%0 of 2 · league 18%	33%1 of 3 · league 23%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 60% vs 45% · league 37%

PSGOlympique Lyonleague, year before the match · n = 291

	PSG	league	Olympique Lyon
Winswon the match	60%12 of 2039–78%	37%218 of 58234–41%	45%9 of 2026–66%
Scoresscored at least once	100%20 of 2084–100%	72%421 of 58269–76%	80%16 of 2058–92%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	80%16 of 2058–92%	55%159 of 29149–60%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	60%12 of 2039–78%	53%155 of 29148–59%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Concedesconceded at least once	60%12 of 2039–78%	72%421 of 58269–76%	65%13 of 2043–82%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	50%10 of 2030–70%	30%175 of 58027–34%	40%8 of 2022–61%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 12 vs 10

PSG · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LWWWW

12pts

4-0-1W-D-L

10:5goals

Olympique Lyon · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WDWLW

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

10:4goals

PSG · Last 5 at home n = 5

WDWLW

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

10:5goals

Olympique Lyon · Last 5 away n = 5

WLWDL

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

6:5goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 8 → 12 vs 7 → 10

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	PSG	Olympique Lyon
Points (of 15)	8 → 12 ▲	7 → 10 ▲
Goals scored per match	1.6 → 2.0 ▲	1.6 → 2.0 ▲
Goals conceded per match	1.2 → 1.0 ▼	1.8 → 0.8 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1547 → 1540 easier opponents	1514 → 1525 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+7 (1719)	+10 (1587)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 6 vs 8

	PSG	Olympique Lyon
days since last match	6	8
matches in last 7 days	1	0
matches in last 14 days	3	1
position today	2 (14 pts)	1 (14 pts)
points off 1st	0	0
points off top 4	in top 4	in top 4
points above bottom 3	8	8
matches left (incl. this one)	27	27
simulator impact	54 pp	54 pp
coach (league matches led before)	Luis Enrique since 5 Jul 2023 · 109 matches	Paulo Fonseca since 31 Jan 2025 · 56 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 400 km
weather at kick-off	13 °C · 0.0 mm · 12 km/h	forecast from 25 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

Derby: Lyon–Paris.

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

PSG 4-0-1 (n = 5)

	home		away
19 Apr 2026	PSG	1–2	Olympique Lyon
9 Nov 2025	Olympique Lyon	2–3	PSG
23 Feb 2025	Olympique Lyon	2–3	PSG
15 Dec 2024	PSG	3–1	Olympique Lyon
21 Apr 2024	PSG	4–1	Olympique Lyon

All 6 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Paris Saint-Germain FC · unbeaten: 4

		now	longest in our database
Paris Saint-Germain FC	unbeaten	4	32
Paris Saint-Germain FC	wins in a row	4	10
Paris Saint-Germain FC	scoring	27	27
Paris Saint-Germain FC	conceding	3	7
Paris Saint-Germain FC	both teams score	3	7
Paris Saint-Germain FC	3+ goals	3	7
Olympique Lyonnais	scoring	3	14
Olympique Lyonnais	3+ goals	3	7

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	11%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	10%	10%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	11%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	10%	10%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	11%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	10%	10%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%