RadarDraw or 4+ goals
The match ends level OR has at least 4 goals: 2–2 and 3–1 count, 2–1 does not.
Upcoming matches where it happened often (or rarely) in the teams' recent matches. It shows what happened, not what will happen. Combined filter → Active streaks →
Draw or 4+ goals · each team's last 10 matches, together · ≥ 70 %
- Bundesliga16 of 20 80%95% interval: 58%–92% · league: 60%
- Bundesliga15 of 19 79%95% interval: 57%–91% · league: 60%
- Bundesliga15 of 20 75%95% interval: 53%–89% · league: 60% · model: 59%
- La Liga15 of 20 75%95% interval: 53%–89% · league: 49% · model: 57%
- La Liga15 of 20 75%95% interval: 53%–89% · league: 49%
- Bundesliga14 of 19 74%95% interval: 51%–88% · league: 60%
How to read it
What each number on the cards means, and why some matches are left out even with a high percentage.
- The number is how often the event happened in the teams' recent matches, played before kick-off. It does not say what will happen.
- “Solid” means the lower end of the 95% confidence interval is at least 50%. Over 10 matches, “7 of 10” happens by chance fairly often, and this filter removes it.
- “At most” looks the other way: matches where the event happened rarely. There, “solid” means the upper end of the interval is at most 50% (for example, “1 of 10” passes, “3 of 10” does not).
- “League” is how often the same thing happened across the whole league in the last 12 months: the teams' number only means something next to it.
- “Model” is our estimate for the match (calibrated), where it has already been calculated. The conditions are calibrated on past seasons (learned on 2024-25, tested on 2025-26), as in the Arena.
- “Leads at half-time” = the team had more goals at the break (1-0, 2-1); 1-1 at half-time does not count. The model has no calibrated estimate for this condition, so none is shown. Matches without a half-time score are not counted.
Updated: 25 Oct, 08:20 UTC · 78 upcoming matches