Elche CF – Valencia CF

La Liga · Matchday 11 · 1 Nov 2026 17:30 UTC

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

52%1 · Elche≈ 1 in 1.92

26%X≈ 1 in 3.89

22%2 · Valencia≈ 1 in 4.51

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. The home side are 2 points above the bottom three with 28 matches left. The model estimates 52% for a home win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

League position14 vs 19

Elo rating1491 vs 1481

Last 5LWDDW homeWLDDL away

Rest days8 vs 8

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 12% · 1–0: 11% · 2–0: 10%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	6%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	11%	12%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	10%	10%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 33% vs 20%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Elche	Valencia	League
League position	14th of 20 · 10 pts	19th of 20 · 6 pts	—
Elo rating	1491	1481	—
Last 5	LWDDW	WLDDL	—
Points rate (last 10)	33%	20%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.4	0.7	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.7	1.7	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	50%	47%	57% · 35%
Both teams score (10)	6 of 10	4 of 10	57%
3+ goals in the match (10)	6 of 10	5 of 10	52%
Days of rest	8	8	—

Home side at home · visitors away n = 4 · 4

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 1.00 vs 1.00

	Elche at home	Valencia away
matches	4	4
scored / match	1.00league 1.69	1.00league 1.35
conceded / match	2.75league 1.35	1.50league 1.69
both scored	50%2 of 4 · league 60%	50%2 of 4 · league 60%
3+ goals	75%3 of 4 · league 56%	50%2 of 4 · league 56%
clean sheet	25%1 of 4 · league 30%	25%1 of 4 · league 19%
failed to score	50%2 of 4 · league 19%	25%1 of 4 · league 30%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 35% vs 30% · league 38%

ElcheValencialeague, year before the match · n = 371

	Elche	league	Valencia
Winswon the match	35%7 of 2018–57%	38%279 of 74234–41%	30%6 of 2015–52%
Scoresscored at least once	80%16 of 2058–92%	76%564 of 74273–79%	65%13 of 2043–82%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	55%11 of 2034–74%	52%193 of 37147–57%	45%9 of 2026–66%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	65%13 of 2043–82%	57%213 of 37152–62%	50%10 of 2030–70%
Concedesconceded at least once	75%15 of 2053–89%	76%564 of 74273–79%	75%15 of 2053–89%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	25%5 of 2011–47%	28%208 of 74225–31%	20%4 of 208–42%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 8 vs 5

Elche · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LWDDW

8pts

2-2-1W-D-L

8:4goals

Valencia · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WLDDL

5pts

1-2-2W-D-L

6:7goals

Elche · Last 5 at home n = 5

WLLLD

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

5:11goals

Valencia · Last 5 away n = 5

WLLWD

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

8:9goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 2 → 8 vs 1 → 5

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Elche	Valencia
Points (of 15)	2 → 8 ▲	1 → 5 ▲
Goals scored per match	1.2 → 1.6 ▲	0.2 → 1.2 ▲
Goals conceded per match	2.6 → 0.8 ▼	2.0 → 1.4 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1566 (4 of 5) → 1561 easier opponents	1559 → 1517 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+19 (1491)	−4 (1481)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 8 vs 8

	Elche	Valencia
days since last match	8	8
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	1	1
position today	14 (10 pts)	19 (6 pts)
points off 1st	17	21
points off top 4	9	13
points above bottom 3	2	bottom 3 · 3 off 17th
matches left (incl. this one)	28	28
simulator impact	31 pp	31 pp
coach (league matches led before)	Martín Anselmi since 13 Jun 2026 · 10 matches	unconfirmed
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 140 km

Weather: the forecast appears 3 days before kick-off.

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI, coach.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Elche 1-1-0 (n = 2)

	home		away
11 Apr 2026	Elche	1–0	Valencia
10 Jan 2026	Valencia	1–1	Elche

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Elche CF · unbeaten: 4

		now	longest in our database
Elche CF	unbeaten	4	7
Elche CF	clean sheets	3	3
Valencia CF	winless	4	12

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	6%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	11%	12%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	10%	10%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	6%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	11%	12%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	10%	10%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	6%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	11%	12%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	10%	10%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%