SV Werder Bremen – TSG 1899 Hoffenheim

Bundesliga · Matchday 8 · 31 Oct 2026 14:30 UTC

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

40%1 · Bremen≈ 1 in 2.49

24%X≈ 1 in 4.24

36%2 · Hoffenheim≈ 1 in 2.76

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

As of today, the home side have scored in each of their last 7 matches. The away side travel roughly 430 km. The model estimates 40% for a home win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

Form, streaks, position and points are today's (25 Oct 2026), not the ones at kick-off: before this match the home side still have 0 league matches to play, the away side 1.

League position6 vs 14

Elo rating1473 vs 1513

Last 5DWDDW homeLWLLW away

Rest days7 vs 6

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 10% · 1–2: 8% · 2–1: 8%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	5%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	5%	10%	8%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
2	5%	8%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
3	3%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 40% vs 43%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Bremen	Hoffenheim	League
League position	6th of 18 · 12 pts	14th of 18 · 6 pts	—
Elo rating	1473	1513	—
Last 5	DWDDW	LWLLW	—
Points rate (last 10)	40%	43%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.6	1.7	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	2.0	2.2	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	43%	37%	54% · 38%
Both teams score (10)	8 of 10	8 of 10	63%
3+ goals in the match (10)	7 of 10	9 of 10	65%
Days of rest	7	6	—

Home side at home · visitors away n = 3 · 3

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 2.67 vs 1.67

	Bremen at home	Hoffenheim away
matches	3	3
scored / match	2.67league 2.20	1.67league 1.36
conceded / match	1.67league 1.36	2.33league 2.20
both scored	100%3 of 3 · league 57%	100%3 of 3 · league 57%
3+ goals	100%3 of 3 · league 70%	100%3 of 3 · league 70%
clean sheet	0%0 of 3 · league 34%	0%0 of 3 · league 16%
failed to score	0%0 of 3 · league 16%	0%0 of 3 · league 34%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 35% vs 35% · league 37%

BremenHoffenheimleague, year before the match · n = 295

	Bremen	league	Hoffenheim
Winswon the match	35%7 of 2018–57%	37%220 of 59033–41%	35%7 of 2018–57%
Scoresscored at least once	80%16 of 2058–92%	79%467 of 59076–82%	85%17 of 2064–95%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	65%13 of 2043–82%	65%193 of 29560–71%	85%17 of 2064–95%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	70%14 of 2048–85%	63%186 of 29557–68%	75%15 of 2053–89%
Concedesconceded at least once	90%18 of 2070–97%	79%467 of 59076–82%	90%18 of 2070–97%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	20%4 of 208–42%	32%187 of 59028–36%	45%9 of 2026–66%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 9 vs 6

Bremen · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DWDDW

9pts

2-3-0W-D-L

11:9goals

Hoffenheim · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LWLLW

6pts

2-0-3W-D-L

9:11goals

Bremen · Last 5 at home n = 5

LLWWD

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

9:10goals

Hoffenheim · Last 5 away n = 5

WLLLW

6pts

2-0-3W-D-L

7:12goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 3 → 9 vs 7 → 6

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Bremen	Hoffenheim
Points (of 15)	3 → 9 ▲	7 → 6 ▼
Goals scored per match	1.0 → 2.2 ▲	1.6 → 1.8 ▲
Goals conceded per match	2.2 → 1.8 ▼	2.2 → 2.2 =
Average Elo of the opponents	1547 → 1516 easier opponents	1482 → 1529 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+14 (1473)	−7 (1513)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 7 vs 6

	Bremen	Hoffenheim
days since last match	7	6
matches in last 7 days	0	1
matches in last 14 days	1	2
position today	6 (12 pts)	14 (6 pts)
points off 1st	5	11
points off top 4	1	7
points above bottom 3	6	0
matches left (incl. this one)	27	27
simulator impact	42 pp	42 pp
coach (league matches led before)	Daniel Thioune since 4 Feb 2026 · 21 matches	Christian Ilzer since 15 Nov 2024 · 64 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 430 km

Weather: the forecast appears 3 days before kick-off.

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Bremen 1-0-4 (n = 5)

	home		away
9 May 2026	Hoffenheim	1–0	Bremen
27 Jan 2026	Bremen	0–2	Hoffenheim
16 Feb 2025	Bremen	1–3	Hoffenheim
29 Sep 2024	Hoffenheim	3–4	Bremen
3 Mar 2024	Hoffenheim	2–1	Bremen

All 6 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

SV Werder Bremen · unbeaten: 6

		now	longest in our database
SV Werder Bremen	unbeaten	6	8
SV Werder Bremen	scoring	7	13
SV Werder Bremen	conceding	14	14
SV Werder Bremen	both teams score	7	7
SV Werder Bremen	3+ goals	4	6
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	scoring	6	16
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	conceding	7	27
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	both teams score	6	11
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	3+ goals	7	9

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	5%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	5%	10%	8%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
2	5%	8%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
3	3%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	5%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	5%	10%	8%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
2	5%	8%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
3	3%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	5%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	5%	10%	8%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
2	5%	8%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
3	3%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%