1. FC Union Berlin – 1. FC Köln

Bundesliga · Matchday 8 · 1 Nov 2026 14:30 UTC

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

40%1 · Union Berlin≈ 1 in 2.50

27%X≈ 1 in 3.72

33%2 · 1. FC Köln≈ 1 in 3.02

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. The away side travel roughly 490 km. The model estimates 40% for a home win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

League position17 vs 11

Elo rating1438 vs 1421

Last 5LLWDD homeDLWLD away

Rest days8 vs 8

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 13% · 1–0: 9% · 2–1: 9%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	13%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	9%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 43% vs 30%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Union Berlin	1. FC Köln	League
League position	17th of 18 · 6 pts	11th of 18 · 8 pts	—
Elo rating	1438	1421	—
Last 5	LLWDD	DLWLD	—
Points rate (last 10)	43%	30%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.5	1.2	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	2.1	2.1	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	43%	13%	54% · 37%
Both teams score (10)	5 of 10	8 of 10	63%
3+ goals in the match (10)	7 of 10	7 of 10	66%
Days of rest	8	8	—

Home side at home · visitors away n = 4 · 3

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 1.25 vs 0.67

	Union Berlin at home	1. FC Köln away
matches	4	3
scored / match	1.25league 2.20	0.67league 1.36
conceded / match	1.50league 1.36	2.33league 2.20
both scored	50%2 of 4 · league 57%	67%2 of 3 · league 57%
3+ goals	50%2 of 4 · league 70%	67%2 of 3 · league 70%
clean sheet	50%2 of 4 · league 34%	0%0 of 3 · league 16%
failed to score	25%1 of 4 · league 16%	33%1 of 3 · league 34%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 25% vs 15% · league 37%

Union Berlin1. FC Kölnleague, year before the match · n = 294

	Union Berlin	league	1. FC Köln
Winswon the match	25%5 of 2011–47%	37%219 of 58833–41%	15%3 of 205–36%
Scoresscored at least once	75%15 of 2053–89%	79%466 of 58876–82%	85%17 of 2064–95%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	65%13 of 2043–82%	66%193 of 29460–71%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	55%11 of 2034–74%	63%186 of 29458–69%	85%17 of 2064–95%
Concedesconceded at least once	75%15 of 2053–89%	79%466 of 58876–82%	95%19 of 2076–99%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	15%3 of 205–36%	32%186 of 58828–36%	15%3 of 205–36%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 5 vs 5

Union Berlin · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LLWDD

5pts

1-2-2W-D-L

3:11goals

1. FC Köln · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DLWLD

5pts

1-2-2W-D-L

4:5goals

Union Berlin · Last 5 at home n = 5

WDLWD

8pts

2-2-1W-D-L

9:6goals

1. FC Köln · Last 5 away n = 5

DLLLL

1pts

0-1-4W-D-L

5:14goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 8 → 5 vs 4 → 5

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Union Berlin	1. FC Köln
Points (of 15)	8 → 5 ▼	4 → 5 ▲
Goals scored per match	2.4 → 0.6 ▼	1.6 → 0.8 ▼
Goals conceded per match	2.0 → 2.2 ▲	3.2 → 1.0 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1518 → 1582 tougher opponents	1540 → 1475 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	±0 (1438)	−2 (1421)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 8 vs 8

	Union Berlin	1. FC Köln
days since last match	8	8
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	1	1
position today	17 (6 pts)	11 (8 pts)
points off 1st	11	9
points off top 4	7	5
points above bottom 3	bottom 3 · 0 off 15th	2
matches left (incl. this one)	27	27
simulator impact	43 pp	43 pp
coach (league matches led before)	Mauro Lustrinelli since 1 Jul 2026 · 7 matches	René Wagner since 23 Mar 2026 · 14 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 490 km

Weather: the forecast appears 3 days before kick-off.

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Union Berlin 2-1-1 (n = 4)

	home		away
2 May 2026	Union Berlin	2–2	1. FC Köln
20 Dec 2025	1. FC Köln	0–1	Union Berlin
11 May 2024	1. FC Köln	3–2	Union Berlin
20 Dec 2023	Union Berlin	2–0	1. FC Köln

All 4 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

1. FC Union Berlin · unbeaten: 3

		now	longest in our database
1. FC Union Berlin	unbeaten	3	8

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	13%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	9%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	13%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	9%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	13%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	9%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%