Real Sociedad de Fútbol – Levante UD

La Liga · Matchday 10 · 25 Oct 2026 17:30 UTC

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

54%1 · Real Sociedad≈ 1 in 1.85

21%X≈ 1 in 4.72

25%2 · Levante≈ 1 in 4.05

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side have scored in each of their last 5 matches. The home side last played 7 days ago, the away side 3 days ago. The model estimates 54% for a home win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

League position5 vs 13

Elo rating1513 vs 1489

Last 5WLWWW homeLLDDW away

Rest days7 vs 3

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 9% · 2–1: 9% · 2–2: 7%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	3%	3%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	5%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	9%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	4%	3%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): 1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 57% vs 33%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Real Sociedad	Levante	League
League position	5th of 20 · 16 pts	13th of 20 · 10 pts	—
Elo rating	1513	1489	—
Last 5	WLWWW	LLDDW	—
Points rate (last 10)	57%	33%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.8	1.6	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.8	1.9	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	50%	23%	57% · 35%
Both teams score (10)	7 of 10	7 of 10	57%
3+ goals in the match (10)	7 of 10	7 of 10	52%
Days of rest	7	3	—

Goals and the first half

For each condition: the chance estimated by the model (calibrated on past seasons, the same as in the filters and the Arena), how often it happened in the teams' last 10 matches and how often across the whole league over the last 12 months. “Both teams score” = each team scores at least once (1–1 counts, 2–0 does not). “Draw or 3+ goals” = the match ends level OR has at least 3 goals (1–1 and 2–1 count, 1–0 does not); for “draw or 4+”, 2–2 and 3–1 count, 2–1 does not.

3+ goals: model 64%

Condition	Model	The teams' last 10	League, 12 months
Both teams score	62%≈ 1 in 1.61	70%14 of 20	57%
2+ goals	84%≈ 1 in 1.18	80%16 of 20	77%
3+ goals	64%≈ 1 in 1.55	70%14 of 20	52%
At most 2 goals	36%≈ 1 in 2.80	30%6 of 20	48%
Home team scores	90%≈ 1 in 1.11	70%7 of 10	81%
Away team scores	77%≈ 1 in 1.29	70%7 of 10	70%
1st half: 1+ goal	78%≈ 1 in 1.28	70%14 of 20	68%
1st half: 2+ goals	44%≈ 1 in 2.30	55%11 of 20	34%
Draw or 3+ goals	78%≈ 1 in 1.29	95%19 of 20	72%
Draw or 4+ goals	57%≈ 1 in 1.76	75%15 of 20	49%

“Last 10”: each team's league matches, home or away (for “home / away team scores”, only that team's). Tap a condition to see every upcoming match where it happened often.

Home side at home · visitors away n = 4 · 5

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 1.25 vs 0.40

	Real Sociedad at home	Levante away
matches	4	5
scored / match	1.25league 1.69	0.40league 1.35
conceded / match	1.50league 1.35	1.40league 1.69
both scored	50%2 of 4 · league 60%	40%2 of 5 · league 60%
3+ goals	75%3 of 4 · league 56%	40%2 of 5 · league 56%
clean sheet	25%1 of 4 · league 30%	40%2 of 5 · league 19%
failed to score	50%2 of 4 · league 19%	60%3 of 5 · league 30%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 35% vs 40% · league 38%

Real SociedadLevanteleague, year before the match · n = 380

	Real Sociedad	league	Levante
Winswon the match	35%7 of 2018–57%	38%287 of 76034–41%	40%8 of 2022–61%
Scoresscored at least once	75%15 of 2053–89%	76%577 of 76073–79%	75%15 of 2053–89%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	65%13 of 2043–82%	52%198 of 38047–57%	55%11 of 2034–74%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	70%14 of 2048–85%	57%217 of 38052–62%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Concedesconceded at least once	90%18 of 2070–97%	76%577 of 76073–79%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	40%8 of 2022–61%	28%214 of 76025–31%	20%4 of 208–42%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 12 vs 5

Real Sociedad · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WLWWW

12pts

4-0-1W-D-L

14:11goals

Levante · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LLDDW

5pts

1-2-2W-D-L

10:12goals

Real Sociedad · Last 5 at home n = 5

LWDLW

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

8:10goals

Levante · Last 5 away n = 5

LDDLD

3pts

0-3-2W-D-L

2:7goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 5 → 12 vs 5 → 5

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Real Sociedad	Levante
Points (of 15)	5 → 12 ▲	5 → 5 =
Goals scored per match	0.8 → 2.8 ▲	1.2 → 2.0 ▲
Goals conceded per match	1.4 → 2.2 ▲	1.4 → 2.4 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1547 → 1514 easier opponents	1516 → 1570 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+18 (1513)	±0 (1489)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 7 vs 3

	Real Sociedad	Levante
days since last match	7	3
matches in last 7 days	0	1
matches in last 14 days	1	3
position today	5 (16 pts)	13 (10 pts)
points off 1st	11	17
points off top 4	3	9
points above bottom 3	8	2
matches left (incl. this one)	29	29
simulator impact	37 pp	37 pp
coach (league matches led before)	Pellegrino Matarazzo since 20 Dec 2025 · 31 matches	Luís Manuel Ferreira de Castro since 20 Dec 2025 · 32 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 440 km
weather at kick-off	17 °C · 1.2 mm · 12 km/h	forecast from 25 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Real Sociedad 1-1-0 (n = 2)

	home		away
4 Apr 2026	Real Sociedad	2–0	Levante
20 Dec 2025	Levante	1–1	Real Sociedad

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Real Sociedad de Fútbol · unbeaten: 3

		now	longest in our database
Real Sociedad de Fútbol	unbeaten	3	7
Real Sociedad de Fútbol	wins in a row	3	3
Real Sociedad de Fútbol	scoring	3	16
Real Sociedad de Fútbol	conceding	5	19
Real Sociedad de Fútbol	both teams score	3	10
Real Sociedad de Fútbol	3+ goals	5	6
Levante UD	unbeaten	3	4
Levante UD	scoring	5	5
Levante UD	conceding	5	8
Levante UD	both teams score	5	5

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	3%	3%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	5%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	9%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	4%	3%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	3%	3%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	5%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	9%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	4%	3%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	3%	3%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	5%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	9%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	4%	3%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%