Udinese Calcio – AC Milan

Serie A · Matchday 8 · 25 Oct 2026 19:45 UTC

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

22%1 · Udinese≈ 1 in 4.50

25%X≈ 1 in 4.00

53%2 · Milan≈ 1 in 1.89

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side have scored in each of their last 10 matches. The away side travel roughly 320 km. The model estimates 53% for an away win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

League position18 vs 5

Elo rating1457 vs 1614

Last 5LLLLL homeDDWDW away

Rest days7 vs 7

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

0–1: 12% · 1–1: 12% · 0–2: 10%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	12%	10%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
1	7%	12%	10%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	3%	6%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 23% vs 60%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Udinese	Milan	League
League position	18th of 20 · 4 pts	5th of 20 · 15 pts	—
Elo rating	1457	1614	—
Last 5	LLLLL	DDWDW	—
Points rate (last 10)	23%	60%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.1	1.9	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.8	1.3	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	27%	50%	49% · 44%
Both teams score (10)	5 of 10	8 of 10	47%
3+ goals in the match (10)	5 of 10	7 of 10	50%
Days of rest	7	7	—

Goals and the first half

For each condition: the chance estimated by the model (calibrated on past seasons, the same as in the filters and the Arena), how often it happened in the teams' last 10 matches and how often across the whole league over the last 12 months. “Both teams score” = each team scores at least once (1–1 counts, 2–0 does not). “Draw or 3+ goals” = the match ends level OR has at least 3 goals (1–1 and 2–1 count, 1–0 does not); for “draw or 4+”, 2–2 and 3–1 count, 2–1 does not.

3+ goals: model 51%

Condition	Model	The teams' last 10	League, 12 months
Both teams score	54%≈ 1 in 1.85	65%13 of 20	48%
2+ goals	76%≈ 1 in 1.32	85%17 of 20	74%
3+ goals	51%≈ 1 in 1.94	60%12 of 20	50%
At most 2 goals	49%≈ 1 in 2.06	40%8 of 20	50%
Home team scores	65%≈ 1 in 1.53	60%6 of 10	71%
Away team scores	80%≈ 1 in 1.25	100%10 of 10	69%
1st half: 1+ goal	70%≈ 1 in 1.43	60%12 of 20	66%
1st half: 2+ goals	32%≈ 1 in 3.14	40%8 of 20	30%
Draw or 3+ goals	69%≈ 1 in 1.44	75%15 of 20	66%
Draw or 4+ goals	46%≈ 1 in 2.18	40%8 of 20	40%

“Last 10”: each team's league matches, home or away (for “home / away team scores”, only that team's). Tap a condition to see every upcoming match where it happened often.

Home side at home · visitors away n = 4 · 4

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 0.50 vs 1.50

	Udinese at home	Milan away
matches	4	4
scored / match	0.50league 1.59	1.50league 1.41
conceded / match	1.75league 1.41	1.25league 1.59
both scored	50%2 of 4 · league 57%	100%4 of 4 · league 57%
3+ goals	50%2 of 4 · league 60%	50%2 of 4 · league 60%
clean sheet	0%0 of 4 · league 23%	0%0 of 4 · league 21%
failed to score	50%2 of 4 · league 21%	0%0 of 4 · league 23%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 30% vs 45% · league 39%

UdineseMilanleague, year before the match · n = 380

	Udinese	league	Milan
Winswon the match	30%6 of 2015–52%	39%294 of 76035–42%	45%9 of 2026–66%
Scoresscored at least once	60%12 of 2039–78%	70%534 of 76067–73%	70%14 of 2048–85%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	50%190 of 38045–55%	45%9 of 2026–66%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	35%7 of 2018–57%	47%180 of 38042–52%	45%9 of 2026–66%
Concedesconceded at least once	70%14 of 2048–85%	70%534 of 76067–73%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	35%7 of 2018–57%	28%216 of 76025–32%	20%4 of 208–42%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 0 vs 9

Udinese · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LLLLL

0pts

0-0-5W-D-L

5:13goals

Milan · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DDWDW

9pts

2-3-0W-D-L

10:6goals

Udinese · Last 5 at home n = 5

LDLLL

1pts

0-1-4W-D-L

2:8goals

Milan · Last 5 away n = 5

WWDDD

9pts

2-3-0W-D-L

8:6goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 7 → 0 vs 9 → 9

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Udinese	Milan
Points (of 15)	7 → 0 ▼	9 → 9 =
Goals scored per match	1.2 → 1.0 ▼	1.8 → 2.0 ▲
Goals conceded per match	1.0 → 2.6 ▲	1.4 → 1.2 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1495 → 1525 tougher opponents	1485 → 1535 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−29 (1457)	+7 (1614)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 7 vs 7

	Udinese	Milan
days since last match	7	7
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	2	1
position today	18 (4 pts)	5 (15 pts)
points off 1st	18	7
points off top 4	13	2
points above bottom 3	bottom 3 · 0 off 17th	11
matches left (incl. this one)	31	31
simulator impact	45 pp	45 pp
coach (league matches led before)	Kosta Runjaić since 1 Jul 2024 · 83 matches	Ruben Amorim since 16 Jun 2026 · 7 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 320 km
weather at kick-off	9 °C · 0.0 mm · 4 km/h	forecast from 25 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Udinese 1-0-4 (n = 5)

	home		away
11 Apr 2026	Milan	0–3	Udinese
20 Sep 2025	Udinese	0–3	Milan
11 Apr 2025	Udinese	0–4	Milan
19 Oct 2024	Milan	1–0	Udinese
20 Jan 2024	Udinese	2–3	Milan

All 6 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Udinese Calcio · winless: 5

		now	longest in our database
Udinese Calcio	winless	5	10
Udinese Calcio	conceding	9	11
AC Milan	unbeaten	7	24
AC Milan	scoring	10	22

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	12%	10%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
1	7%	12%	10%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	3%	6%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	12%	10%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
1	7%	12%	10%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	3%	6%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	12%	10%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
1	7%	12%	10%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	3%	6%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%