FC Internazionale Milano – ACF Fiorentina

Serie A · Matchday 8 · 25 Oct 2026 11:30 UTC

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

72%1 · Inter≈ 1 in 1.40

16%X≈ 1 in 6.07

12%2 · Fiorentina≈ 1 in 8.37

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side are unbeaten in their last 17 matches. The home side last played 3 days ago, the away side 6 days ago. The model estimates 72% for a home win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

League position2 vs 19

Elo rating1742 vs 1501

Last 5WWDWW homeLWDLL away

Rest days3 vs 6

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

2–0: 10% · 2–1: 9% · 3–0: 8%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	3%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	7%	7%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	10%	9%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	8%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	5%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	3%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): 2%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 80% vs 30%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Inter	Fiorentina	League
League position	2nd of 20 · 19 pts	19th of 20 · 4 pts	—
Elo rating	1742	1501	—
Last 5	WWDWW	LWDLL	—
Points rate (last 10)	80%	30%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	2.8	1.1	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.3	1.8	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	87%	53%	49% · 44%
Both teams score (10)	7 of 10	6 of 10	48%
3+ goals in the match (10)	8 of 10	6 of 10	50%
Days of rest	3	6	—

Goals and the first half

For each condition: the chance estimated by the model (calibrated on past seasons, the same as in the filters and the Arena), how often it happened in the teams' last 10 matches and how often across the whole league over the last 12 months. “Both teams score” = each team scores at least once (1–1 counts, 2–0 does not). “Draw or 3+ goals” = the match ends level OR has at least 3 goals (1–1 and 2–1 count, 1–0 does not); for “draw or 4+”, 2–2 and 3–1 count, 2–1 does not.

3+ goals: model 62%

Condition	Model	The teams' last 10	League, 12 months
Both teams score	57%≈ 1 in 1.76	65%13 of 20	48%
2+ goals	83%≈ 1 in 1.20	90%18 of 20	74%
3+ goals	62%≈ 1 in 1.60	70%14 of 20	50%
At most 2 goals	38%≈ 1 in 2.66	30%6 of 20	50%
Home team scores	93%≈ 1 in 1.08	100%10 of 10	71%
Away team scores	66%≈ 1 in 1.51	70%7 of 10	69%
1st half: 1+ goal	77%≈ 1 in 1.30	80%16 of 20	66%
1st half: 2+ goals	41%≈ 1 in 2.42	55%11 of 20	30%
Draw or 3+ goals	75%≈ 1 in 1.33	90%18 of 20	66%
Draw or 4+ goals	53%≈ 1 in 1.87	65%13 of 20	40%

“Last 10”: each team's league matches, home or away (for “home / away team scores”, only that team's). Tap a condition to see every upcoming match where it happened often.

Home side at home · visitors away n = 4 · 3

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 3.75 vs 1.67

	Inter at home	Fiorentina away
matches	4	3
scored / match	3.75league 1.59	1.67league 1.41
conceded / match	1.50league 1.41	2.67league 1.59
both scored	75%3 of 4 · league 57%	67%2 of 3 · league 57%
3+ goals	100%4 of 4 · league 60%	100%3 of 3 · league 60%
clean sheet	25%1 of 4 · league 23%	0%0 of 3 · league 21%
failed to score	0%0 of 4 · league 21%	33%1 of 3 · league 23%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 65% vs 30% · league 39%

InterFiorentinaleague, year before the match · n = 384

	Inter	league	Fiorentina
Winswon the match	65%13 of 2043–82%	39%296 of 76835–42%	30%6 of 2015–52%
Scoresscored at least once	95%19 of 2076–99%	70%540 of 76867–73%	65%13 of 2043–82%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	60%12 of 2039–78%	50%192 of 38445–55%	45%9 of 2026–66%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	60%12 of 2039–78%	48%183 of 38443–53%	45%9 of 2026–66%
Concedesconceded at least once	65%13 of 2043–82%	70%540 of 76867–73%	65%13 of 2043–82%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	28%218 of 76825–32%	35%7 of 2018–57%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 13 vs 4

Inter · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WWDWW

13pts

4-1-0W-D-L

16:8goals

Fiorentina · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LWDLL

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

8:10goals

Inter · Last 5 at home n = 5

DWWWW

13pts

4-1-0W-D-L

16:7goals

Fiorentina · Last 5 away n = 5

LWLWL

6pts

2-0-3W-D-L

7:12goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 11 → 13 vs 5 → 4

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Inter	Fiorentina
Points (of 15)	11 → 13 ▲	5 → 4 ▼
Goals scored per match	2.4 → 3.2 ▲	0.6 → 1.6 ▲
Goals conceded per match	1.0 → 1.6 ▲	1.6 → 2.0 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1458 → 1549 tougher opponents	1558 → 1514 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+11 (1742)	−10 (1501)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 3 vs 6

	Inter	Fiorentina
days since last match	3	6
matches in last 7 days	1	1
matches in last 14 days	3	1
position today	2 (19 pts)	19 (4 pts)
points off 1st	3	18
points off top 4	in top 4	13
points above bottom 3	15	bottom 3 · 0 off 17th
matches left (incl. this one)	31	31
simulator impact	23 pp	23 pp
coach (league matches led before)	Cristian Chivu since 9 Jun 2025 · 45 matches	unconfirmed
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 250 km
weather at kick-off	12 °C · 0.0 mm · 6 km/h	forecast from 25 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI, coach.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Inter 3-1-1 (n = 5)

	home		away
22 Mar 2026	Fiorentina	1–1	Inter
29 Oct 2025	Inter	3–0	Fiorentina
10 Feb 2025	Inter	2–1	Fiorentina
6 Feb 2025	Fiorentina	3–0	Inter
28 Jan 2024	Fiorentina	0–1	Inter

All 6 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

FC Internazionale Milano · unbeaten: 17

		now	longest in our database
FC Internazionale Milano	unbeaten	17	28
FC Internazionale Milano	scoring	17	34
FC Internazionale Milano	3+ goals	5	5
ACF Fiorentina	winless	3	15
ACF Fiorentina	scoring	5	9
ACF Fiorentina	conceding	8	12
ACF Fiorentina	both teams score	5	7

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	3%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	7%	7%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	10%	9%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	8%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	5%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	3%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	3%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	7%	7%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	10%	9%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	8%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	5%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	3%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	3%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	7%	7%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	10%	9%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	8%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	5%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	3%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%