FC Barcelona – Real Madrid CF

La Liga · Matchday 10 · 25 Oct 2026 20:00 UTC · Derby

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

60%1 · Barça≈ 1 in 1.65

20%X≈ 1 in 5.03

20%2 · Real Madrid≈ 1 in 5.08

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side have scored in each of their last 11 matches. The away side travel roughly 500 km. The model estimates 60% for a home win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

League position1 vs 3

Elo rating1770 vs 1720

Last 5WWWWW homeWWLWW away

Rest days5 vs 4

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

2–1: 9% · 1–1: 8% · 2–0: 7%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	5%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	2%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): 1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 90% vs 80%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Barça	Real Madrid	League
League position	1st of 20 · 27 pts	3rd of 20 · 21 pts	—
Elo rating	1770	1720	—
Last 5	WWWWW	WWLWW	—
Points rate (last 10)	90%	80%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	4.0	2.7	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.2	1.1	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	100%	53%	57% · 35%
Both teams score (10)	6 of 10	7 of 10	57%
3+ goals in the match (10)	9 of 10	8 of 10	52%
Days of rest	5	4	—

Goals and the first half

For each condition: the chance estimated by the model (calibrated on past seasons, the same as in the filters and the Arena), how often it happened in the teams' last 10 matches and how often across the whole league over the last 12 months. “Both teams score” = each team scores at least once (1–1 counts, 2–0 does not). “Draw or 3+ goals” = the match ends level OR has at least 3 goals (1–1 and 2–1 count, 1–0 does not); for “draw or 4+”, 2–2 and 3–1 count, 2–1 does not.

3+ goals: model 64%

Condition	Model	The teams' last 10	League, 12 months
Both teams score	61%≈ 1 in 1.64	65%13 of 20	57%
2+ goals	84%≈ 1 in 1.19	90%18 of 20	77%
3+ goals	64%≈ 1 in 1.56	85%17 of 20	52%
At most 2 goals	36%≈ 1 in 2.80	15%3 of 20	48%
Home team scores	91%≈ 1 in 1.10	100%10 of 10	81%
Away team scores	75%≈ 1 in 1.34	90%9 of 10	70%
1st half: 1+ goal	78%≈ 1 in 1.28	80%16 of 20	68%
1st half: 2+ goals	44%≈ 1 in 2.30	75%15 of 20	34%
Draw or 3+ goals	77%≈ 1 in 1.29	85%17 of 20	72%
Draw or 4+ goals	56%≈ 1 in 1.77	70%14 of 20	49%

“Last 10”: each team's league matches, home or away (for “home / away team scores”, only that team's). Tap a condition to see every upcoming match where it happened often.

Home side at home · visitors away n = 4 · 4

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 4.25 vs 1.50

	Barça at home	Real Madrid away
matches	4	4
scored / match	4.25league 1.69	1.50league 1.35
conceded / match	1.00league 1.35	1.50league 1.69
both scored	50%2 of 4 · league 60%	75%3 of 4 · league 60%
3+ goals	75%3 of 4 · league 56%	75%3 of 4 · league 56%
clean sheet	50%2 of 4 · league 30%	0%0 of 4 · league 19%
failed to score	0%0 of 4 · league 19%	25%1 of 4 · league 30%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 90% vs 70% · league 38%

BarçaReal Madridleague, year before the match · n = 379

	Barça	league	Real Madrid
Winswon the match	90%18 of 2070–97%	38%286 of 75834–41%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Scoresscored at least once	95%19 of 2076–99%	76%576 of 75873–79%	90%18 of 2070–97%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	70%14 of 2048–85%	52%198 of 37947–57%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	55%11 of 2034–74%	57%217 of 37952–62%	65%13 of 2043–82%
Concedesconceded at least once	60%12 of 2039–78%	76%576 of 75873–79%	75%15 of 2053–89%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	75%15 of 2053–89%	28%213 of 75825–31%	50%10 of 2030–70%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 15 vs 12

Barça · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WWWWW

15pts

5-0-0W-D-L

22:7goals

Real Madrid · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WWLWW

12pts

4-0-1W-D-L

13:6goals

Barça · Last 5 at home n = 5

WWWWW

15pts

5-0-0W-D-L

20:5goals

Real Madrid · Last 5 away n = 5

WWLWL

9pts

3-0-2W-D-L

7:6goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 12 → 15 vs 12 → 12

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Barça	Real Madrid
Points (of 15)	12 → 15 ▲	12 → 12 =
Goals scored per match	3.6 → 4.4 ▲	2.8 → 2.6 ▼
Goals conceded per match	1.0 → 1.4 ▲	1.0 → 1.2 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1499 → 1504 tougher opponents	1513 → 1534 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+17 (1770)	+6 (1720)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 5 vs 4

	Barça	Real Madrid
days since last match	5	4
matches in last 7 days	1	1
matches in last 14 days	3	3
position today	1 (27 pts)	3 (21 pts)
points off 1st	0	6
points off top 4	in top 4	in top 4
points above bottom 3	19	13
matches left (incl. this one)	29	29
simulator impact	14 pp	14 pp
coach (league matches led before)	Hansi Flick since 1 Jul 2024 · 85 matches	Álvaro Arbeloa since 13 Jan 2026 · 28 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 500 km
weather at kick-off	16 °C · 0.0 mm · 5 km/h	forecast from 25 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

Derby: El Clásico.

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Barça 3-0-2 (n = 5)

	home		away
10 May 2026	Barça	2–0	Real Madrid
26 Oct 2025	Real Madrid	2–1	Barça
11 May 2025	Barça	4–3	Real Madrid
26 Oct 2024	Real Madrid	0–4	Barça
21 Apr 2024	Real Madrid	3–2	Barça

All 6 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

FC Barcelona · unbeaten: 9

		now	longest in our database
FC Barcelona	unbeaten	9	17
FC Barcelona	wins in a row	9	11
FC Barcelona	scoring	11	55
FC Barcelona	3+ goals	7	13
Real Madrid CF	scoring	5	27

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	5%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	2%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	5%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	2%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	5%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	2%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%