TSG 1899 Hoffenheim – Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Bundesliga · Matchday 7 · 25 Oct 2026 14:30 UTC

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

29%1 · Hoffenheim≈ 1 in 3.48

22%X≈ 1 in 4.60

50%2 · Leverkusen≈ 1 in 2.02

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side have scored in each of their last 18 matches. The away side are 4 points off 1st place with 28 matches left. The model estimates 50% for an away win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

League position14 vs 4

Elo rating1513 vs 1652

Last 5LWLLW homeWDWWW away

Rest days6 vs 7

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 9% · 1–2: 9% · 2–1: 7%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	3%	5%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
1	3%	9%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
2	3%	7%	7%	5%	3%	1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	4%	3%	1%	1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): 1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 43% vs 67%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Hoffenheim	Leverkusen	League
League position	14th of 18 · 6 pts	4th of 18 · 13 pts	—
Elo rating	1513	1652	—
Last 5	LWLLW	WDWWW	—
Points rate (last 10)	43%	67%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.7	2.4	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	2.2	1.5	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	47%	50%	54% · 37%
Both teams score (10)	8 of 10	8 of 10	63%
3+ goals in the match (10)	9 of 10	8 of 10	65%
Days of rest	6	7	—

Goals and the first half

For each condition: the chance estimated by the model (calibrated on past seasons, the same as in the filters and the Arena), how often it happened in the teams' last 10 matches and how often across the whole league over the last 12 months. “Both teams score” = each team scores at least once (1–1 counts, 2–0 does not). “Draw or 3+ goals” = the match ends level OR has at least 3 goals (1–1 and 2–1 count, 1–0 does not); for “draw or 4+”, 2–2 and 3–1 count, 2–1 does not.

3+ goals: model 65%

Condition	Model	The teams' last 10	League, 12 months
Both teams score	63%≈ 1 in 1.60	80%16 of 20	62%
2+ goals	85%≈ 1 in 1.18	95%19 of 20	83%
3+ goals	65%≈ 1 in 1.55	85%17 of 20	65%
At most 2 goals	35%≈ 1 in 2.82	15%3 of 20	35%
Home team scores	81%≈ 1 in 1.23	90%9 of 10	84%
Away team scores	86%≈ 1 in 1.16	100%10 of 10	74%
1st half: 1+ goal	79%≈ 1 in 1.26	95%19 of 20	76%
1st half: 2+ goals	46%≈ 1 in 2.20	55%11 of 20	42%
Draw or 3+ goals	78%≈ 1 in 1.28	90%18 of 20	80%
Draw or 4+ goals	57%≈ 1 in 1.75	65%13 of 20	60%

“Last 10”: each team's league matches, home or away (for “home / away team scores”, only that team's). Tap a condition to see every upcoming match where it happened often.

Home side at home · visitors away n = 3 · 3

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 2.00 vs 2.67

	Hoffenheim at home	Leverkusen away
matches	3	3
scored / match	2.00league 2.20	2.67league 1.36
conceded / match	2.33league 1.36	2.67league 2.20
both scored	100%3 of 3 · league 57%	100%3 of 3 · league 57%
3+ goals	100%3 of 3 · league 70%	100%3 of 3 · league 70%
clean sheet	0%0 of 3 · league 34%	0%0 of 3 · league 16%
failed to score	0%0 of 3 · league 16%	0%0 of 3 · league 34%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 35% vs 50% · league 37%

HoffenheimLeverkusenleague, year before the match · n = 298

	Hoffenheim	league	Leverkusen
Winswon the match	35%7 of 2018–57%	37%223 of 59634–41%	50%10 of 2030–70%
Scoresscored at least once	85%17 of 2064–95%	79%471 of 59676–82%	95%19 of 2076–99%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	85%17 of 2064–95%	65%194 of 29860–70%	65%13 of 2043–82%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	75%15 of 2053–89%	63%187 of 29857–68%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Concedesconceded at least once	90%18 of 2070–97%	79%471 of 59676–82%	75%15 of 2053–89%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	32%188 of 59628–35%	45%9 of 2026–66%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 6 vs 13

Hoffenheim · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LWLLW

6pts

2-0-3W-D-L

9:11goals

Leverkusen · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WDWWW

13pts

4-1-0W-D-L

14:6goals

Hoffenheim · Last 5 at home n = 5

DWLWL

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

10:10goals

Leverkusen · Last 5 away n = 5

WLLDW

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

11:12goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 7 → 6 vs 7 → 13

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Hoffenheim	Leverkusen
Points (of 15)	7 → 6 ▼	7 → 13 ▲
Goals scored per match	1.6 → 1.8 ▲	2.0 → 2.8 ▲
Goals conceded per match	2.2 → 2.2 =	1.8 → 1.2 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1482 → 1529 tougher opponents	1528 (4 of 5) → 1513 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−7 (1513)	+14 (1652)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 6 vs 7

	Hoffenheim	Leverkusen
days since last match	6	7
matches in last 7 days	1	0
matches in last 14 days	1	1
position today	14 (6 pts)	4 (13 pts)
points off 1st	11	4
points off top 4	7	in top 4
points above bottom 3	0	7
matches left (incl. this one)	28	28
simulator impact	34 pp	34 pp
coach (league matches led before)	Christian Ilzer since 15 Nov 2024 · 64 matches	Carles Martínez Novell since 4 Jun 2026 · 6 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 240 km
weather at kick-off	13 °C · 0.0 mm · 15 km/h	forecast from 25 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Hoffenheim 2-0-3 (n = 5)

	home		away
17 Jan 2026	Hoffenheim	1–0	Leverkusen
23 Aug 2025	Leverkusen	1–2	Hoffenheim
2 Feb 2025	Leverkusen	3–1	Hoffenheim
14 Sep 2024	Hoffenheim	1–4	Leverkusen
30 Mar 2024	Leverkusen	2–1	Hoffenheim

All 6 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim · scoring: 6

		now	longest in our database
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	scoring	6	16
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	conceding	7	27
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	both teams score	6	11
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	3+ goals	7	9
Bayer 04 Leverkusen	unbeaten	5	35
Bayer 04 Leverkusen	wins in a row	3	10
Bayer 04 Leverkusen	scoring	18	23

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	3%	5%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
1	3%	9%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
2	3%	7%	7%	5%	3%	1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	4%	3%	1%	1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	3%	5%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
1	3%	9%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
2	3%	7%	7%	5%	3%	1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	4%	3%	1%	1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	3%	5%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
1	3%	9%	9%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
2	3%	7%	7%	5%	3%	1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	4%	3%	1%	1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%