Crystal Palace FC – Newcastle United FC

Premier League · Matchday 8 · 25 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

34%1 · Crystal Palace≈ 1 in 2.92

27%X≈ 1 in 3.76

39%2 · Newcastle≈ 1 in 2.56

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side took 7 points from their last 5 matches, the away side 4 from their last 5. The away side travel roughly 410 km. The model estimates 39% for an away win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

League position16 vs 14

Elo rating1492 vs 1526

Last 5WLDWL homeDLWLL away

Rest days7 vs 7

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 12% · 1–2: 9% · 2–1: 8%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	7%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	6%	12%	9%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
2	5%	8%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	4%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 27% vs 40%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Crystal Palace	Newcastle	League
League position	16th of 20 · 7 pts	14th of 20 · 8 pts	—
Elo rating	1492	1526	—
Last 5	WLDWL	DLWLL	—
Points rate (last 10)	27%	40%	45%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.2	1.4	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	2.4	1.8	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	40%	33%	50% · 40%
Both teams score (10)	6 of 10	7 of 10	56%
3+ goals in the match (10)	8 of 10	6 of 10	55%
Days of rest	7	7	—

Goals and the first half

For each condition: the chance estimated by the model (calibrated on past seasons, the same as in the filters and the Arena), how often it happened in the teams' last 10 matches and how often across the whole league over the last 12 months. “Both teams score” = each team scores at least once (1–1 counts, 2–0 does not). “Draw or 3+ goals” = the match ends level OR has at least 3 goals (1–1 and 2–1 count, 1–0 does not); for “draw or 4+”, 2–2 and 3–1 count, 2–1 does not.

3+ goals: model 56%

Condition	Model	The teams' last 10	League, 12 months
Both teams score	58%≈ 1 in 1.72	65%13 of 20	56%
2+ goals	79%≈ 1 in 1.26	90%18 of 20	79%
3+ goals	56%≈ 1 in 1.79	70%14 of 20	55%
At most 2 goals	44%≈ 1 in 2.27	30%6 of 20	45%
Home team scores	78%≈ 1 in 1.29	60%6 of 10	76%
Away team scores	79%≈ 1 in 1.27	80%8 of 10	73%
1st half: 1+ goal	73%≈ 1 in 1.37	85%17 of 20	70%
1st half: 2+ goals	36%≈ 1 in 2.80	50%10 of 20	35%
Draw or 3+ goals	73%≈ 1 in 1.36	80%16 of 20	74%
Draw or 4+ goals	51%≈ 1 in 1.98	65%13 of 20	50%

“Last 10”: each team's league matches, home or away (for “home / away team scores”, only that team's). Tap a condition to see every upcoming match where it happened often.

Home side at home · visitors away n = 3 · 3

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 2.00 vs 1.33

	Crystal Palace at home	Newcastle away
matches	3	3
scored / match	2.00league 1.57	1.33league 1.27
conceded / match	2.67league 1.27	2.67league 1.57
both scored	100%3 of 3 · league 52%	67%2 of 3 · league 52%
3+ goals	100%3 of 3 · league 52%	67%2 of 3 · league 52%
clean sheet	0%0 of 3 · league 25%	33%1 of 3 · league 29%
failed to score	0%0 of 3 · league 29%	0%0 of 3 · league 25%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 25% vs 35% · league 36%

Crystal PalaceNewcastleleague, year before the match · n = 374

	Crystal Palace	league	Newcastle
Winswon the match	25%5 of 2011–47%	36%268 of 74832–39%	35%7 of 2018–57%
Scoresscored at least once	65%13 of 2043–82%	75%558 of 74871–78%	85%17 of 2064–95%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	75%15 of 2053–89%	55%205 of 37450–60%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	60%12 of 2039–78%	56%210 of 37451–61%	75%15 of 2053–89%
Concedesconceded at least once	80%16 of 2058–92%	75%558 of 74871–78%	90%18 of 2070–97%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	15%3 of 205–36%	30%225 of 74827–33%	40%8 of 2022–61%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 7 vs 4

Crystal Palace · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WLDWL

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

8:11goals

Newcastle · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DLWLL

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

6:12goals

Crystal Palace · Last 5 at home n = 5

DLLLW

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

9:12goals

Newcastle · Last 5 away n = 5

DLWLL

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

5:11goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 1 → 7 vs 8 → 4

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Crystal Palace	Newcastle
Points (of 15)	1 → 7 ▲	8 → 4 ▼
Goals scored per match	0.8 → 1.6 ▲	1.6 → 1.2 ▼
Goals conceded per match	2.6 → 2.2 ▼	1.2 → 2.4 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1619 → 1498 easier opponents	1512 → 1524 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	±0 (1492)	−19 (1526)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 7 vs 7

	Crystal Palace	Newcastle
days since last match	7	7
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	1	2
position today	16 (7 pts)	14 (8 pts)
points off 1st	14	13
points off top 4	6	5
points above bottom 3	1	2
matches left (incl. this one)	31	31
simulator impact	34 pp	34 pp
coach (league matches led before)	Pierre Sage since 15 Jun 2026 · 7 matches	Matthias Jaissle since 5 Aug 2026 · 7 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 410 km
weather at kick-off	13 °C · 0.0 mm · 34 km/h	forecast from 25 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Crystal Palace 2-1-2 (n = 5)

	home		away
12 Apr 2026	Crystal Palace	2–1	Newcastle
4 Jan 2026	Newcastle	2–0	Crystal Palace
16 Apr 2025	Newcastle	5–0	Crystal Palace
30 Nov 2024	Crystal Palace	1–1	Newcastle
24 Apr 2024	Crystal Palace	2–0	Newcastle

All 6 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Newcastle United FC · conceding: 5

		now	longest in our database
Newcastle United FC	conceding	5	12

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	7%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	6%	12%	9%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
2	5%	8%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	4%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	7%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	6%	12%	9%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
2	5%	8%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	4%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	7%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	6%	12%	9%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
2	5%	8%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	4%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%