Manchester City FC – Brighton & Hove Albion FC

Premier League · Matchday 9 · 31 Oct 2026 15:00 UTC

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

54%1 · Man City≈ 1 in 1.87

24%X≈ 1 in 4.16

22%2 · Brighton Hove≈ 1 in 4.45

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

As of today, the home side have scored in each of their last 24 matches. The away side travel roughly 330 km. The model estimates 54% for a home win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

Form, streaks, position and points are today's (25 Oct 2026), not the ones at kick-off: before this match the home side still have 0 league matches to play, the away side 1.

League position1 vs 3

Elo rating1703 vs 1575

Last 5WWWWL homeDWWWW away

Rest days7 vs 6

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 11% · 2–1: 10% · 2–0: 8%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	5%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	7%	11%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	6%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 73% vs 63%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Man City	Brighton Hove	League
League position	1st of 20 · 21 pts	3rd of 20 · 16 pts	—
Elo rating	1703	1575	—
Last 5	WWWWL	DWWWW	—
Points rate (last 10)	73%	63%	45%
Goals scored per match (10)	2.2	2.6	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.2	0.9	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	83%	53%	50% · 40%
Both teams score (10)	7 of 10	2 of 10	56%
3+ goals in the match (10)	7 of 10	7 of 10	55%
Days of rest	7	6	—

Home side at home · visitors away n = 4 · 3

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 2.75 vs 3.33

	Man City at home	Brighton Hove away
matches	4	3
scored / match	2.75league 1.57	3.33league 1.27
conceded / match	1.50league 1.27	1.33league 1.57
both scored	75%3 of 4 · league 52%	33%1 of 3 · league 52%
3+ goals	75%3 of 4 · league 52%	67%2 of 3 · league 52%
clean sheet	25%1 of 4 · league 25%	67%2 of 3 · league 29%
failed to score	0%0 of 4 · league 29%	0%0 of 3 · league 25%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 70% vs 60% · league 35%

Man CityBrighton Hoveleague, year before the match · n = 365

	Man City	league	Brighton Hove
Winswon the match	70%14 of 2048–85%	35%259 of 73032–39%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Scoresscored at least once	100%20 of 2084–100%	75%544 of 73071–78%	80%16 of 2058–92%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	70%14 of 2048–85%	55%199 of 36549–60%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	60%12 of 2039–78%	56%205 of 36551–61%	30%6 of 2015–52%
Concedesconceded at least once	60%12 of 2039–78%	75%544 of 73071–78%	50%10 of 2030–70%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	55%11 of 2034–74%	30%218 of 73027–33%	45%9 of 2026–66%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 12 vs 13

Man City · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WWWWL

12pts

4-0-1W-D-L

13:7goals

Brighton Hove · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DWWWW

13pts

4-1-0W-D-L

16:1goals

Man City · Last 5 at home n = 5

LWWWW

12pts

4-0-1W-D-L

12:8goals

Brighton Hove · Last 5 away n = 5

LLLWW

6pts

2-0-3W-D-L

11:8goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 10 → 12 vs 6 → 13

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Man City	Brighton Hove
Points (of 15)	10 → 12 ▲	6 → 13 ▲
Goals scored per match	1.8 → 2.6 ▲	2.0 → 3.2 ▲
Goals conceded per match	1.0 → 1.4 ▲	1.6 → 0.2 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1532 → 1532 the same	1518 → 1543 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+10 (1703)	+34 (1575)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 7 vs 6

	Man City	Brighton Hove
days since last match	7	6
matches in last 7 days	0	1
matches in last 14 days	2	2
position today	1 (21 pts)	3 (16 pts)
points off 1st	0	5
points off top 4	in top 4	in top 4
points above bottom 3	15	10
matches left (incl. this one)	30	30
simulator impact	37 pp	37 pp
coach (league matches led before)	Enzo Maresca since 29 Jun 2026 · 8 matches	Fabian Hürzeler since 1 Jul 2024 · 83 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 330 km

Weather: the forecast appears 3 days before kick-off.

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Man City 1-2-2 (n = 5)

	home		away
7 Jan 2026	Man City	1–1	Brighton Hove
31 Aug 2025	Brighton Hove	2–1	Man City
15 Mar 2025	Man City	2–2	Brighton Hove
9 Nov 2024	Brighton Hove	2–1	Man City
25 Apr 2024	Brighton Hove	0–4	Man City

All 6 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Manchester City FC · scoring: 24

		now	longest in our database
Manchester City FC	scoring	24	24
Manchester City FC	3+ goals	4	9
Brighton & Hove Albion FC	unbeaten	5	6
Brighton & Hove Albion FC	wins in a row	4	4
Brighton & Hove Albion FC	scoring	7	16
Brighton & Hove Albion FC	clean sheets	4	4

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	5%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	7%	11%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	6%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	5%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	7%	11%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	6%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	5%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	7%	11%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	6%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%