RC Strasbourg Alsace – AJ Auxerre

Ligue 1 · Matchday 9 · 1 Nov 2026 14:00 UTC

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

57%1 · Strasbourg≈ 1 in 1.75

22%X≈ 1 in 4.61

21%2 · Auxerre≈ 1 in 4.69

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

As of today, the away side have scored in each of their last 12 matches. The away side travel roughly 320 km. The model estimates 57% for a home win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

Form, streaks, position and points are today's (25 Oct 2026), not the ones at kick-off: before this match the home side still have 1 league matches to play, the away side 1.

League position14 vs 13

Elo rating1539 vs 1473

Last 5WDLLL homeLWWLW away

Rest days6 vs 6

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 10% · 2–1: 10% · 2–0: 8%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	7%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): 1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 47% vs 60%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Strasbourg	Auxerre	League
League position	14th of 18 · 7 pts	13th of 18 · 9 pts	—
Elo rating	1539	1473	—
Last 5	WDLLL	LWWLW	—
Points rate (last 10)	47%	60%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	2.0	1.8	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	2.1	1.9	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	50%	30%	52% · 40%
Both teams score (10)	9 of 10	8 of 10	53%
3+ goals in the match (10)	8 of 10	8 of 10	54%
Days of rest	6	6	—

Home side at home · visitors away n = 3 · 4

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 1.33 vs 1.75

	Strasbourg at home	Auxerre away
matches	3	4
scored / match	1.33league 1.63	1.75league 1.42
conceded / match	1.67league 1.42	3.25league 1.63
both scored	100%3 of 3 · league 65%	100%4 of 4 · league 65%
3+ goals	67%2 of 3 · league 65%	100%4 of 4 · league 65%
clean sheet	0%0 of 3 · league 23%	0%0 of 4 · league 18%
failed to score	0%0 of 3 · league 18%	0%0 of 4 · league 23%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 40% vs 40% · league 38%

StrasbourgAuxerreleague, year before the match · n = 281

	Strasbourg	league	Auxerre
Winswon the match	40%8 of 2022–61%	38%212 of 56234–42%	40%8 of 2022–61%
Scoresscored at least once	80%16 of 2058–92%	72%405 of 56268–76%	80%16 of 2058–92%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	75%15 of 2053–89%	54%153 of 28149–60%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	80%16 of 2058–92%	53%149 of 28147–59%	65%13 of 2043–82%
Concedesconceded at least once	90%18 of 2070–97%	72%405 of 56268–76%	75%15 of 2053–89%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	35%7 of 2018–57%	31%172 of 56027–35%	30%6 of 2015–52%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 4 vs 9

Strasbourg · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WDLLL

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

10:10goals

Auxerre · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LWWLW

9pts

3-0-2W-D-L

8:9goals

Strasbourg · Last 5 at home n = 5

LWWDL

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

10:11goals

Auxerre · Last 5 away n = 5

WLLLW

6pts

2-0-3W-D-L

9:13goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 10 → 4 vs 9 → 9

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Strasbourg	Auxerre
Points (of 15)	10 → 4 ▼	9 → 9 =
Goals scored per match	2.0 → 2.0 =	2.0 → 1.6 ▼
Goals conceded per match	2.2 → 2.0 ▼	2.0 → 1.8 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1538 → 1565 tougher opponents	1513 → 1507 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−5 (1539)	+7 (1473)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 6 vs 6

	Strasbourg	Auxerre
days since last match	6	6
matches in last 7 days	1	1
matches in last 14 days	1	2
position today	14 (7 pts)	13 (9 pts)
points off 1st	7	5
points off top 4	7	5
points above bottom 3	1	3
matches left (incl. this one)	26	26
simulator impact	33 pp	33 pp
coach (league matches led before)	Hugo Oliveira since 15 Jul 2026 · 7 matches	Will Still since 12 Jun 2026 · 7 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 320 km

Weather: the forecast appears 3 days before kick-off.

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Strasbourg 3-1-0 (n = 4)

	home		away
7 Mar 2026	Auxerre	0–0	Strasbourg
29 Oct 2025	Strasbourg	3–0	Auxerre
2 Mar 2025	Auxerre	0–1	Strasbourg
5 Jan 2025	Strasbourg	3–1	Auxerre

All 4 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

RC Strasbourg Alsace · winless: 4

		now	longest in our database
RC Strasbourg Alsace	winless	4	8
RC Strasbourg Alsace	scoring	6	16
RC Strasbourg Alsace	conceding	15	15
RC Strasbourg Alsace	both teams score	6	11
RC Strasbourg Alsace	3+ goals	3	7
AJ Auxerre	scoring	12	12
AJ Auxerre	conceding	3	7
AJ Auxerre	both teams score	3	4
AJ Auxerre	3+ goals	3	9

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	7%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	7%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	7%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	3%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%