Stade Rennais FC 1901 – RC Strasbourg Alsace

Ligue 1 · Matchday 8 · 25 Oct 2026 16:15 UTC

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

48%1 · Stade Rennais≈ 1 in 2.08

21%X≈ 1 in 4.75

31%2 · Strasbourg≈ 1 in 3.25

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side have scored in each of their last 6 matches. The away side travel roughly 700 km. The model estimates 48% for a home win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

League position7 vs 14

Elo rating1555 vs 1539

Last 5WWLWL homeWDLLL away

Rest days7 vs 8

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 8% · 2–1: 8% · 1–2: 7%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	2%	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	4%	8%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
2	5%	8%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
3	3%	6%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): 1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 53% vs 47%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Stade Rennais	Strasbourg	League
League position	7th of 18 · 13 pts	14th of 18 · 7 pts	—
Elo rating	1555	1539	—
Last 5	WWLWL	WDLLL	—
Points rate (last 10)	53%	47%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	2.0	2.0	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	2.2	2.1	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	77%	50%	53% · 39%
Both teams score (10)	8 of 10	9 of 10	53%
3+ goals in the match (10)	9 of 10	8 of 10	55%
Days of rest	7	8	—

Goals and the first half

For each condition: the chance estimated by the model (calibrated on past seasons, the same as in the filters and the Arena), how often it happened in the teams' last 10 matches and how often across the whole league over the last 12 months. “Both teams score” = each team scores at least once (1–1 counts, 2–0 does not). “Draw or 3+ goals” = the match ends level OR has at least 3 goals (1–1 and 2–1 count, 1–0 does not); for “draw or 4+”, 2–2 and 3–1 count, 2–1 does not.

3+ goals: model 67%

Condition	Model	The teams' last 10	League, 12 months
Both teams score	64%≈ 1 in 1.56	85%17 of 20	53%
2+ goals	86%≈ 1 in 1.17	95%19 of 20	74%
3+ goals	67%≈ 1 in 1.50	85%17 of 20	55%
At most 2 goals	33%≈ 1 in 2.99	15%3 of 20	45%
Home team scores	89%≈ 1 in 1.12	90%9 of 10	76%
Away team scores	82%≈ 1 in 1.23	90%9 of 10	69%
1st half: 1+ goal	79%≈ 1 in 1.26	80%16 of 20	71%
1st half: 2+ goals	46%≈ 1 in 2.19	60%12 of 20	34%
Draw or 3+ goals	79%≈ 1 in 1.26	95%19 of 20	72%
Draw or 4+ goals	59%≈ 1 in 1.70	65%13 of 20	50%

“Last 10”: each team's league matches, home or away (for “home / away team scores”, only that team's). Tap a condition to see every upcoming match where it happened often.

Home side at home · visitors away n = 4 · 4

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 2.50 vs 2.00

	Stade Rennais at home	Strasbourg away
matches	4	4
scored / match	2.50league 1.63	2.00league 1.42
conceded / match	1.25league 1.42	2.50league 1.63
both scored	75%3 of 4 · league 65%	75%3 of 4 · league 65%
3+ goals	75%3 of 4 · league 65%	100%4 of 4 · league 65%
clean sheet	25%1 of 4 · league 23%	0%0 of 4 · league 18%
failed to score	0%0 of 4 · league 18%	25%1 of 4 · league 23%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 65% vs 40% · league 38%

Stade RennaisStrasbourgleague, year before the match · n = 297

	Stade Rennais	league	Strasbourg
Winswon the match	65%13 of 2043–82%	38%224 of 59434–42%	40%8 of 2022–61%
Scoresscored at least once	90%18 of 2070–97%	72%430 of 59469–76%	80%16 of 2058–92%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	85%17 of 2064–95%	55%162 of 29749–60%	75%15 of 2053–89%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	65%13 of 2043–82%	53%158 of 29748–59%	80%16 of 2058–92%
Concedesconceded at least once	70%14 of 2048–85%	72%430 of 59469–76%	90%18 of 2070–97%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	50%10 of 2030–70%	30%179 of 59227–34%	35%7 of 2018–57%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 9 vs 4

Stade Rennais · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WWLWL

9pts

3-0-2W-D-L

10:10goals

Strasbourg · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WDLLL

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

10:10goals

Stade Rennais · Last 5 at home n = 5

WDWWW

13pts

4-1-0W-D-L

12:6goals

Strasbourg · Last 5 away n = 5

WLWLL

6pts

2-0-3W-D-L

10:11goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 7 → 9 vs 10 → 4

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Stade Rennais	Strasbourg
Points (of 15)	7 → 9 ▲	10 → 4 ▼
Goals scored per match	2.0 → 2.0 =	2.0 → 2.0 =
Goals conceded per match	2.4 → 2.0 ▼	2.2 → 2.0 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1575 → 1517 easier opponents	1538 → 1565 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+2 (1555)	−5 (1539)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 7 vs 8

	Stade Rennais	Strasbourg
days since last match	7	8
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	1	1
position today	7 (13 pts)	14 (7 pts)
points off 1st	1	7
points off top 4	1	7
points above bottom 3	7	1
matches left (incl. this one)	27	27
simulator impact	51 pp	51 pp
coach (league matches led before)	Franck Haise since 18 Feb 2026 · 19 matches	Hugo Oliveira since 15 Jul 2026 · 7 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 700 km
weather at kick-off	14 °C · 0.0 mm · 18 km/h	forecast from 25 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Stade Rennais 3-0-2 (n = 5)

	home		away
19 Apr 2026	Strasbourg	0–3	Stade Rennais
2 Nov 2025	Stade Rennais	4–1	Strasbourg
2 Feb 2025	Stade Rennais	1–0	Strasbourg
25 Aug 2024	Strasbourg	3–1	Stade Rennais
31 Mar 2024	Strasbourg	2–0	Stade Rennais

All 6 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Stade Rennais FC 1901 · conceding: 3

		now	longest in our database
Stade Rennais FC 1901	conceding	3	9
Stade Rennais FC 1901	3+ goals	3	10
RC Strasbourg Alsace	winless	4	8
RC Strasbourg Alsace	scoring	6	16
RC Strasbourg Alsace	conceding	15	15
RC Strasbourg Alsace	both teams score	6	11
RC Strasbourg Alsace	3+ goals	3	7

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	2%	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	4%	8%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
2	5%	8%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
3	3%	6%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	2%	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	4%	8%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
2	5%	8%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
3	3%	6%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	2%	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	4%	8%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
2	5%	8%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
3	3%	6%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%