Villarreal CF – RCD Espanyol de Barcelona

La Liga · Matchday 11 · 30 Oct 2026 20:00 UTC

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

64%1 · Villarreal≈ 1 in 1.55

21%X≈ 1 in 4.69

14%2 · Espanyol≈ 1 in 6.97

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side are winless in their last 5 matches. The home side are 4 points above the bottom three with 28 matches left. The model estimates 64% for a home win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

League position8 vs 18

Elo rating1595 vs 1461

Last 5WWLDW homeLLDLL away

Rest days6 vs 6

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

2–0: 11% · 1–0: 10% · 1–1: 10%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	11%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	8%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	4%	3%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): 1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 40% vs 27%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Villarreal	Espanyol	League
League position	8th of 20 · 12 pts	18th of 20 · 8 pts	—
Elo rating	1595	1461	—
Last 5	WWLDW	LLDLL	—
Points rate (last 10)	40%	27%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.5	1.2	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.4	1.4	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	63%	27%	57% · 35%
Both teams score (10)	7 of 10	7 of 10	57%
3+ goals in the match (10)	7 of 10	6 of 10	52%
Days of rest	6	6	—

Home side at home · visitors away n = 4 · 5

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 1.50 vs 1.20

	Villarreal at home	Espanyol away
matches	4	5
scored / match	1.50league 1.69	1.20league 1.35
conceded / match	1.50league 1.35	1.40league 1.69
both scored	75%3 of 4 · league 60%	80%4 of 5 · league 60%
3+ goals	75%3 of 4 · league 56%	60%3 of 5 · league 56%
clean sheet	25%1 of 4 · league 30%	20%1 of 5 · league 19%
failed to score	25%1 of 4 · league 19%	0%0 of 5 · league 30%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 40% vs 20% · league 38%

VillarrealEspanyolleague, year before the match · n = 374

	Villarreal	league	Espanyol
Winswon the match	40%8 of 2022–61%	38%282 of 74834–41%	20%4 of 208–42%
Scoresscored at least once	75%15 of 2053–89%	76%568 of 74873–79%	75%15 of 2053–89%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	65%13 of 2043–82%	52%196 of 37447–57%	50%10 of 2030–70%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	75%15 of 2053–89%	57%214 of 37452–62%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Concedesconceded at least once	95%19 of 2076–99%	76%568 of 74873–79%	75%15 of 2053–89%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	35%7 of 2018–57%	28%209 of 74825–31%	20%4 of 208–42%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 10 vs 1

Villarreal · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WWLDW

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

8:4goals

Espanyol · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LLDLL

1pts

0-1-4W-D-L

4:9goals

Villarreal · Last 5 at home n = 5

WLLWD

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

11:7goals

Espanyol · Last 5 away n = 5

LWLDL

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

6:7goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 2 → 10 vs 7 → 1

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Villarreal	Espanyol
Points (of 15)	2 → 10 ▲	7 → 1 ▼
Goals scored per match	1.4 → 1.6 ▲	1.6 → 0.8 ▼
Goals conceded per match	2.0 → 0.8 ▼	1.0 → 1.8 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1543 (4 of 5) → 1531 easier opponents	1526 → 1514 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+10 (1595)	−19 (1461)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 6 vs 6

	Villarreal	Espanyol
days since last match	6	6
matches in last 7 days	1	1
matches in last 14 days	3	2
position today	8 (12 pts)	18 (8 pts)
points off 1st	15	19
points off top 4	7	11
points above bottom 3	4	bottom 3 · 1 off 17th
matches left (incl. this one)	28	28
simulator impact	39 pp	39 pp
coach (league matches led before)	Iñigo Pérez since 1 Jun 2026 · 10 matches	Manolo González since 12 Mar 2024 · 86 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 240 km

Weather: the forecast appears 3 days before kick-off.

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Villarreal 4-0-0 (n = 4)

	home		away
9 Feb 2026	Villarreal	4–1	Espanyol
8 Nov 2025	Espanyol	0–2	Villarreal
27 Apr 2025	Villarreal	1–0	Espanyol
26 Sep 2024	Espanyol	1–2	Villarreal

All 4 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

RCD Espanyol de Barcelona · winless: 5

		now	longest in our database
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona	winless	5	18
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona	conceding	5	13

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	11%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	8%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	4%	3%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	11%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	8%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	4%	3%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	11%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	8%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	4%	3%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%