Liverpool FC – Brighton & Hove Albion FC

Premier League · Matchday 8 · 25 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

41%1 · Liverpool≈ 1 in 2.42

25%X≈ 1 in 3.93

33%2 · Brighton Hove≈ 1 in 3.02

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side have scored in each of their last 7 matches. The home side last played 4 days ago, the away side 7 days ago. The model estimates 41% for a home win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

League position5 vs 3

Elo rating1626 vs 1575

Last 5WDWLW homeDWWWW away

Rest days4 vs 7

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 12% · 2–1: 9% · 1–2: 8%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	5%	5%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	6%	12%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	9%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 47% vs 63%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Liverpool	Brighton Hove	League
League position	5th of 20 · 12 pts	3rd of 20 · 16 pts	—
Elo rating	1626	1575	—
Last 5	WDWLW	DWWWW	—
Points rate (last 10)	47%	63%	45%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.3	2.6	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.4	0.9	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	47%	53%	50% · 40%
Both teams score (10)	6 of 10	2 of 10	56%
3+ goals in the match (10)	5 of 10	7 of 10	55%
Days of rest	4	7	—

Goals and the first half

For each condition: the chance estimated by the model (calibrated on past seasons, the same as in the filters and the Arena), how often it happened in the teams' last 10 matches and how often across the whole league over the last 12 months. “Both teams score” = each team scores at least once (1–1 counts, 2–0 does not). “Draw or 3+ goals” = the match ends level OR has at least 3 goals (1–1 and 2–1 count, 1–0 does not); for “draw or 4+”, 2–2 and 3–1 count, 2–1 does not.

3+ goals: model 58%

Condition	Model	The teams' last 10	League, 12 months
Both teams score	60%≈ 1 in 1.68	40%8 of 20	56%
2+ goals	81%≈ 1 in 1.24	85%17 of 20	79%
3+ goals	58%≈ 1 in 1.71	60%12 of 20	55%
At most 2 goals	42%≈ 1 in 2.41	40%8 of 20	45%
Home team scores	83%≈ 1 in 1.21	80%8 of 10	76%
Away team scores	78%≈ 1 in 1.29	80%8 of 10	73%
1st half: 1+ goal	74%≈ 1 in 1.34	70%14 of 20	70%
1st half: 2+ goals	38%≈ 1 in 2.64	40%8 of 20	35%
Draw or 3+ goals	75%≈ 1 in 1.34	80%16 of 20	74%
Draw or 4+ goals	52%≈ 1 in 1.91	55%11 of 20	50%

“Last 10”: each team's league matches, home or away (for “home / away team scores”, only that team's). Tap a condition to see every upcoming match where it happened often.

Home side at home · visitors away n = 3 · 3

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 0.67 vs 3.33

	Liverpool at home	Brighton Hove away
matches	3	3
scored / match	0.67league 1.57	3.33league 1.27
conceded / match	1.67league 1.27	1.33league 1.57
both scored	33%1 of 3 · league 52%	33%1 of 3 · league 52%
3+ goals	67%2 of 3 · league 52%	67%2 of 3 · league 52%
clean sheet	33%1 of 3 · league 25%	67%2 of 3 · league 29%
failed to score	67%2 of 3 · league 29%	0%0 of 3 · league 25%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 45% vs 60% · league 36%

LiverpoolBrighton Hoveleague, year before the match · n = 374

	Liverpool	league	Brighton Hove
Winswon the match	45%9 of 2026–66%	36%268 of 74832–39%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Scoresscored at least once	90%18 of 2070–97%	75%558 of 74871–78%	80%16 of 2058–92%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	55%11 of 2034–74%	55%205 of 37450–60%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	65%13 of 2043–82%	56%210 of 37451–61%	30%6 of 2015–52%
Concedesconceded at least once	70%14 of 2048–85%	75%558 of 74871–78%	50%10 of 2030–70%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	30%6 of 2015–52%	30%225 of 74827–33%	45%9 of 2026–66%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 10 vs 13

Liverpool · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WDWLW

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

5:4goals

Brighton Hove · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DWWWW

13pts

4-1-0W-D-L

16:1goals

Liverpool · Last 5 at home n = 5

DDDDL

4pts

0-4-1W-D-L

4:7goals

Brighton Hove · Last 5 away n = 5

LLLWW

6pts

2-0-3W-D-L

11:8goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 4 → 10 vs 6 → 13

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Liverpool	Brighton Hove
Points (of 15)	4 → 10 ▲	6 → 13 ▲
Goals scored per match	1.6 → 1.0 ▼	2.0 → 3.2 ▲
Goals conceded per match	2.0 → 0.8 ▼	1.6 → 0.2 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1535 → 1536 tougher opponents	1518 → 1543 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+2 (1626)	+34 (1575)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 4 vs 7

	Liverpool	Brighton Hove
days since last match	4	7
matches in last 7 days	1	0
matches in last 14 days	4	1
position today	5 (12 pts)	3 (16 pts)
points off 1st	9	5
points off top 4	1	in top 4
points above bottom 3	6	10
matches left (incl. this one)	31	31
simulator impact	52 pp	52 pp
coach (league matches led before)	Andoni Iraola since 4 Jun 2026 · 7 matches	Fabian Hürzeler since 1 Jul 2024 · 83 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 350 km
weather at kick-off	11 °C · 0.1 mm · 38 km/h	forecast from 25 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Liverpool 3-0-2 (n = 5)

	home		away
21 Mar 2026	Brighton Hove	2–1	Liverpool
13 Dec 2025	Liverpool	2–0	Brighton Hove
19 May 2025	Brighton Hove	3–2	Liverpool
2 Nov 2024	Liverpool	2–1	Brighton Hove
31 Mar 2024	Liverpool	2–1	Brighton Hove

All 6 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Brighton & Hove Albion FC · unbeaten: 5

		now	longest in our database
Brighton & Hove Albion FC	unbeaten	5	6
Brighton & Hove Albion FC	wins in a row	4	4
Brighton & Hove Albion FC	scoring	7	16
Brighton & Hove Albion FC	clean sheets	4	4

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	5%	5%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	6%	12%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	9%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	5%	5%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	6%	12%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	9%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	5%	5%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	6%	12%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	9%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%