Athletic Club – Real Sociedad de Fútbol

La Liga · Matchday 11 · 1 Nov 2026 20:00 UTC · Derby

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

45%1 · Athletic≈ 1 in 2.20

26%X≈ 1 in 3.88

29%2 · Real Sociedad≈ 1 in 3.46

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

As of today, the home side are winless in their last 4 matches. The away side are 8 points above the bottom three with 29 matches left. The model estimates 45% for a home win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

Form, streaks, position and points are today's (25 Oct 2026), not the ones at kick-off: before this match the home side still have 2 league matches to play, the away side 1.

League position17 vs 5

Elo rating1525 vs 1513

Last 5WDDDL homeWLWWW away

Rest days7 vs 7

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 12% · 2–1: 9% · 1–0: 8%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	6%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	12%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	9%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	4%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 33% vs 57%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Athletic	Real Sociedad	League
League position	17th of 20 · 9 pts	5th of 20 · 16 pts	—
Elo rating	1525	1513	—
Last 5	WDDDL	WLWWW	—
Points rate (last 10)	33%	57%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.1	1.8	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.4	1.8	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	40%	40%	56% · 35%
Both teams score (10)	5 of 10	7 of 10	57%
3+ goals in the match (10)	4 of 10	7 of 10	52%
Days of rest	7	7	—

Home side at home · visitors away n = 4 · 5

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 1.25 vs 2.40

	Athletic at home	Real Sociedad away
matches	4	5
scored / match	1.25league 1.69	2.40league 1.35
conceded / match	1.00league 1.35	2.20league 1.69
both scored	50%2 of 4 · league 60%	80%4 of 5 · league 60%
3+ goals	50%2 of 4 · league 56%	80%4 of 5 · league 56%
clean sheet	50%2 of 4 · league 30%	0%0 of 5 · league 19%
failed to score	25%1 of 4 · league 19%	20%1 of 5 · league 30%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 25% vs 35% · league 38%

AthleticReal Sociedadleague, year before the match · n = 370

	Athletic	league	Real Sociedad
Winswon the match	25%5 of 2011–47%	38%278 of 74034–41%	35%7 of 2018–57%
Scoresscored at least once	60%12 of 2039–78%	76%562 of 74073–79%	75%15 of 2053–89%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	52%192 of 37047–57%	65%13 of 2043–82%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	57%212 of 37052–62%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Concedesconceded at least once	75%15 of 2053–89%	76%562 of 74073–79%	90%18 of 2070–97%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	20%4 of 208–42%	28%208 of 74025–31%	40%8 of 2022–61%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 6 vs 12

Athletic · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WDDDL

6pts

1-3-1W-D-L

5:4goals

Real Sociedad · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WLWWW

12pts

4-0-1W-D-L

14:11goals

Athletic · Last 5 at home n = 5

DLWDD

6pts

1-3-1W-D-L

6:5goals

Real Sociedad · Last 5 away n = 5

LLWWW

9pts

3-0-2W-D-L

12:11goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 4 → 6 vs 5 → 12

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Athletic	Real Sociedad
Points (of 15)	4 → 6 ▲	5 → 12 ▲
Goals scored per match	1.2 → 1.0 ▼	0.8 → 2.8 ▲
Goals conceded per match	2.0 → 0.8 ▼	1.4 → 2.2 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1587 → 1508 easier opponents	1547 → 1514 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	±0 (1525)	+18 (1513)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 7 vs 7

	Athletic	Real Sociedad
days since last match	7	7
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	2	1
position today	17 (9 pts)	5 (16 pts)
points off 1st	18	11
points off top 4	10	3
points above bottom 3	1	8
matches left (incl. this one)	28	28
simulator impact	42 pp	42 pp
coach (league matches led before)	Edin Terzić since May 2026 · 13 matches	Pellegrino Matarazzo since 20 Dec 2025 · 31 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 80 km

Derby: Basque derby.

Weather: the forecast appears 3 days before kick-off.

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Athletic 2-2-1 (n = 5)

	home		away
1 Feb 2026	Athletic	1–1	Real Sociedad
1 Nov 2025	Real Sociedad	3–2	Athletic
4 May 2025	Real Sociedad	0–0	Athletic
24 Nov 2024	Athletic	1–0	Real Sociedad
13 Jan 2024	Athletic	2–1	Real Sociedad

All 6 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Athletic Club · winless: 4

		now	longest in our database
Athletic Club	winless	4	6
Real Sociedad de Fútbol	unbeaten	3	7
Real Sociedad de Fútbol	wins in a row	3	3
Real Sociedad de Fútbol	scoring	3	16
Real Sociedad de Fútbol	conceding	5	19
Real Sociedad de Fútbol	both teams score	3	10
Real Sociedad de Fútbol	3+ goals	5	6

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	6%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	12%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	9%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	4%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	6%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	12%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	9%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	4%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	6%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	8%	12%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	9%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	4%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%