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Toulouse FC

Ligue 1 · season 2026-27 · 7 matches

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12League position12 of 18 in the regular season table (9 points, 7 played).
1509Elo ratingGoes up when the team gets more from its matches than expected, down when it gets less. Rank 10 of 18 in Ligue 1. Own rating (H = 50, K = 10), parameters calibrated on 624 Liga 1 match (Brier 0.1582 vs 0.1679) and used in every league.

How it is doing now

In short, from results: the last 5 matches (W = win, D = draw, L = loss, most recent on the right), the points rate (how many of the possible points it took, next to the league average), the state (how many of 3 measures are above the league average) and what happens to it most consistently.

Toulouse12th of 18Good form 3 of 3 measures above the benchmarkLast 5LDWDWPoints rate · last 1053%league 46%Goal difference +3 in the last 10 · Elo +11.6 in the last 5Most consistent · last 20Nothing above the league rate in the cautious reading.
How the box is calculated
  • Points rate = the points taken in the last 10 matches, divided by the possible ones (3 per match). League average = the same calculation over all the league's matches in the 365 days before.
  • The state counts 3 measures: (1) the points rate over the last 10 matches is above the league average; (2) the goal difference over the last 10 matches is positive; (3) the Elo rating rose over the last 5 matches (Elo accounts for the opponents' strength). Equal to the benchmark does not count.
  • 3 of 3 = good form · 2 = above average · 1 = below average · 0 = poor form. The state appears from 6 consecutive matches in our data.
  • Most consistent = at most 3 things from the last 20 matches that happened more often than in the league even in the cautious reading (the lower bound of the 95% interval is above the league rate). If there is none, the box says so.
  • “Consecutive” = no break longer than 180 days: for a team back in the league, the count starts from its return.
  • The state describes results so far, not what comes next and not the team's morale.

Next match

The team's next scheduled match, with the model's estimate for 1 (home win), X (draw) and 2 (away win). An estimate, not advice; it is frozen before kick-off and its record is public.

Toulouse FC – ES Troyes AC

· Home

The model's estimate appears at most 14 days before kick-off.

Explore Toulouse FC

The analysis pages this team appears on. Each card shows the team's figure taken from the very page it opens; open it to see it next to the other teams and the league benchmark.

01 / 07Season simulator15%chance of a top-6 finishWhere does its season end? →02 / 07Fixture difficulty0.54difficulty of the next 5 matches (from 0, easy, to 1, hard)How hard is what comes next? →03 / 07Half-time → full-time76%won after leading at half-time (19 of 25)Does it hold on to a half-time lead? →04 / 07Upsets against the model1upset in the team's favour in 2025-26 ↺ (expected 1.0)How often did it surprise the model? →05 / 07Exact scores1–2the team's most common score (13 of 109 matches)What score do its matches end with most? →06 / 07Top scorers5Casper Tengstedt, the team's top league scorerWho scores its goals? →07 / 07Elo ratings1509Elo rating: #10 in Ligue 1How strong is it, really? →

Elo rating over time n = 109

The team's Elo rating after every match in our database (green line) next to the average rating of the teams playing the same season of its league (grey line). The rating goes up after a result better than expected and down after a worse one; the line breaks where the team played outside the leagues we follow. Hover or tap the chart for a single match; every value is also in the table below.

1509now
1520highest25 Jan 2026
1469lowest28 Jan 2024
+16last 10 matches
Toulouse FCleague average (teams of the same season)
146014801500152015402023-242024-252025-262026-27
All ratings (table)
dateopponentscoreratingchangeleague avg.
16 Oct 2026Le Mans (A)3–01509+101530
10 Oct 2026Monaco (A)2–21499+21530
19 Sep 2026Le Havre (H)3–21497+31530
12 Sep 2026Lorient (A)2–2149401530
3 Sep 2026Lille (H)0–11493−41530
29 Aug 2026Brest (A)2–21497+11530
22 Aug 2026Olympique Lyon (H)0–21497−71530
17 May 2026Nantes (A)0–01504−11518
10 May 2026Olympique Lyon (H)2–11505+61518
3 May 2026Strasbourg (A)2–11499+61518
25 Apr 2026Monaco (H)2–21493+11518
17 Apr 2026RC Lens (A)2–31492−31518
12 Apr 2026Lille (H)0–41495−91518
3 Apr 2026PSG (A)1–31504−31518
21 Mar 2026Lorient (H)1–01506+41518
15 Mar 2026FC Metz (A)4–31502+41518
7 Mar 2026Marseille (H)0–11498−41518
28 Feb 2026Stade Rennais (A)0–11503−41518
21 Feb 2026Paris FC (H)1–11507−11518
15 Feb 2026Le Havre (A)1–21508−51518
8 Feb 2026Angers SCO (A)0–11513−51518
1 Feb 2026Auxerre (H)0–01518−21518
25 Jan 2026Brest (A)2–01520+91518
17 Jan 2026Nice (H)5–11511+91518
2 Jan 2026RC Lens (H)0–31503−81518
13 Dec 2025Paris FC (A)3–01511+101518
6 Dec 2025Strasbourg (H)1–01501+51518
29 Nov 2025Marseille (A)2–21497+21518
23 Nov 2025Angers SCO (H)0–11494−61518
9 Nov 2025Lorient (A)1–1150101518
2 Nov 2025Le Havre (H)0–01501−21518
29 Oct 2025Stade Rennais (H)2–21503−11518
25 Oct 2025Monaco (A)0–11504−31518
19 Oct 2025FC Metz (H)4–01507+61518
5 Oct 2025Olympique Lyon (A)2–11501+71518
27 Sep 2025Nantes (H)2–21494−21518
21 Sep 2025Auxerre (A)0–11496−51518
14 Sep 2025Lille (A)1–21500−31518
30 Aug 2025PSG (H)3–61504−51518
24 Aug 2025Brest (H)2–01509+71518
16 Aug 2025Nice (A)1–01502+71518
17 May 2025Saint-Étienne (A)3–21495+51511
10 May 2025RC Lens (H)1–1149001511
3 May 2025Stade Rennais (H)2–11490+41511
27 Apr 2025Nantes (A)0–0148601511
20 Apr 2025Stade de Reims (A)0–11486−51511
12 Apr 2025Lille (H)1–21491−51511
6 Apr 2025Marseille (A)2–31495−41511
30 Mar 2025Brest (H)2–41499−81511
16 Mar 2025Strasbourg (A)1–21507−41511
7 Mar 2025Monaco (H)1–1151101511
2 Mar 2025Angers SCO (A)4–01511+101511
23 Feb 2025Le Havre (A)4–11501+81511
15 Feb 2025PSG (H)0–11493−31511
9 Feb 2025Auxerre (A)2–21496+11511
2 Feb 2025Nice (H)1–1149501511
26 Jan 2025Montpellier (H)1–21495−71511
18 Jan 2025Olympique Lyon (A)0–01502+11511
12 Jan 2025Strasbourg (H)1–21500−61511
5 Jan 2025RC Lens (A)1–01507+61511
13 Dec 2024Saint-Étienne (H)2–11500+41511
7 Dec 2024Monaco (A)0–21497−51511
1 Dec 2024Auxerre (H)2–01501+71511
22 Nov 2024PSG (A)0–31495−41511
10 Nov 2024Stade Rennais (A)2–01499+91511
3 Nov 2024Stade de Reims (H)1–01490+41511
27 Oct 2024Montpellier (A)3–01485+91511
20 Oct 2024Angers SCO (H)1–11476−11511
5 Oct 2024Lille (A)1–21477−31511
29 Sep 2024Olympique Lyon (H)1–21480−61511
22 Sep 2024Brest (A)0–21485−61511
15 Sep 2024Le Havre (H)2–01491+61511
31 Aug 2024Marseille (H)1–31485−81511
25 Aug 2024Nice (A)1–11493+11511
18 Aug 2024Nantes (H)0–01492−11511
19 May 2024Brest (H)0–31493−91500
12 May 2024PSG (A)3–11502+111500
3 May 2024Montpellier (H)1–21491−61500
28 Apr 2024Lorient (A)2–11497+51500
21 Apr 2024Marseille (H)2–2149201500
13 Apr 2024Stade Rennais (A)2–11492+61500
7 Apr 2024Strasbourg (H)0–01486−11500
31 Mar 2024Clermont Foot (A)3–01487+91500
15 Mar 2024Olympique Lyon (H)2–31478−61500
10 Mar 2024Le Havre (A)0–11484−41500
3 Mar 2024Nice (H)2–11488+51500
25 Feb 2024Lille (H)3–11483+81500
18 Feb 2024Monaco (A)2–11476+71500
11 Feb 2024Nantes (H)1–21469−61500
4 Feb 2024Stade de Reims (A)3–21475+61500
28 Jan 2024RC Lens (H)0–21469−81500
14 Jan 2024FC Metz (A)1–01477+61500
20 Dec 2023Monaco (H)1–21471−51500
17 Dec 2023Stade Rennais (H)0–01476−11500
10 Dec 2023Olympique Lyon (A)0–31476−81500
3 Dec 2023Lorient (H)1–11485−11500
26 Nov 2023Nice (A)0–11486−41500
12 Nov 2023Lille (A)1–11489+11500
5 Nov 2023Le Havre (H)1–21488−61500
29 Oct 2023Montpellier (A)0–31494−81500
22 Oct 2023Stade de Reims (H)1–11501−11500
8 Oct 2023Brest (A)1–11502+11500
1 Oct 2023FC Metz (H)3–01501+81500
24 Sep 2023RC Lens (A)1–21494−51500
17 Sep 2023Marseille (A)0–01498+11500
3 Sep 2023Clermont Foot (H)2–21497−11500
27 Aug 2023Strasbourg (A)0–21498−71500
19 Aug 2023PSG (H)1–11505−11500
13 Aug 2023Nantes (A)2–11506—1500

Team fingerprint

Six things that happened in the team's last 20 league matches in our database, next to how often they happened across the whole league over one year (the period is in the legend). The shape shows what happens to this team more or less often than across the league. It is not a rating and does not say what comes next.

Toulouse FCleague, last 12 months · n = 298

league · Wins: 225 of 596 (38%)league · Scores: 431 of 596 (72%)league · 3+ goals: 163 of 298 (55%)league · Both teams score: 158 of 298 (53%)league · Concedes: 431 of 596 (72%)league · Leads at half-time: 180 of 594 (30%)team · Wins: 6 of 20 (30%)team · Scores: 14 of 20 (70%)team · 3+ goals: 13 of 20 (65%)team · Both teams score: 12 of 20 (60%)team · Concedes: 17 of 20 (85%)team · Leads at half-time: 3 of 19 (16%)WinsScores3+ goalsBoth teamsscoreConcedesLeads athalf-time
Toulouse FCleague
Winswon the match30%6 of 2015–52%38%225 of 59634–42%
Scoresscored at least once70%14 of 2048–85%72%431 of 59669–76%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)65%13 of 2043–82%55%163 of 29849–60%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)60%12 of 2039–78%53%158 of 29847–59%
Concedesconceded at least once85%17 of 2064–95%72%431 of 59669–76%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)16%3 of 196–38%30%180 of 59427–34%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form

The team's recent results this season: wins, draws, losses, points per match and goals over the last 5 and up to 10 matches, home and away. What happened, not what comes next.

Last 5 matches n = 5

LDWDW
8points
1.60per match
2-2-1W-D-L
10scored
7conceded

Last 7 matches n = 7

LDLDWDW
9points
1.29per match
2-3-2W-D-L
12scored
11conceded

Home, last 5

Not enough data yet (3 of 5 matches needed).

Away, last 5

Not enough data yet (4 of 5 matches needed).

Streaks n = 7

Current and longest streaks in the sample: consecutive matches unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet, or with both teams scoring. A long streak says nothing about the next match.

4unbeaten · currentlongest in the sample: 4
4scoring · currentlongest in the sample: 4
1clean sheets · currentlongest in the sample: 1
0both teams scored · currentlongest in the sample: 3

Goals: home and away n = 7

How the team's matches usually end this season, split into home and away: how often both teams scored, how often there were 3 or more goals (2-1 yes, 1-1 no), how often it kept a clean sheet and how often it failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches (home = the league's home teams, away = the visitors).

matchesscored / matchconceded / matchboth scored3+ goalsclean sheetfailed to score
All matches71.71league 1.521.57league 1.5257%4 of 7 · league 65%71%5 of 7 · league 65%14%1 of 7 · league 21%29%2 of 7 · league 21%
Home31.00league 1.631.67league 1.4233%1 of 3 · league 65%33%1 of 3 · league 65%0%0 of 3 · league 23%67%2 of 3 · league 18%
Away42.25league 1.421.50league 1.6375%3 of 4 · league 65%100%4 of 4 · league 65%25%1 of 4 · league 18%0%0 of 4 · league 23%

Every team in the league: form, home, away, goals →

First half vs second half

Goals scored and conceded in the first half versus the second, from half-time scores. Shows in which part of the match the team has been more active or more exposed.

Not enough data yet (7 of 8 matches needed).

Goals by 15-minute interval · Late goals (after minute 75)

When the goals come: the match split into 15-minute slices, with goals scored and conceded in each. Stoppage time counts in the last slice.

Not available for this league (the free data source has no goal minutes).

Coaches n = 2

The team's coaches, with the dates they started and left according to Wikidata, and the league matches in our database played under each, with points per match. A match where the coach is not known (missing or conflicting data) counts for no one. The current coach is shown only when football-data.org names the same person.

CoachFromToMatchesPts per match
Jens Berthel Askou21 May 2026now71.29
Carles Martínez Novell1 Jul 202317 May 20261021.27
Whole period in our database13 Aug 202316 Oct 20261091.28

What coach changes show across all cases →

Last matches n = 7

The most recent matches played, with score and opponent, newest first.

16 Oct 2026AwayALe Mans FC3–0
10 Oct 2026AwayAAS Monaco FC2–2
19 Sep 2026HomeHLe Havre AC3–2
12 Sep 2026AwayAFC Lorient2–2
3 Sep 2026HomeHLille OSC0–1
29 Aug 2026AwayAStade Brestois 292–2
22 Aug 2026HomeHOlympique Lyonnais0–2

Next matches n = 5

The team's next scheduled matches, with kick-off time. The Stats button opens both teams' form, the head-to-head record and the probability of the main events.

HomeHES Troyes AC
AwayAOlympique de Marseille
HomeHRC Strasbourg Alsace
AwayARacing Club de Lens
HomeHStade Rennais FC 1901

kick-off (UTC)

The team's scorers · 2026-27 n = 6

The team's players who have scored in the league this season, from the official data source. Below: their goals next to the goals the team has scored in league matches; any difference is shown as it is (the source has no match events, so it does not say who scored the rest).

Playergoalsmatchespenaltiesassists
Casper Tengstedt5521
Jacen Russell-Rowe27——
Thomas Jørgensen27—1
Aron Dönnum14—1
Sion Oppong16——
Christ Tapé17——

The players in the list have 12 goals between them; the team has scored 12 in the league. “—” = the source gives no value.

All league top scorers →

Head-to-head n = 18

Opponents this team has met at least 3 times in our database; each link opens the full head-to-head page with every meeting.

Updated 25 Oct 2026