Toulouse FC – RC Strasbourg Alsace

Ligue 1 · Matchday 10 · 6 Nov 2026 19:45 UTC

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

43%1 · Toulouse≈ 1 in 2.32

24%X≈ 1 in 4.19

33%2 · Strasbourg≈ 1 in 3.02

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

As of today, the away side have scored in each of their last 6 matches. The away side travel roughly 740 km. The model estimates 43% for a home win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

Form, streaks, position and points are today's (25 Oct 2026), not the ones at kick-off: before this match the home side still have 2 league matches to play, the away side 2.

League position12 vs 14

Elo rating1509 vs 1539

Last 5LDWDW homeWDLLL away

Rest days5 vs 5

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 11% · 2–1: 9% · 1–2: 8%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	6%	11%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	9%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 53% vs 47%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Toulouse	Strasbourg	League
League position	12th of 18 · 9 pts	14th of 18 · 7 pts	—
Elo rating	1509	1539	—
Last 5	LDWDW	WDLLL	—
Points rate (last 10)	53%	47%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.6	2.0	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.3	2.1	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	40%	50%	52% · 40%
Both teams score (10)	6 of 10	9 of 10	54%
3+ goals in the match (10)	7 of 10	8 of 10	56%
Days of rest	5	5	—

Home side at home · visitors away n = 3 · 4

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 1.00 vs 2.00

	Toulouse at home	Strasbourg away
matches	3	4
scored / match	1.00league 1.63	2.00league 1.42
conceded / match	1.67league 1.42	2.50league 1.63
both scored	33%1 of 3 · league 65%	75%3 of 4 · league 65%
3+ goals	33%1 of 3 · league 65%	100%4 of 4 · league 65%
clean sheet	0%0 of 3 · league 23%	0%0 of 4 · league 18%
failed to score	67%2 of 3 · league 18%	25%1 of 4 · league 23%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 30% vs 40% · league 38%

ToulouseStrasbourgleague, year before the match · n = 272

	Toulouse	league	Strasbourg
Winswon the match	30%6 of 2015–52%	38%205 of 54434–42%	40%8 of 2022–61%
Scoresscored at least once	70%14 of 2048–85%	73%397 of 54469–77%	80%16 of 2058–92%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	65%13 of 2043–82%	56%151 of 27250–61%	75%15 of 2053–89%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	60%12 of 2039–78%	54%148 of 27248–60%	80%16 of 2058–92%
Concedesconceded at least once	85%17 of 2064–95%	73%397 of 54469–77%	90%18 of 2070–97%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	16%3 of 196–38%	31%168 of 54227–35%	35%7 of 2018–57%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 8 vs 4

Toulouse · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LDWDW

8pts

2-2-1W-D-L

10:7goals

Strasbourg · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WDLLL

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

10:10goals

Toulouse · Last 5 at home n = 5

DWLLW

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

7:8goals

Strasbourg · Last 5 away n = 5

WLWLL

6pts

2-0-3W-D-L

10:11goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 8 → 8 vs 10 → 4

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Toulouse	Strasbourg
Points (of 15)	8 → 8 =	10 → 4 ▼
Goals scored per match	1.2 → 2.0 ▲	2.0 → 2.0 =
Goals conceded per match	1.2 → 1.4 ▲	2.2 → 2.0 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1521 → 1519 easier opponents	1538 → 1565 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+12 (1509)	−5 (1539)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 5 vs 5

	Toulouse	Strasbourg
days since last match	5	5
matches in last 7 days	1	1
matches in last 14 days	2	2
position today	12 (9 pts)	14 (7 pts)
points off 1st	5	7
points off top 4	5	7
points above bottom 3	3	1
matches left (incl. this one)	25	25
coach (league matches led before)	Jens Berthel Askou since 21 May 2026 · 7 matches	Hugo Oliveira since 15 Jul 2026 · 7 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 740 km

Weather: the forecast appears 3 days before kick-off.

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Toulouse 2-1-2 (n = 5)

	home		away
3 May 2026	Strasbourg	1–2	Toulouse
6 Dec 2025	Toulouse	1–0	Strasbourg
16 Mar 2025	Strasbourg	2–1	Toulouse
12 Jan 2025	Toulouse	1–2	Strasbourg
7 Apr 2024	Toulouse	0–0	Strasbourg

All 6 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Toulouse FC · unbeaten: 4

		now	longest in our database
Toulouse FC	unbeaten	4	6
Toulouse FC	scoring	4	7
Toulouse FC	3+ goals	4	6
RC Strasbourg Alsace	winless	4	8
RC Strasbourg Alsace	scoring	6	16
RC Strasbourg Alsace	conceding	15	15
RC Strasbourg Alsace	both teams score	6	11
RC Strasbourg Alsace	3+ goals	3	7

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	6%	11%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	9%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	6%	11%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	9%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	4%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	6%	11%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	9%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%