RadarLigue 1 · Season simulator
Estimate based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining 241 matches, using the model's current team strengths. It does not account for transfers or future injuries.
2026-27 run 25 Oct 2026 07:17 · seed 1792912621
Each row is a team. We played out all remaining matches on a computer 10,000 times, with the model's current strengths; the percentages say in how many of those 10,000 simulated seasons the team finished 1st, in the top 4 and so on. “Expected pts” = average final points, “Mean pos.” = average final place.
| Team | Pts now | Exp. pts | Avg. pos | 1st | Top 4 | Top 6 | 16th | Bottom 3 | Finishing position distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC | 14 | 72.3 | 1.3 | 80%≈ 1 in 1.24 | 99%≈ 1 in 1.01 | 100%≈ 1 in 1.00 | 0% | 0% | |
| Olympique Lyonnais | 14 | 59.5 | 4.3 | 6%≈ 1 in 17.09 | 61%≈ 1 in 1.64 | 81%≈ 1 in 1.23 | <1% | <1% | |
| AS Monaco FC | 14 | 58.6 | 4.7 | 4%≈ 1 in 23.53 | 54%≈ 1 in 1.84 | 77%≈ 1 in 1.30 | 0% | 0% | |
| Racing Club de Lens | 13 | 58.1 | 4.8 | 4%≈ 1 in 26.18 | 51%≈ 1 in 1.95 | 76%≈ 1 in 1.32 | <1% | <1% | |
| Lille OSC | 14 | 57.1 | 5.3 | 3%≈ 1 in 35.71 | 43%≈ 1 in 2.30 | 69%≈ 1 in 1.45 | 0% | 0% | |
| Olympique de Marseille | 9 | 54.0 | 6.4 | 1%≈ 1 in 95.24 | 29%≈ 1 in 3.46 | 53%≈ 1 in 1.89 | <1% | <1% | |
| Paris FC | 14 | 53.1 | 7.0 | 1%≈ 1 in 132 | 22%≈ 1 in 4.56 | 45%≈ 1 in 2.22 | <1% | <1% | |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 | 13 | 53.3 | 7.0 | 1%≈ 1 in 135 | 22%≈ 1 in 4.46 | 46%≈ 1 in 2.20 | <1% | <1% | |
| FC Lorient | 11 | 47.5 | 9.5 | <1% | 6%≈ 1 in 17.36 | 16%≈ 1 in 6.26 | 1%≈ 1 in 133 | 1%≈ 1 in 112 | |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace | 7 | 47.8 | 9.3 | <1% | 7%≈ 1 in 15.29 | 18%≈ 1 in 5.60 | 1%≈ 1 in 125 | 1%≈ 1 in 91.74 | |
| Toulouse FC | 9 | 46.7 | 9.8 | <1% | 5%≈ 1 in 20.92 | 14%≈ 1 in 7.07 | 1%≈ 1 in 101 | 1%≈ 1 in 74.63 | |
| Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 39.6 | 12.7 | 0% | <1% | 2%≈ 1 in 61.73 | 7%≈ 1 in 14.75 | 10%≈ 1 in 9.78 | |
| OGC Nice | 11 | 40.7 | 12.4 | 0% | <1% | 2%≈ 1 in 42.74 | 6%≈ 1 in 17.79 | 8%≈ 1 in 12.17 | |
| AJ Auxerre | 9 | 39.2 | 13.0 | 0% | <1% | 1%≈ 1 in 72.99 | 8%≈ 1 in 12.66 | 13%≈ 1 in 7.84 | |
| Le Mans FC (s) | 6 | 37.1 | 13.7 | 0% | <1% | 1%≈ 1 in 164 | 12%≈ 1 in 8.69 | 20%≈ 1 in 5.04 | |
| Angers SCO | 7 | 28.9 | 16.2 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 27%≈ 1 in 3.67 | 75%≈ 1 in 1.34 | |
| Le Havre AC | 2 | 27.1 | 16.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 23%≈ 1 in 4.41 | 82%≈ 1 in 1.23 | |
| ES Troyes AC (s) | 4 | 25.3 | 17.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16%≈ 1 in 6.44 | 89%≈ 1 in 1.12 |
(s) = short history: fewer than 8 matches in the model window, strengths shrunk toward the league average. Ties inside a simulation are broken by points, goal difference, goals scored, then at random. How good is the model?
European places 2027/28 run 25 Oct 2026 07:17
Which place in next season's European competitions the final league position gives, according to UEFA's access list (still provisional). The percentage says in how many of the 10,000 simulated seasons the team finished in a position that gives that place; “any European competition” adds them up. Two routes we cannot know yet are left out: the national cup winner (if it has already qualified through the league, its place passes to the next team in the table) and the two extra Champions League places for the two best countries in the current European season (EPS). Where the Champions League places are simply the top of the table, the column matches the one in the table above.
| Team | Champions Leagueleague phase · places 1–3 | Champions Leaguequalifying round 3 · 4th place | Europa Leagueleague phase · 5th place | Conference Leagueplay-off · 6th place | Any European competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSG | 97%≈ 1 in 1.03 | 2%≈ 1 in 62.11 | 1%≈ 1 in 116 | <1% | 100%≈ 1 in 1.00 |
| Olympique Lyon | 46%≈ 1 in 2.18 | 15%≈ 1 in 6.66 | 12%≈ 1 in 8.67 | 9%≈ 1 in 11.03 | 81%≈ 1 in 1.23 |
| Monaco | 39%≈ 1 in 2.56 | 15%≈ 1 in 6.57 | 12%≈ 1 in 8.06 | 10%≈ 1 in 10.00 | 77%≈ 1 in 1.30 |
| RC Lens | 36%≈ 1 in 2.74 | 15%≈ 1 in 6.69 | 13%≈ 1 in 7.55 | 11%≈ 1 in 9.09 | 76%≈ 1 in 1.32 |
| Lille | 30%≈ 1 in 3.38 | 14%≈ 1 in 7.19 | 13%≈ 1 in 7.52 | 12%≈ 1 in 8.13 | 69%≈ 1 in 1.45 |
| Marseille | 18%≈ 1 in 5.63 | 11%≈ 1 in 8.99 | 12%≈ 1 in 8.35 | 12%≈ 1 in 8.31 | 53%≈ 1 in 1.89 |
| Paris FC | 13%≈ 1 in 7.92 | 9%≈ 1 in 10.76 | 11%≈ 1 in 9.17 | 12%≈ 1 in 8.18 | 45%≈ 1 in 2.22 |
| Stade Rennais | 13%≈ 1 in 7.69 | 9%≈ 1 in 10.63 | 11%≈ 1 in 8.89 | 12%≈ 1 in 8.44 | 46%≈ 1 in 2.20 |
| Lorient | 3%≈ 1 in 33.56 | 3%≈ 1 in 35.97 | 4%≈ 1 in 23.87 | 6%≈ 1 in 16.58 | 16%≈ 1 in 6.26 |
| Strasbourg | 3%≈ 1 in 31.55 | 3%≈ 1 in 29.67 | 5%≈ 1 in 21.69 | 7%≈ 1 in 14.93 | 18%≈ 1 in 5.60 |
| Toulouse | 2%≈ 1 in 46.08 | 3%≈ 1 in 38.31 | 4%≈ 1 in 25.64 | 5%≈ 1 in 18.28 | 14%≈ 1 in 7.07 |
| Brest | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1%≈ 1 in 125 | 2%≈ 1 in 61.73 |
| Nice | <1% | <1% | 1%≈ 1 in 128 | 1%≈ 1 in 84.03 | 2%≈ 1 in 42.74 |
| Auxerre | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1%≈ 1 in 130 | 1%≈ 1 in 72.99 |
| Le Mans | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1%≈ 1 in 164 |
| Angers SCO | 0% | 0% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Le Havre | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Troyes | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Source: UEFA circular letter No 54/2026 of 9 Sep 2026, access list for the 2027/28 season — provisional; the final version comes before the end of the current European season. The association is ranked 5th in UEFA's country coefficients (five-season association coefficients at the end of the 2025/26 season, i.e. 2021/22–2025/26). The national cup winner gets a place in the Europa League (league phase); if it has already qualified through the league, its place passes to the next team in the table (Europa League regulations, Article 3). Not included: the two extra Champions League places (EPS) for the two best countries in the current European season, known only at its end.
What the next matches change 25 Oct 2026 – 1 Nov 2026 · n = 16
What changes with the result: for every match in the coming days, each team's chances (of 1st place, the top 4 or 6, the bottom 3) if the match ends 1 = home win, X = draw, 2 = away win, next to “now”. The figures come from the same 10,000 simulations, split by that match's result; we show the target the result matters most for. “Impact” = by how many percentage points the two teams' chances can move in total; matches are ordered by it.
| Match | Team | Target | now | if 1 | if X | if 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco – Lille25 Oct 2026 14:00 · impact 76 pp | Monaco | top 4 | 54% | 64% | 52% | 44% |
| Lille | top 4 | 43% | 35% | 44% | 54% | |
| Paris FC – Monaco1 Nov 2026 16:15 · impact 74 pp | Paris FC | top 6 | 45% | 55% | 42% | 36% |
| Monaco | top 4 | 54% | 46% | 52% | 66% | |
| Lille – RC Lens30 Oct 2026 20:05 · impact 72 pp | Lille | top 4 | 43% | 52% | 41% | 34% |
| RC Lens | top 4 | 51% | 43% | 52% | 62% | |
| Marseille – Toulouse1 Nov 2026 19:45 · impact 54 pp | Marseille | top 6 | 53% | 59% | 49% | 41% |
| Toulouse | top 6 | 14% | 10% | 15% | 23% | |
| PSG – Olympique Lyon26 Oct 2026 19:30 · impact 54 pp | PSG | 1st place | 80% | 86% | 78% | 69% |
| Olympique Lyon | top 4 | 61% | 56% | 62% | 72% | |
| Stade Rennais – Strasbourg25 Oct 2026 16:15 · impact 51 pp | Stade Rennais | top 6 | 46% | 54% | 41% | 36% |
| Strasbourg | top 6 | 18% | 14% | 17% | 25% | |
| Olympique Lyon – Angers SCO31 Oct 2026 19:45 · impact 48 pp | Olympique Lyon | top 4 | 61% | 65% | 52% | 49% |
| Angers SCO | bottom 3 | 75% | 77% | 72% | 62% | |
| Marseille – Le Havre25 Oct 2026 16:15 · impact 47 pp | Marseille | top 6 | 53% | 57% | 46% | 40% |
| Le Havre | bottom 3 | 82% | 84% | 80% | 72% | |
| Nice – Stade Rennais31 Oct 2026 16:15 · impact 43 pp | Nice | bottom 3 | 8% | 4% | 8% | 11% |
| Stade Rennais | top 6 | 46% | 37% | 43% | 53% | |
| Troyes – Le Mans31 Oct 2026 19:45 · impact 37 pp | Troyes | bottom 3 | 89% | 83% | 90% | 93% |
| Le Mans | bottom 3 | 20% | 27% | 22% | 13% | |
| Auxerre – Le Mans25 Oct 2026 16:15 · impact 35 pp | Auxerre | bottom 3 | 13% | 8% | 13% | 19% |
| Le Mans | bottom 3 | 20% | 25% | 20% | 13% | |
| Angers SCO – Lorient25 Oct 2026 16:15 · impact 34 pp | Angers SCO | bottom 3 | 75% | 65% | 75% | 80% |
| Lorient | top 6 | 16% | 11% | 14% | 20% | |
| Toulouse – Troyes25 Oct 2026 16:15 · impact 33 pp | Toulouse | top 6 | 14% | 17% | 10% | 7% |
| Troyes | bottom 3 | 89% | 91% | 88% | 81% | |
| Strasbourg – Auxerre1 Nov 2026 14:00 · impact 33 pp | Strasbourg | top 6 | 18% | 22% | 14% | 11% |
| Auxerre | bottom 3 | 13% | 16% | 10% | 8% | |
| Le Havre – PSG30 Oct 2026 18:00 · impact 30 pp | Le Havre | bottom 3 | 82% | 71% | 80% | 84% |
| PSG | 1st place | 80% | 72% | 75% | 84% | |
| Lorient – Brest31 Oct 2026 19:45 · impact 28 pp | Lorient | top 6 | 16% | 20% | 14% | 10% |
| Brest | bottom 3 | 10% | 13% | 10% | 6% |
The round in scenarios
You choose the results of the coming matches (1 = home win, X = draw, 2 = away win), or choose nothing. The table shows the standings on points if that happens (goal difference stays as it is now, since there are no scores) and, out of the 10,000 simulations, only those in which your scenario occurred: in how many each team finished 1st, in the top 4 or 6, in the bottom 3. Nothing is pre-selected and nothing is a recommendation.
…
How the chances moved n = 8
Title chances of the top 6 teams at the latest runs. Runs happen daily, not only after rounds: between two runs with the same matches played, differences of 1–2 pp are simulation noise, not the effect of results.
| run | Matches played | PSG | Olympique Lyon | Monaco | RC Lens | Lille | Marseille |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct 2026 07:17 | 65 | 80% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 1% |
| 25 Oct 2026 06:17 | 65 | 81% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 1% |
| 25 Oct 2026 06:05 | 65 | 80% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 1% |
| 25 Oct 2026 05:17 | 65 | 80% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 1% |
| 25 Oct 2026 04:17 | 65 | 81% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 1% |
| 25 Oct 2026 03:17 | 65 | 81% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 1% |
| 25 Oct 2026 02:17 | 65 | 80% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 1% |
| 25 Oct 2026 01:17 | 65 | 81% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 1% |
Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:17