RadarElo grid
The round's matches, from the biggest Elo gap to the most even, in boxes. Pick the condition: green = it happened, red = it did not, grey = not played yet.
The round
Every match of the round in the leagues we follow, ordered by the Elo gap before the round (home rating + home advantage − away rating): the first box holds the most lopsided matches, the last one the most even. One to two hours before the first match the order is frozen (❄) and no longer changes. Pick a condition: green = it happened, red = it did not, grey = not played yet. Under every box: how often it came out all green (every match in the box) this season and in past seasons, and how often it had at least one red — only rounds with the box fully played.
❄ Frozen — the order no longer changes.
P1, P2… = the match's place in the round's order: P1 has the biggest Elo gap. “History” = how often the chosen condition happened in the same place in the rounds before — the match in that place changes from round to round; matches not played yet are not counted. A share from few matches can still move a lot.
All positions, in the rounds before: 54% (183 of 336)
Elo gap 291 … 191
All green: 3 of 8 rounds this season · 27 of 140 in past seasons. At least one red: 5 · 113.
2 without a result
- Inter – Fiorentina25.10+291 · Serie AP1 · history 85% (11 of 13)
- Arsenal – Everton2-0+255 · Premier LeagueP2 · history 91% (10 of 11)
- Marseille – Le Havre25.10+214 · Ligue 1P3 · history 70% (7 of 10)
- Stuttgart – M'gladbach2-3+207 · BundesligaP4 · history 78% (7 of 9)
- Como 1907 – Sassuolo2-0+197 · Serie AP5 · history 75% (6 of 8)
- Lazio – Parma2-1+191 · Serie AP6 · history 88% (7 of 8)
Elo gap 190 … 153
All green: 0 of 7 rounds this season · 4 of 125 in past seasons. At least one red: 7 · 121.
3 without a result
- Freiburg – Bayern25.10−190 · BundesligaP7 · history 63% (5 of 8)
- Atleti – Deportivo1-0+190 · La LigaP8 · history 63% (5 of 8)
- PSG – Olympique Lyon26.10+182 · Ligue 1P9 · history 43% (3 of 7)
- Dortmund – Frankfurt1-0+182 · BundesligaP10 · history 86% (6 of 7)
- Atalanta – Frosinone25.10+177 · Serie AP11 · history 43% (3 of 7)
- Chelsea – Tottenham0-2+153 · Premier LeagueP12 · history 86% (6 of 7)
Elo gap 153 … 101
All green: 0 of 7 rounds this season · 3 of 115 in past seasons. At least one red: 7 · 112.
3 without a result
- Torino – Monza3-2+153 · Serie AP13 · history 57% (4 of 7)
- Lecce – Juventus25.10−143 · Serie AP14 · history 71% (5 of 7)
- RB Leipzig – Elversberg4-0+131 · BundesligaP15 · history 71% (5 of 7)
- RC Lens – Paris FC2-1+112 · Ligue 1P16 · history 43% (3 of 7)
- Udinese – Milan25.10−107 · Serie AP17 · history 43% (3 of 7)
- Athletic – Getafe25.10+101 · La LigaP18 · history 43% (3 of 7)
Elo gap 101 … 89
All green: 0 of 7 rounds this season · 0 of 105 in past seasons. At least one red: 7 · 105.
3 without a result
- Barça – Real Madrid25.10+101 · La LigaP19 · history 43% (3 of 7)
- Liverpool – Brighton Hove25.10+100 · Premier LeagueP20 · history 29% (2 of 7)
- Mainz – Bremen2-3+100 · BundesligaP21 · history 57% (4 of 7)
- Augsburg – Union Berlin1-1+99 · BundesligaP22 · history 43% (3 of 7)
- Aston Villa – Man City2-1−97 · Premier LeagueP23 · history 71% (5 of 7)
- Toulouse – Troyes25.10+89 · Ligue 1P24 · history 14% (1 of 7)
Elo gap 89 … 66
All green: 0 of 7 rounds this season · 1 of 99 in past seasons. At least one red: 7 · 98.
4 without a result
- Hoffenheim – Leverkusen25.10−89 · BundesligaP25 · history 29% (2 of 7)
- Genoa – Venezia FC25.10+86 · Serie AP26 · history 71% (5 of 7)
- Real Sociedad – Levante25.10+74 · La LigaP27 · history 43% (3 of 7)
- Rayo Vallecano – Elche0-3+72 · La LigaP28 · history 57% (4 of 7)
- SC Paderborn – HSV1-0+66 · BundesligaP29 · history 43% (3 of 7)
- Stade Rennais – Strasbourg25.10+66 · Ligue 1P30 · history 43% (3 of 7)
Elo gap 66 … 45
All green: 0 of 6 rounds this season · 2 of 96 in past seasons. At least one red: 6 · 94.
2 without a result
- Santander – Espanyol2-1+66 · La LigaP31 · history 43% (3 of 7)
- Man United – Bournemouth25.10+65 · Premier LeagueP32 · history 57% (4 of 7)
- Brest – Nice1-2+59 · Ligue 1P33 · history 29% (2 of 7)
- Valencia – Villarreal1-2−55 · La LigaP34 · history 57% (4 of 7)
- Alavés – Málaga1-1+50 · La LigaP35 · history 50% (3 of 6)
- Sevilla FC – Osasuna26.10+45 · La LigaP36 · history 50% (3 of 6)
Elo gap 44 … 24
All green: 0 of 5 rounds this season · 0 of 81 in past seasons. At least one red: 5 · 81.
2 without a result
- Coventry City – Fulham0-1+44 · Premier LeagueP37 · history 50% (3 of 6)
- Ipswich Town – Nottingham1-1−44 · Premier LeagueP38 · history 50% (3 of 6)
- Monaco – Lille25.10+43 · Ligue 1P39 · history 50% (3 of 6)
- Auxerre – Le Mans25.10+35 · Ligue 1P40 · history 60% (3 of 5)
- Cagliari – Bologna0-2−33 · Serie AP41 · history 33% (2 of 6)
- Napoli – Roma3-3+24 · Serie AP42 · history 50% (3 of 6)
Elo gap 22 … 4
All green: 0 of 4 rounds this season · 0 of 46 in past seasons. At least one red: 4 · 46.
5 without a result
- Hull City – Brentford25.10+22 · Premier LeagueP43 · history 33% (2 of 6)
- 1. FC Köln – Schalke0-0−21 · BundesligaP44 · history 50% (3 of 6)
- Sunderland – Leeds United25.10+18 · Premier LeagueP45 · history 33% (2 of 6)
- Crystal Palace – Newcastle25.10+16 · Premier LeagueP46 · history 20% (1 of 5)
- Celta – Real Betis25.10−9 · La LigaP47 · history 20% (1 of 5)
- Angers SCO – Lorient25.10−4 · Ligue 1P48 · history 25% (1 of 4)
Chosen condition: The Elo favourite wins
Positions picked from the earlier rounds (by the lower end of the 95% interval): P1, P2, P4, P6, P10, P12
For the chosen condition, the best 3, 6, 9 or 12 positions in the round, by their history in the rounds before (ranked cautiously: a “5 of 5” weighs less than “40 of 50”). Below, the record of the same rule applied round by round, against all positions: it shows whether the pick helped or not.
Checked over 11 rounds: 72% (39 of 54) · all positions: 54% (174 of 322) · fully came true: 1 of 11 · ✓ above the round average, even in the cautious reading
- Inter – Fiorentina25.10+291 · Serie AThe Elo favourite winsP1 · history 85% (11 of 13)
- Arsenal – Everton2-0+255 · Premier LeagueThe Elo favourite winsP2 · history 91% (10 of 11)
- Stuttgart – M'gladbach2-3+207 · BundesligaThe Elo favourite winsP4 · history 78% (7 of 9)
- Lazio – Parma2-1+191 · Serie AThe Elo favourite winsP6 · history 88% (7 of 8)
- Dortmund – Frankfurt1-0+182 · BundesligaThe Elo favourite winsP10 · history 86% (6 of 7)
- Chelsea – Tottenham0-2+153 · Premier LeagueThe Elo favourite winsP12 · history 86% (6 of 7)
Which box comes up most often
For the chosen condition: how often it happened in each box (1 = the most lopsided), added up over every round with results. Next to the percentage: out of how many matches, and the 95% interval; with few rounds, gaps between boxes can be pure chance.
| Box | It happened | Share | 95% interval | Rounds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box 1 · highest share | 51 of 63 | 81% | 70–89% | 14 |
| Box 2 | 30 of 47 | 64% | 50–76% | 9 |
| Box 3 | 26 of 45 | 58% | 43–71% | 8 |
| Box 4 | 18 of 45 | 40% | 27–55% | 8 |
| Box 5 | 21 of 44 | 48% | 34–62% | 8 |
| Box 6 | 21 of 44 | 48% | 34–62% | 8 |
| Box 7 | 18 of 39 | 46% | 32–61% | 7 |
| Box 8 | 10 of 33 | 30% | 17–47% | 7 |
We checked whether a European match played up to 3 days earlier changes anything: the Elo favourite won 57% of the matches after one (n = 273), against 58% after a week without a match (n = 785); the gap against what Elo expected: 0.00 (95% interval −0.05 … +0.05), in the 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25 seasons. No visible effect ⇒ the grid is not adjusted for cup matches.
The best position, for every condition
For every condition: the box (position in the grid) that came up most often, at every box size — only boxes with at least 20 played matches. The last column is the fair check of the combinations of 3, 6, 9 and 12 matches (the best positions picked ONLY from the earlier rounds), against all positions of those rounds: ✓ = above average even in the cautious reading, ~ = above average but still within noise, ✗ = below average. Checking so many positions, some look good by chance: only what also passes the check counts.
| Condition | boxes of 3 | boxes of 6 | boxes of 9 | boxes of 12 | The combinations of 3 / 6 / 9 / 12, checked on the following rounds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Elo favourite wins | P129 of 35 · 83% | P151 of 63 · 81% | P165 of 87 · 75% | P181 of 110 · 74% | 3: 83% ✓ 6: 72% ✓ 9: 73% ✓ 12: 69% ✓all positions: 54% · 11 rounds |
| 1 · home win | P127 of 35 · 77% | P145 of 63 · 71% | P155 of 87 · 63% | P167 of 110 · 61% | 3: 69% ✓ 6: 58% ~ 9: 59% ✓ 12: 55% ~all positions: 46% · 11 rounds |
| X · draw | P88 of 23 · 35% | P812 of 33 · 36% | P320 of 66 · 30% | P423 of 72 · 32% | 3: 21% ✗ 6: 25% ~ 9: 25% ~ 12: 22% ✗all positions: 23% · 11 rounds |
| 2 · away win | P610 of 22 · 45% | P320 of 45 · 44% | P227 of 68 · 40% | P235 of 90 · 39% | 3: 36% ~ 6: 35% ~ 9: 34% ~ 12: 30% ✗all positions: 31% · 11 rounds |
| Home team scores | P1220 of 21 · 95% | P440 of 45 · 89% | P358 of 66 · 88% | P374 of 88 · 84% | 3: 69% ✗ 6: 74% ✗ 9: 80% ✗ 12: 81% ~all positions: 80% · 11 rounds |
| Away team scores | P820 of 23 · 87% | P439 of 45 · 87% | P550 of 58 · 86% | P458 of 72 · 81% | 3: 66% ✗ 6: 69% ✗ 9: 68% ✗ 12: 70% ✗all positions: 75% · 11 rounds |
| 2+ goals | P721 of 22 · 95% | P439 of 45 · 87% | P357 of 66 · 86% | P372 of 88 · 82% | 3: 72% ✗ 6: 75% ✗ 9: 79% ✗ 12: 78% ✗all positions: 80% · 11 rounds |
| 3+ goals | P718 of 22 · 82% | P144 of 63 · 70% | P444 of 67 · 66% | P357 of 88 · 65% | 3: 66% ~ 6: 65% ~ 9: 61% ✗ 12: 61% ✗all positions: 61% · 11 rounds |
| At most 2 goals | P413 of 23 · 57% | P224 of 47 · 51% | P232 of 68 · 47% | P435 of 72 · 49% | 3: 29% ✗ 6: 35% ✗ 9: 36% ✗ 12: 38% ✗all positions: 39% · 11 rounds |
| Both teams score | P718 of 22 · 82% | P435 of 45 · 78% | P350 of 66 · 76% | P358 of 88 · 66% | 3: 54% ✗ 6: 64% ~ 9: 64% ~ 12: 64% ~all positions: 61% · 11 rounds |
| 1st half: 1+ goal | P130 of 35 · 86% | P147 of 63 · 75% | P449 of 67 · 73% | P364 of 88 · 73% | 3: 70% ~ 6: 71% ~ 9: 72% ~ 12: 68% ✗all positions: 69% · 11 rounds |
| 1st half: 2+ goals | P1013 of 23 · 57% | P521 of 44 · 48% | P429 of 67 · 43% | P337 of 88 · 42% | 3: 48% ~ 6: 40% ~ 9: 42% ~ 12: 41% ~all positions: 39% · 11 rounds |
| 2nd half: 1+ goal | P822 of 23 · 96% | P442 of 45 · 93% | P361 of 66 · 92% | P281 of 90 · 90% | 3: 83% ✗ 6: 81% ✗ 9: 86% ~ 12: 85% ✗all positions: 86% · 11 rounds |
| Both halves: 1+ goal | P127 of 35 · 77% | P141 of 63 · 65% | P343 of 66 · 65% | P353 of 88 · 60% | 3: 64% ~ 6: 56% ✗ 9: 59% ✗ 12: 58% ✗all positions: 61% · 11 rounds |
| Draw or 3+ goals | P720 of 22 · 91% | P538 of 44 · 86% | P356 of 66 · 85% | P371 of 88 · 81% | 3: 72% ✗ 6: 70% ✗ 9: 74% ✗ 12: 77% ~all positions: 77% · 11 rounds |
| Draw or 4+ goals | P913 of 21 · 62% | P822 of 33 · 67% | P338 of 66 · 58% | P441 of 72 · 57% | 3: 54% ✗ 6: 54% ✗ 9: 50% ✗ 12: 49% ✗all positions: 55% · 11 rounds |
Updated 2026-10-25 07:20 UTC