Sunderland AFC – Leeds United FC

Premier League · Matchday 8 · 25 Oct 2026 16:30 UTC

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

31%1 · Sunderland≈ 1 in 3.21

31%X≈ 1 in 3.22

38%2 · Leeds United≈ 1 in 2.64

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side are winless in their last 5 matches. The away side are 4 points above the bottom three with 31 matches left. The model estimates 38% for an away win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

League position20 vs 8

Elo rating1486 vs 1518

Last 5DLLLL homeDWDLD away

Rest days7 vs 7

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 15% · 0–0: 12% · 0–1: 11%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	12%	11%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	15%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 37% vs 47%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Sunderland	Leeds United	League
League position	20th of 20 · 4 pts	8th of 20 · 10 pts	—
Elo rating	1486	1518	—
Last 5	DLLLL	DWDLD	—
Points rate (last 10)	37%	47%	45%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.1	1.1	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.6	1.0	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	33%	40%	50% · 40%
Both teams score (10)	5 of 10	6 of 10	56%
3+ goals in the match (10)	4 of 10	3 of 10	55%
Days of rest	7	7	—

Goals and the first half

For each condition: the chance estimated by the model (calibrated on past seasons, the same as in the filters and the Arena), how often it happened in the teams' last 10 matches and how often across the whole league over the last 12 months. “Both teams score” = each team scores at least once (1–1 counts, 2–0 does not). “Draw or 3+ goals” = the match ends level OR has at least 3 goals (1–1 and 2–1 count, 1–0 does not); for “draw or 4+”, 2–2 and 3–1 count, 2–1 does not.

3+ goals: model 46%

Condition	Model	The teams' last 10	League, 12 months
Both teams score	53%≈ 1 in 1.90	55%11 of 20	56%
2+ goals	73%≈ 1 in 1.38	75%15 of 20	79%
3+ goals	46%≈ 1 in 2.16	35%7 of 20	55%
At most 2 goals	54%≈ 1 in 1.86	65%13 of 20	45%
Home team scores	68%≈ 1 in 1.47	60%6 of 10	76%
Away team scores	72%≈ 1 in 1.39	80%8 of 10	73%
1st half: 1+ goal	67%≈ 1 in 1.50	45%9 of 20	70%
1st half: 2+ goals	28%≈ 1 in 3.58	15%3 of 20	35%
Draw or 3+ goals	68%≈ 1 in 1.47	70%14 of 20	74%
Draw or 4+ goals	45%≈ 1 in 2.20	50%10 of 20	50%

“Last 10”: each team's league matches, home or away (for “home / away team scores”, only that team's). Tap a condition to see every upcoming match where it happened often.

Home side at home · visitors away n = 3 · 3

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 0.33 vs 1.00

	Sunderland at home	Leeds United away
matches	3	3
scored / match	0.33league 1.57	1.00league 1.27
conceded / match	1.33league 1.27	1.00league 1.57
both scored	0%0 of 3 · league 52%	67%2 of 3 · league 52%
3+ goals	0%0 of 3 · league 52%	33%1 of 3 · league 52%
clean sheet	33%1 of 3 · league 25%	33%1 of 3 · league 29%
failed to score	67%2 of 3 · league 29%	0%0 of 3 · league 25%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 30% vs 30% · league 36%

SunderlandLeeds Unitedleague, year before the match · n = 372

	Sunderland	league	Leeds United
Winswon the match	30%6 of 2015–52%	36%266 of 74432–39%	30%6 of 2015–52%
Scoresscored at least once	65%13 of 2043–82%	74%554 of 74471–77%	70%14 of 2048–85%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	40%8 of 2022–61%	55%203 of 37249–60%	40%8 of 2022–61%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	50%10 of 2030–70%	56%208 of 37251–61%	55%11 of 2034–74%
Concedesconceded at least once	80%16 of 2058–92%	74%554 of 74471–77%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	15%3 of 205–36%	30%224 of 74427–33%	30%6 of 2015–52%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 1 vs 6

Sunderland · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DLLLL

1pts

0-1-4W-D-L

4:12goals

Leeds United · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DWDLD

6pts

1-3-1W-D-L

7:5goals

Sunderland · Last 5 at home n = 5

DWWLL

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

3:5goals

Leeds United · Last 5 away n = 5

DLWDL

5pts

1-2-2W-D-L

4:7goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 10 → 1 vs 8 → 6

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Sunderland	Leeds United
Points (of 15)	10 → 1 ▼	8 → 6 ▼
Goals scored per match	1.4 → 0.8 ▼	0.8 → 1.4 ▲
Goals conceded per match	0.8 → 2.4 ▲	1.0 → 1.0 =
Average Elo of the opponents	1505 → 1607 tougher opponents	1502 → 1567 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−19 (1486)	+6 (1518)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 7 vs 7

	Sunderland	Leeds United
days since last match	7	7
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	1	1
position today	20 (4 pts)	8 (10 pts)
points off 1st	17	11
points off top 4	9	3
points above bottom 3	bottom 3 · 2 off 17th	4
matches left (incl. this one)	31	31
simulator impact	37 pp	37 pp
coach (league matches led before)	Régis Le Bris since 1 Jul 2024 · 45 matches	Daniel Farke since 4 Jul 2023 · 45 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 130 km
weather at kick-off	10 °C · 0.0 mm · 37 km/h	forecast from 25 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Sunderland 1-1-0 (n = 2)

	home		away
3 Mar 2026	Leeds United	0–1	Sunderland
28 Dec 2025	Sunderland	1–1	Leeds United

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Sunderland AFC · winless: 5

		now	longest in our database
Sunderland AFC	winless	5	5
Sunderland AFC	conceding	5	7
Leeds United FC	winless	3	6

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	12%	11%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	15%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	12%	11%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	15%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	12%	11%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	15%	8%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%