US Lecce – Juventus FC

Serie A · Matchday 8 · 25 Oct 2026 17:00 UTC

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

14%1 · Lecce≈ 1 in 7.10

25%X≈ 1 in 4.01

61%2 · Juventus≈ 1 in 1.64

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side took 6 points from their last 5 matches, the away side 5 from their last 5. The away side travel roughly 1010 km. The model estimates 61% for an away win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

League position12 vs 10

Elo rating1422 vs 1615

Last 5LWLLW homeDLWDL away

Rest days7 vs 6

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

0–1: 17% · 0–2: 14% · 0–0: 11%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	17%	14%	7%	3%	1%	<1%
1	6%	11%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	2%	3%	3%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 50% vs 50%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Lecce	Juventus	League
League position	12th of 20 · 9 pts	10th of 20 · 11 pts	—
Elo rating	1422	1615	—
Last 5	LWLLW	DLWDL	—
Points rate (last 10)	50%	50%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.3	1.2	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.5	1.2	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	43%	53%	49% · 44%
Both teams score (10)	3 of 10	4 of 10	48%
3+ goals in the match (10)	6 of 10	3 of 10	50%
Days of rest	7	6	—

Goals and the first half

For each condition: the chance estimated by the model (calibrated on past seasons, the same as in the filters and the Arena), how often it happened in the teams' last 10 matches and how often across the whole league over the last 12 months. “Both teams score” = each team scores at least once (1–1 counts, 2–0 does not). “Draw or 3+ goals” = the match ends level OR has at least 3 goals (1–1 and 2–1 count, 1–0 does not); for “draw or 4+”, 2–2 and 3–1 count, 2–1 does not.

3+ goals: model 46%

Condition	Model	The teams' last 10	League, 12 months
Both teams score	48%≈ 1 in 2.07	37%7 of 19	48%
2+ goals	72%≈ 1 in 1.39	79%15 of 19	74%
3+ goals	46%≈ 1 in 2.18	47%9 of 19	50%
At most 2 goals	54%≈ 1 in 1.85	53%10 of 19	50%
Home team scores	50%≈ 1 in 1.99	60%6 of 10	71%
Away team scores	80%≈ 1 in 1.25	80%8 of 10	69%
1st half: 1+ goal	66%≈ 1 in 1.51	79%15 of 19	66%
1st half: 2+ goals	27%≈ 1 in 3.66	21%4 of 19	30%
Draw or 3+ goals	66%≈ 1 in 1.52	58%11 of 19	66%
Draw or 4+ goals	42%≈ 1 in 2.37	37%7 of 19	40%

“Last 10”: each team's league matches, home or away (for “home / away team scores”, only that team's). Tap a condition to see every upcoming match where it happened often.

Home side at home · visitors away n = 3 · 3

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 1.33 vs 1.33

	Lecce at home	Juventus away
matches	3	3
scored / match	1.33league 1.59	1.33league 1.41
conceded / match	2.67league 1.41	1.33league 1.59
both scored	67%2 of 3 · league 57%	67%2 of 3 · league 57%
3+ goals	100%3 of 3 · league 60%	33%1 of 3 · league 60%
clean sheet	0%0 of 3 · league 23%	33%1 of 3 · league 21%
failed to score	33%1 of 3 · league 21%	0%0 of 3 · league 23%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 35% vs 45% · league 39%

LecceJuventusleague, year before the match · n = 381

	Lecce	league	Juventus
Winswon the match	35%7 of 2018–57%	39%294 of 76235–42%	45%9 of 2026–66%
Scoresscored at least once	55%11 of 2034–74%	70%536 of 76267–73%	80%16 of 2058–92%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	55%11 of 2034–74%	50%190 of 38145–55%	25%5 of 2011–47%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	40%8 of 2022–61%	48%181 of 38143–53%	35%7 of 2018–57%
Concedesconceded at least once	80%16 of 2058–92%	70%536 of 76267–73%	50%10 of 2030–70%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	30%6 of 2015–52%	28%216 of 76225–32%	40%8 of 2022–61%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 6 vs 5

Lecce · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LWLLW

6pts

2-0-3W-D-L

7:8goals

Juventus · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DLWDL

5pts

1-2-2W-D-L

6:8goals

Lecce · Last 5 at home n = 5

LWLWL

6pts

2-0-3W-D-L

5:9goals

Juventus · Last 5 away n = 5

WDWLD

8pts

2-2-1W-D-L

7:6goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 9 → 6 vs 10 → 5

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Lecce	Juventus
Points (of 15)	9 → 6 ▼	10 → 5 ▼
Goals scored per match	1.2 → 1.4 ▲	1.2 → 1.2 =
Goals conceded per match	1.4 → 1.6 ▲	0.8 → 1.6 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1530 → 1484 easier opponents	1459 → 1540 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+4 (1422)	−15 (1615)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 7 vs 6

	Lecce	Juventus
days since last match	7	6
matches in last 7 days	0	1
matches in last 14 days	1	2
position today	12 (9 pts)	10 (11 pts)
points off 1st	13	11
points off top 4	8	6
points above bottom 3	5	7
matches left (incl. this one)	31	31
simulator impact	46 pp	46 pp
coach (league matches led before)	Eusebio Di Francesco since 26 Jun 2025 · 45 matches	Luciano Spalletti since 30 Oct 2025 · 36 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 1010 km
weather at kick-off	16 °C · 0.0 mm · 16 km/h	forecast from 25 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Lecce 0-2-3 (n = 5)

	home		away
9 May 2026	Lecce	0–1	Juventus
3 Jan 2026	Juventus	1–1	Lecce
12 Apr 2025	Juventus	2–1	Lecce
1 Dec 2024	Lecce	1–1	Juventus
21 Jan 2024	Lecce	0–3	Juventus

All 6 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

US Lecce · 3+ goals: 4

		now	longest in our database
US Lecce	3+ goals	4	4

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	17%	14%	7%	3%	1%	<1%
1	6%	11%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	2%	3%	3%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	17%	14%	7%	3%	1%	<1%
1	6%	11%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	2%	3%	3%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	17%	14%	7%	3%	1%	<1%
1	6%	11%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	2%	3%	3%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%