Cagliari Calcio 0–2 Bologna FC 1909

Serie A · Matchday 8 · 24 Oct 2026 13:00 UTC · referee: Kevin Bonacina (19 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

0–2 · hit · surprise: 0.85 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

29%1 · Cagliari≈ 1 in 3.42

28%X≈ 1 in 3.59

43%2 · Bologna≈ 1 in 2.33

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side have scored in each of their last 3 matches. The home side last played 4 days ago, the away side 6 days ago. The model estimates 43% for an away win (frozen before kick-off).

League position8 vs 15

Elo rating1449 vs 1533

Last 5WWWDL homeDLDWL away

Rest days4 vs 6

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 13% · 0–1: 12% · 0–0: 9%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	9%	12%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	13%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	5%	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 63% vs 40%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Cagliari	Bologna	League
League position	8th of 20 · 13 pts	15th of 20 · 5 pts	—
Elo rating	1449	1533	—
Last 5	WWWDL	DLDWL	—
Points rate (last 10)	63%	40%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.0	1.3	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.1	1.5	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	47%	70%	49% · 44%
Both teams score (10)	4 of 10	6 of 10	48%
3+ goals in the match (10)	4 of 10	5 of 10	50%
Days of rest	4	6	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 40% vs 40% · league 38%

CagliariBolognaleague, year before the match · n = 381

	Cagliari	league	Bologna
Winswon the match	40%8 of 2022–61%	38%293 of 76235–42%	40%8 of 2022–61%
Scoresscored at least once	65%13 of 2043–82%	70%536 of 76267–73%	65%13 of 2043–82%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	50%191 of 38145–55%	35%7 of 2018–57%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	48%182 of 38143–53%	40%8 of 2022–61%
Concedesconceded at least once	70%14 of 2048–85%	70%536 of 76267–73%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	20%4 of 208–42%	29%218 of 76226–32%	35%7 of 2018–57%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 10 vs 5

Cagliari · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WWWDL

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

5:6goals

Bologna · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DLDWL

5pts

1-2-2W-D-L

6:8goals

Cagliari · Last 5 at home n = 5

LWLWD

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

4:5goals

Bologna · Last 5 away n = 5

WWLLW

9pts

3-0-2W-D-L

6:5goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 9 → 10 vs 7 → 5

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Cagliari	Bologna
Points (of 15)	9 → 10 ▲	7 → 5 ▼
Goals scored per match	1.0 → 1.0 =	1.4 → 1.2 ▼
Goals conceded per match	1.0 → 1.2 ▲	1.4 → 1.6 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1552 → 1501 easier opponents	1627 → 1541 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+9 (1449)	−7 (1533)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 4 vs 6

	Cagliari	Bologna
days since last match	4	6
matches in last 7 days	1	1
matches in last 14 days	2	2
position	8 (13 pts)	15 (5 pts)
points off 1st	6	14
points off top 4	2	10
points above bottom 3	9	1
matches left (incl. this one)	31	31
coach (league matches led before)	Fabio Pisacane since 11 Jun 2025 · 45 matches	unconfirmed
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 620 km
weather at kick-off	21 °C · 0.0 mm · 22 km/h	forecast from 24 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI, coach.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Cagliari 1-1-3 (n = 5)

	home		away
3 May 2026	Bologna	0–0	Cagliari
19 Oct 2025	Cagliari	0–2	Bologna
2 Mar 2025	Bologna	2–1	Cagliari
29 Oct 2024	Cagliari	0–2	Bologna
14 Jan 2024	Cagliari	2–1	Bologna

All 7 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Bologna FC 1909 · scoring: 3

		now	longest in our database
Bologna FC 1909	scoring	3	11
Bologna FC 1909	conceding	8	13
Bologna FC 1909	both teams score	3	5

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	9%	12%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	13%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	5%	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	9%	12%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	13%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	5%	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	9%	12%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	13%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	5%	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%