SSC Napoli 3–3 AS Roma

Serie A · Matchday 8 · 24 Oct 2026 16:00 UTC · referee: Andrea Colombo (49 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

3–3 · miss · surprise: 1.17 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

33%1 · Napoli≈ 1 in 2.99

31%X≈ 1 in 3.23

36%2 · Roma≈ 1 in 2.81

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side are unbeaten in their last 14 matches. The away side play their 3rd match in 7 days. The model estimates 36% for an away win (frozen before kick-off).

League position10 vs 3

Elo rating1625 vs 1651

Last 5LWDWL homeWWDDW away

Rest days3 vs 3

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 14% · 0–0: 13% · 0–1: 13%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	13%	13%	7%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	13%	14%	7%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	7%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 53% vs 87%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Napoli	Roma	League
League position	10th of 20 · 10 pts	3rd of 20 · 17 pts	—
Elo rating	1625	1651	—
Last 5	LWDWL	WWDDW	—
Points rate (last 10)	53%	87%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.6	2.3	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.0	0.5	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	70%	57%	49% · 44%
Both teams score (10)	4 of 10	3 of 10	48%
3+ goals in the match (10)	5 of 10	5 of 10	50%
Days of rest	3	3	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 55% vs 65% · league 39%

NapoliRomaleague, year before the match · n = 383

	Napoli	league	Roma
Winswon the match	55%11 of 2034–74%	39%295 of 76635–42%	65%13 of 2043–82%
Scoresscored at least once	85%17 of 2064–95%	70%538 of 76667–73%	95%19 of 2076–99%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	50%10 of 2030–70%	50%191 of 38345–55%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	48%182 of 38343–53%	40%8 of 2022–61%
Concedesconceded at least once	55%11 of 2034–74%	70%538 of 76667–73%	40%8 of 2022–61%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	28%218 of 76625–32%	55%11 of 2034–74%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 7 vs 11

Napoli · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LWDWL

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

7:5goals

Roma · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WWDDW

11pts

3-2-0W-D-L

8:3goals

Napoli · Last 5 at home n = 5

LWLWW

9pts

3-0-2W-D-L

8:5goals

Roma · Last 5 away n = 5

WWWWD

13pts

4-1-0W-D-L

11:2goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 9 → 7 vs 15 → 11

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Napoli	Roma
Points (of 15)	9 → 7 ▼	15 → 11 ▼
Goals scored per match	1.8 → 1.4 ▼	3.0 → 1.6 ▼
Goals conceded per match	1.0 → 1.0 =	0.4 → 0.6 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1497 → 1531 tougher opponents	1468 → 1575 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−4 (1625)	+12 (1651)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 3 vs 3

	Napoli	Roma
days since last match	3	3
matches in last 7 days	1	2
matches in last 14 days	4	4
position	10 (10 pts)	3 (17 pts)
points off 1st	9	2
points off top 4	5	in top 4
points above bottom 3	6	13
matches left (incl. this one)	31	31
coach (league matches led before)	Massimiliano Allegri since 3 Jul 2026 · 7 matches	Gian Piero Gasperini since 6 Jun 2025 · 45 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 190 km
weather at kick-off	19 °C · 0.0 mm · 17 km/h	forecast from 24 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Napoli 2-3-0 (n = 5)

	home		away
15 Feb 2026	Napoli	2–2	Roma
30 Nov 2025	Roma	0–1	Napoli
2 Feb 2025	Roma	1–1	Napoli
24 Nov 2024	Napoli	1–0	Roma
28 Apr 2024	Napoli	2–2	Roma

All 7 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

AS Roma · unbeaten: 14

		now	longest in our database
AS Roma	unbeaten	14	19

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	13%	13%	7%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	13%	14%	7%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	7%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	13%	13%	7%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	13%	14%	7%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	7%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	13%	13%	7%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	13%	14%	7%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	6%	7%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%