Athletic Club – Getafe CF

La Liga · Matchday 10 · 25 Oct 2026 13:00 UTC

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

44%1 · Athletic≈ 1 in 2.29

36%X≈ 1 in 2.78

20%2 · Getafe≈ 1 in 4.93

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

As of today, the home side are winless in their last 4 matches. The home side last played 3 days ago, the away side 5 days ago. The model estimates 44% for a home win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

Form, streaks, position and points are today's (25 Oct 2026), not the ones at kick-off: before this match the home side still have 1 league matches to play, the away side 0.

League position17 vs 15

Elo rating1525 vs 1474

Last 5WDDDL homeDLWLD away

Rest days3 vs 5

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

0–0: 22% · 1–0: 20% · 1–1: 13%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	22%	11%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	20%	13%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	10%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 33% vs 40%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Athletic	Getafe	League
League position	17th of 20 · 9 pts	15th of 20 · 9 pts	—
Elo rating	1525	1474	—
Last 5	WDDDL	DLWLD	—
Points rate (last 10)	33%	40%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.1	0.6	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.4	1.1	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	40%	23%	57% · 35%
Both teams score (10)	5 of 10	3 of 10	57%
3+ goals in the match (10)	4 of 10	2 of 10	52%
Days of rest	3	5	—

Goals and the first half

For each condition: the chance estimated by the model (calibrated on past seasons, the same as in the filters and the Arena), how often it happened in the teams' last 10 matches and how often across the whole league over the last 12 months. “Both teams score” = each team scores at least once (1–1 counts, 2–0 does not). “Draw or 3+ goals” = the match ends level OR has at least 3 goals (1–1 and 2–1 count, 1–0 does not); for “draw or 4+”, 2–2 and 3–1 count, 2–1 does not.

3+ goals: model 34%

Condition	Model	The teams' last 10	League, 12 months
Both teams score	44%≈ 1 in 2.27	40%8 of 20	57%
2+ goals	63%≈ 1 in 1.59	65%13 of 20	77%
3+ goals	34%≈ 1 in 2.92	30%6 of 20	52%
At most 2 goals	66%≈ 1 in 1.52	70%14 of 20	48%
Home team scores	65%≈ 1 in 1.53	70%7 of 10	81%
Away team scores	53%≈ 1 in 1.90	60%6 of 10	70%
1st half: 1+ goal	59%≈ 1 in 1.70	55%11 of 20	68%
1st half: 2+ goals	19%≈ 1 in 5.19	20%4 of 20	34%
Draw or 3+ goals	63%≈ 1 in 1.59	65%13 of 20	72%
Draw or 4+ goals	43%≈ 1 in 2.34	50%10 of 20	49%

“Last 10”: each team's league matches, home or away (for “home / away team scores”, only that team's). Tap a condition to see every upcoming match where it happened often.

Home side at home · visitors away n = 4 · 4

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 1.25 vs 0.00

	Athletic at home	Getafe away
matches	4	4
scored / match	1.25league 1.69	0.00league 1.35
conceded / match	1.00league 1.35	2.00league 1.69
both scored	50%2 of 4 · league 60%	0%0 of 4 · league 60%
3+ goals	50%2 of 4 · league 56%	50%2 of 4 · league 56%
clean sheet	50%2 of 4 · league 30%	0%0 of 4 · league 19%
failed to score	25%1 of 4 · league 19%	100%4 of 4 · league 30%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 25% vs 35% · league 38%

AthleticGetafeleague, year before the match · n = 382

	Athletic	league	Getafe
Winswon the match	25%5 of 2011–47%	38%289 of 76434–41%	35%7 of 2018–57%
Scoresscored at least once	60%12 of 2039–78%	76%579 of 76473–79%	50%10 of 2030–70%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	52%198 of 38247–57%	20%4 of 208–42%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	57%217 of 38252–62%	25%5 of 2011–47%
Concedesconceded at least once	75%15 of 2053–89%	76%579 of 76473–79%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	20%4 of 208–42%	28%214 of 76425–31%	25%5 of 2011–47%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 6 vs 5

Athletic · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WDDDL

6pts

1-3-1W-D-L

5:4goals

Getafe · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DLWLD

5pts

1-2-2W-D-L

3:6goals

Athletic · Last 5 at home n = 5

DLWDD

6pts

1-3-1W-D-L

6:5goals

Getafe · Last 5 away n = 5

LLLLL

0pts

0-0-5W-D-L

0:9goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 4 → 6 vs 7 → 5

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Athletic	Getafe
Points (of 15)	4 → 6 ▲	7 → 5 ▼
Goals scored per match	1.2 → 1.0 ▼	0.6 → 0.6 =
Goals conceded per match	2.0 → 0.8 ▼	1.0 → 1.2 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1587 → 1508 easier opponents	1489 → 1568 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	±0 (1525)	−1 (1474)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 3 vs 5

	Athletic	Getafe
days since last match	3	5
matches in last 7 days	1	1
matches in last 14 days	2	1
position today	17 (9 pts)	15 (9 pts)
points off 1st	18	18
points off top 4	10	10
points above bottom 3	1	1
matches left (incl. this one)	29	29
simulator impact	31 pp	31 pp
coach (league matches led before)	Edin Terzić since May 2026 · 13 matches	José Bordalás since 29 Apr 2023 · 123 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 330 km
weather at kick-off	20 °C · 0.0 mm · 9 km/h	forecast from 25 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Athletic 2-1-2 (n = 5)

	home		away
5 Apr 2026	Getafe	2–0	Athletic
25 Oct 2025	Athletic	0–1	Getafe
15 May 2025	Getafe	0–2	Athletic
15 Aug 2024	Athletic	1–1	Getafe
3 May 2024	Getafe	0–2	Athletic

All 6 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Athletic Club · winless: 4

		now	longest in our database
Athletic Club	winless	4	6

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	22%	11%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	20%	13%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	10%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	22%	11%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	20%	13%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	10%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	22%	11%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	20%	13%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	10%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%