Ipswich Town FC 1–1 Nottingham Forest FC

Premier League · Matchday 8 · 23 Oct 2026 19:00 UTC · referee: Thomas Bramall (48 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

1–1 · miss · surprise: 1.37 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

24%1 · Ipswich Town≈ 1 in 4.14

25%X≈ 1 in 3.92

50%2 · Nottingham≈ 1 in 1.99

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side are winless in their last 3 matches. The home side are 4 points above the bottom three with 31 matches left. The model estimates 50% for an away win (frozen before kick-off).

League position10 vs 19

Elo rating1405 vs 1499

Last 5LWLWL homeDWLLL away

Rest days6 vs 5

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 12% · 1–2: 10% · 0–1: 8%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	8%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
1	5%	12%	10%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
2	4%	6%	6%	3%	1%	1%	<1%
3	1%	3%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 43% vs 23%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Ipswich Town	Nottingham	League
League position	10th of 20 · 9 pts	19th of 20 · 5 pts	—
Elo rating	1405	1499	—
Last 5	LWLWL	DWLLL	—
Points rate (last 10)	43%	23%	45%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.6	0.9	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	2.1	1.4	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	—	47%	51% · 40%
Both teams score (10)	5 of 7	6 of 10	56%
3+ goals in the match (10)	5 of 7	4 of 10	55%
Days of rest	6	5	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 36% vs 75% · league 25%

Ipswich TownNottinghamleague, year before the match · n = 370

	Ipswich Town	league	Nottingham
Winswon the match	—	36%265 of 74032–39%	25%5 of 2011–47%
Scoresscored at least once	—	75%553 of 74071–78%	65%13 of 2043–82%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	—	55%205 of 37050–60%	50%10 of 2030–70%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	—	56%209 of 37051–61%	55%11 of 2034–74%
Concedesconceded at least once	—	75%553 of 74071–78%	75%15 of 2053–89%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	—	30%224 of 74027–34%	25%5 of 2011–47%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Ipswich Town: not enough data: 7 of 8 matches

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 6 vs 4

Ipswich Town · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LWLWL

6pts

2-0-3W-D-L

7:9goals

Nottingham · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DWLLL

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

3:6goals

Ipswich Town · Last 5 at home

not enough data (3 of 5)

Nottingham · Last 5 away n = 5

WLDWL

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

10:10goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): not enough data (7 matches in a row; the comparison needs 10) 3 → 4 vs not enough data (7 matches in a row; the comparison needs 10) 1.2 → 0.6

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Ipswich Town	Nottingham
Points (of 15)	not enough data (7 matches in a row; the comparison needs 10)	3 → 4 ▲
Goals scored per match	not enough data (7 matches in a row; the comparison needs 10)	1.2 → 0.6 ▼
Goals conceded per match	not enough data (7 matches in a row; the comparison needs 10)	1.6 → 1.2 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	not enough data (7 matches in a row; the comparison needs 10)	1555 → 1539 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+4 (1405)	−11 (1499)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 6 vs 5

	Ipswich Town	Nottingham
days since last match	6	5
matches in last 7 days	1	1
matches in last 14 days	2	2
position	10 (9 pts)	19 (5 pts)
points off 1st	12	16
points off top 4	4	8
points above bottom 3	4	bottom 3 · 1 off 17th
matches left (incl. this one)	31	31
coach (league matches led before)	Gary O'Neil since 23 Jun 2026 · 7 matches	Oliver Glasner since 6 Jul 2026 · 7 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 180 km
weather at kick-off	9 °C · 0.0 mm · 33 km/h	forecast from 23 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Ipswich Town 0-0-2 (n = 2)

	home		away
15 Mar 2025	Ipswich Town	2–4	Nottingham
30 Nov 2024	Nottingham	1–0	Ipswich Town

All 3 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Ipswich Town FC · conceding: 7

		now	longest in our database
Ipswich Town FC	conceding	7	19
Nottingham Forest FC	winless	3	9
Nottingham Forest FC	conceding	4	19

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	8%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
1	5%	12%	10%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
2	4%	6%	6%	3%	1%	1%	<1%
3	1%	3%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	8%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
1	5%	12%	10%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
2	4%	6%	6%	3%	1%	1%	<1%
3	1%	3%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	8%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
1	5%	12%	10%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
2	4%	6%	6%	3%	1%	1%	<1%
3	1%	3%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%