AS Monaco FC – Lille OSC

Ligue 1 · Matchday 8 · 25 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

40%1 · Monaco≈ 1 in 2.52

28%X≈ 1 in 3.52

32%2 · Lille≈ 1 in 3.13

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side have scored in each of their last 7 matches. The home side last played 6 days ago, the away side 3 days ago. The model estimates 40% for a home win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

League position5 vs 3

Elo rating1590 vs 1597

Last 5WDWDL homeWWLWD away

Rest days6 vs 3

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 13% · 1–0: 11% · 0–0: 9%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	9%	9%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	11%	13%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 57% vs 60%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Monaco	Lille	League
League position	5th of 18 · 14 pts	3rd of 18 · 14 pts	—
Elo rating	1590	1597	—
Last 5	WDWDL	WWLWD	—
Points rate (last 10)	57%	60%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.6	1.2	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.3	0.8	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	77%	83%	52% · 39%
Both teams score (10)	6 of 10	4 of 10	53%
3+ goals in the match (10)	5 of 10	2 of 10	55%
Days of rest	6	3	—

Goals and the first half

For each condition: the chance estimated by the model (calibrated on past seasons, the same as in the filters and the Arena), how often it happened in the teams' last 10 matches and how often across the whole league over the last 12 months. “Both teams score” = each team scores at least once (1–1 counts, 2–0 does not). “Draw or 3+ goals” = the match ends level OR has at least 3 goals (1–1 and 2–1 count, 1–0 does not); for “draw or 4+”, 2–2 and 3–1 count, 2–1 does not.

3+ goals: model 49%

Condition	Model	The teams' last 10	League, 12 months
Both teams score	54%≈ 1 in 1.87	53%10 of 19	53%
2+ goals	74%≈ 1 in 1.35	74%14 of 19	74%
3+ goals	49%≈ 1 in 2.06	37%7 of 19	55%
At most 2 goals	51%≈ 1 in 1.95	63%12 of 19	45%
Home team scores	74%≈ 1 in 1.34	80%8 of 10	76%
Away team scores	70%≈ 1 in 1.42	90%9 of 10	69%
1st half: 1+ goal	68%≈ 1 in 1.46	74%14 of 19	71%
1st half: 2+ goals	30%≈ 1 in 3.34	21%4 of 19	34%
Draw or 3+ goals	69%≈ 1 in 1.46	53%10 of 19	72%
Draw or 4+ goals	45%≈ 1 in 2.20	32%6 of 19	50%

“Last 10”: each team's league matches, home or away (for “home / away team scores”, only that team's). Tap a condition to see every upcoming match where it happened often.

Home side at home · visitors away n = 3 · 3

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 2.00 vs 1.33

	Monaco at home	Lille away
matches	3	3
scored / match	2.00league 1.63	1.33league 1.42
conceded / match	1.00league 1.42	0.67league 1.63
both scored	67%2 of 3 · league 65%	33%1 of 3 · league 65%
3+ goals	67%2 of 3 · league 65%	33%1 of 3 · league 65%
clean sheet	33%1 of 3 · league 23%	67%2 of 3 · league 18%
failed to score	0%0 of 3 · league 18%	0%0 of 3 · league 23%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 60% vs 60% · league 38%

MonacoLilleleague, year before the match · n = 298

	Monaco	league	Lille
Winswon the match	60%12 of 2039–78%	38%225 of 59634–42%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Scoresscored at least once	90%18 of 2070–97%	72%431 of 59669–76%	90%18 of 2070–97%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	65%13 of 2043–82%	55%163 of 29849–60%	30%6 of 2015–52%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	70%14 of 2048–85%	53%158 of 29847–59%	40%8 of 2022–61%
Concedesconceded at least once	80%16 of 2058–92%	72%431 of 59669–76%	45%9 of 2026–66%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	30%180 of 59427–34%	45%9 of 2026–66%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 8 vs 10

Monaco · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WDWDL

8pts

2-2-1W-D-L

7:6goals

Lille · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WWLWD

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

6:3goals

Monaco · Last 5 at home n = 5

DLWWD

8pts

2-2-1W-D-L

8:6goals

Lille · Last 5 away n = 5

WWWWL

12pts

4-0-1W-D-L

6:2goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 9 → 8 vs 8 → 10

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Monaco	Lille
Points (of 15)	9 → 8 ▼	8 → 10 ▲
Goals scored per match	1.8 → 1.4 ▼	1.2 → 1.2 =
Goals conceded per match	1.4 → 1.2 ▼	1.0 → 0.6 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1506 → 1565 tougher opponents	1526 → 1479 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+4 (1590)	+3 (1597)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 6 vs 3

	Monaco	Lille
days since last match	6	3
matches in last 7 days	1	1
matches in last 14 days	1	3
position today	5 (14 pts)	3 (14 pts)
points off 1st	0	0
points off top 4	0	in top 4
points above bottom 3	8	8
matches left (incl. this one)	27	27
simulator impact	76 pp	76 pp
coach (league matches led before)	Filipe Luís since 6 Jul 2026 · 7 matches	Davide Ancelotti since 1 Jun 2026 · 7 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 830 km
weather at kick-off	17 °C · 0.0 mm · 5 km/h	forecast from 25 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Monaco 1-1-3 (n = 5)

	home		away
10 May 2026	Monaco	0–1	Lille
24 Aug 2025	Lille	1–0	Monaco
22 Feb 2025	Lille	2–1	Monaco
18 Oct 2024	Monaco	0–0	Lille
24 Apr 2024	Monaco	1–0	Lille

All 6 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

AS Monaco FC · conceding: 5

		now	longest in our database
AS Monaco FC	conceding	5	9
Lille OSC	scoring	7	10

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	9%	9%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	11%	13%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	9%	9%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	11%	13%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	9%	9%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	11%	13%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%