Aston Villa FC 2–1 Manchester City FC

Premier League · Matchday 8 · 24 Oct 2026 11:30 UTC · referee: Peter Bankes (62 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

2–1 · miss · surprise: 1.45 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

23%1 · Aston Villa≈ 1 in 4.28

26%X≈ 1 in 3.88

51%2 · Man City≈ 1 in 1.97

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side have scored in each of their last 23 matches. The home side play their 3rd match in 7 days. The model estimates 51% for an away win (frozen before kick-off).

League position12 vs 1

Elo rating1563 vs 1709

Last 5DLWDW homeWWWWW away

Rest days2 vs 3

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 12% · 1–2: 10% · 0–1: 9%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	9%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
1	5%	12%	10%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
2	4%	6%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	2%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 50% vs 83%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Aston Villa	Man City	League
League position	12th of 20 · 8 pts	1st of 20 · 21 pts	—
Elo rating	1563	1709	—
Last 5	DLWDW	WWWWW	—
Points rate (last 10)	50%	83%	45%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.5	2.4	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.6	1.0	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	47%	80%	50% · 40%
Both teams score (10)	6 of 10	6 of 10	57%
3+ goals in the match (10)	7 of 10	7 of 10	55%
Days of rest	2	3	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 35% vs 75% · league 36%

Aston VillaMan Cityleague, year before the match · n = 371

	Aston Villa	league	Man City
Winswon the match	35%7 of 2018–57%	36%265 of 74232–39%	75%15 of 2053–89%
Scoresscored at least once	75%15 of 2053–89%	75%555 of 74272–78%	100%20 of 2084–100%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	55%11 of 2034–74%	55%205 of 37150–60%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	60%12 of 2039–78%	57%210 of 37152–62%	55%11 of 2034–74%
Concedesconceded at least once	80%16 of 2058–92%	75%555 of 74272–78%	55%11 of 2034–74%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	25%5 of 2011–47%	30%224 of 74227–34%	60%12 of 2039–78%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 8 vs 15

Aston Villa · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DLWDW

8pts

2-2-1W-D-L

7:6goals

Man City · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WWWWW

15pts

5-0-0W-D-L

13:5goals

Aston Villa · Last 5 at home n = 5

LWLLD

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

8:9goals

Man City · Last 5 away n = 5

DDWWW

11pts

3-2-0W-D-L

12:5goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 7 → 8 vs 10 → 15

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Aston Villa	Man City
Points (of 15)	7 → 8 ▲	10 → 15 ▲
Goals scored per match	1.6 → 1.4 ▼	2.2 → 2.6 ▲
Goals conceded per match	2.0 → 1.2 ▼	1.0 → 1.0 =
Average Elo of the opponents	1586 → 1509 easier opponents	1535 → 1518 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+2 (1563)	+18 (1709)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 2 vs 3

	Aston Villa	Man City
days since last match	2	3
matches in last 7 days	2	2
matches in last 14 days	4	4
position	12 (8 pts)	1 (21 pts)
points off 1st	13	0
points off top 4	5	in top 4
points above bottom 3	2	15
matches left (incl. this one)	31	31
coach (league matches led before)	Unai Emery since 1 Nov 2022 · 121 matches	Enzo Maresca since 29 Jun 2026 · 7 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 110 km
weather at kick-off	9 °C · 0.3 mm · 19 km/h	forecast from 24 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Aston Villa 3-0-2 (n = 5)

	home		away
24 May 2026	Man City	1–2	Aston Villa
26 Oct 2025	Aston Villa	1–0	Man City
22 Apr 2025	Man City	2–1	Aston Villa
21 Dec 2024	Aston Villa	2–1	Man City
3 Apr 2024	Man City	4–1	Aston Villa

All 7 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Aston Villa FC · unbeaten: 3

		now	longest in our database
Aston Villa FC	unbeaten	3	8
Aston Villa FC	scoring	4	13
Manchester City FC	unbeaten	7	32
Manchester City FC	wins in a row	7	13
Manchester City FC	scoring	23	23
Manchester City FC	3+ goals	3	9

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	9%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
1	5%	12%	10%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
2	4%	6%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	2%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	9%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
1	5%	12%	10%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
2	4%	6%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	2%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	9%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
1	5%	12%	10%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
2	4%	6%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	2%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%