1. FSV Mainz 05 2–3 SV Werder Bremen

Bundesliga · Matchday 7 · 24 Oct 2026 13:30 UTC · referee: Florian Badstübner (44 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

2–3 · miss · surprise: 1.46 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

53%1 · Mainz≈ 1 in 1.90

24%X≈ 1 in 4.12

23%2 · Bremen≈ 1 in 4.32

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side have scored in each of their last 6 matches. The away side travel roughly 350 km. The model estimates 53% for a home win (frozen before kick-off).

League position5 vs 8

Elo rating1517 vs 1467

Last 5WLWLW homeWDWDD away

Rest days7 vs 7

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 11% · 2–1: 10% · 1–0: 9%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	11%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	9%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 53% vs 33%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Mainz	Bremen	League
League position	5th of 18 · 10 pts	8th of 18 · 9 pts	—
Elo rating	1517	1467	—
Last 5	WLWLW	WDWDD	—
Points rate (last 10)	53%	33%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	2.2	1.4	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.8	1.9	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	30%	30%	54% · 38%
Both teams score (10)	6 of 10	8 of 10	62%
3+ goals in the match (10)	7 of 10	6 of 10	65%
Days of rest	7	7	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 45% vs 30% · league 38%

MainzBremenleague, year before the match · n = 298

	Mainz	league	Bremen
Winswon the match	45%9 of 2026–66%	38%225 of 59634–42%	30%6 of 2015–52%
Scoresscored at least once	85%17 of 2064–95%	79%471 of 59676–82%	75%15 of 2053–89%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	55%11 of 2034–74%	65%195 of 29860–71%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	60%12 of 2039–78%	62%186 of 29857–68%	65%13 of 2043–82%
Concedesconceded at least once	70%14 of 2048–85%	79%471 of 59676–82%	90%18 of 2070–97%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	50%10 of 2030–70%	32%191 of 59628–36%	15%3 of 205–36%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 9 vs 9

Mainz · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WLWLW

9pts

3-0-2W-D-L

14:10goals

Bremen · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WDWDD

9pts

2-3-0W-D-L

11:8goals

Mainz · Last 5 at home n = 5

LLDLL

1pts

0-1-4W-D-L

8:14goals

Bremen · Last 5 away n = 5

DLLDD

3pts

0-3-2W-D-L

5:9goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 7 → 9 vs 1 → 9

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Mainz	Bremen
Points (of 15)	7 → 9 ▲	1 → 9 ▲
Goals scored per match	1.6 → 2.8 ▲	0.6 → 2.2 ▲
Goals conceded per match	1.6 → 2.0 ▲	2.2 → 1.6 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1500 (4 of 5) → 1518 tougher opponents	1548 → 1532 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+8 (1517)	+17 (1467)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 7 vs 7

	Mainz	Bremen
days since last match	7	7
matches in last 7 days	1	1
matches in last 14 days	2	1
position	5 (10 pts)	8 (9 pts)
points off 1st	4	5
points off top 4	3	4
points above bottom 3	5	4
matches left (incl. this one)	28	28
coach (league matches led before)	Urs Fischer since 7 Dec 2025 · 27 matches	Daniel Thioune since 4 Feb 2026 · 20 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 350 km
weather at kick-off	12 °C · 0.0 mm · 15 km/h	forecast from 24 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Mainz 1-1-3 (n = 5)

	home		away
15 Mar 2026	Bremen	0–2	Mainz
1 Nov 2025	Mainz	1–1	Bremen
31 Jan 2025	Bremen	1–0	Mainz
15 Sep 2024	Mainz	1–2	Bremen
3 Feb 2024	Mainz	0–1	Bremen

All 7 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

1. FSV Mainz 05 · scoring: 5

		now	longest in our database
1. FSV Mainz 05	scoring	5	11
SV Werder Bremen	unbeaten	5	8
SV Werder Bremen	scoring	6	13
SV Werder Bremen	conceding	13	13
SV Werder Bremen	both teams score	6	6
SV Werder Bremen	3+ goals	3	6

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	11%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	9%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	11%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	9%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	11%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	9%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%