SS Lazio 2–1 Parma Calcio 1913

Serie A · Matchday 8 · 24 Oct 2026 18:45 UTC · referee: Alberto Arena (15 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

2–1 · hit · surprise: 0.57 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

56%1 · Lazio≈ 1 in 1.77

26%X≈ 1 in 3.80

17%2 · Parma≈ 1 in 5.81

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side are unbeaten in their last 8 matches. The away side travel roughly 360 km. The model estimates 56% for a home win (frozen before kick-off).

League position2 vs 16

Elo rating1582 vs 1441

Last 5WDWWW homeDLWLL away

Rest days6 vs 5

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–0: 16% · 1–1: 12% · 2–0: 12%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	16%	12%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	12%	9%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 73% vs 23%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Lazio	Parma	League
League position	2nd of 20 · 19 pts	16th of 20 · 4 pts	—
Elo rating	1582	1441	—
Last 5	WDWWW	DLWLL	—
Points rate (last 10)	73%	23%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.6	0.7	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.0	1.7	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	60%	27%	49% · 44%
Both teams score (10)	4 of 10	4 of 10	48%
3+ goals in the match (10)	6 of 10	5 of 10	50%
Days of rest	6	5	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 60% vs 25% · league 38%

LazioParmaleague, year before the match · n = 384

	Lazio	league	Parma
Winswon the match	60%12 of 2039–78%	38%295 of 76835–42%	25%5 of 2011–47%
Scoresscored at least once	75%15 of 2053–89%	70%540 of 76867–73%	60%12 of 2039–78%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	50%192 of 38445–55%	30%6 of 2015–52%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	40%8 of 2022–61%	48%183 of 38443–53%	40%8 of 2022–61%
Concedesconceded at least once	60%12 of 2039–78%	70%540 of 76867–73%	75%15 of 2053–89%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	35%7 of 2018–57%	29%219 of 76825–32%	15%3 of 205–36%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 13 vs 4

Lazio · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WDWWW

13pts

4-1-0W-D-L

12:4goals

Parma · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DLWLL

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

4:10goals

Lazio · Last 5 at home n = 5

LWWDW

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

8:7goals

Parma · Last 5 away n = 5

LLLLL

0pts

0-0-5W-D-L

1:10goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 9 → 13 vs 3 → 4

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Lazio	Parma
Points (of 15)	9 → 13 ▲	3 → 4 ▲
Goals scored per match	0.8 → 2.4 ▲	0.6 → 0.8 ▲
Goals conceded per match	1.2 → 0.8 ▼	1.4 → 2.0 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1552 → 1502 easier opponents	1545 → 1527 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+24 (1582)	−12 (1441)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 6 vs 5

	Lazio	Parma
days since last match	6	5
matches in last 7 days	1	1
matches in last 14 days	2	1
position	2 (19 pts)	16 (4 pts)
points off 1st	0	15
points off top 4	in top 4	11
points above bottom 3	15	0
matches left (incl. this one)	31	31
coach (league matches led before)	Gennaro Gattuso since 23 Jun 2026 · 7 matches	unconfirmed
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 360 km
weather at kick-off	16 °C · 0.0 mm · 1 km/h	forecast from 24 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI, coach.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Lazio 1-2-1 (n = 4)

	home		away
4 Apr 2026	Lazio	1–1	Parma
13 Dec 2025	Parma	0–1	Lazio
28 Apr 2025	Lazio	2–2	Parma
1 Dec 2024	Parma	3–1	Lazio

All 5 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

SS Lazio · unbeaten: 8

		now	longest in our database
SS Lazio	unbeaten	8	8
SS Lazio	wins in a row	3	5
SS Lazio	scoring	8	14
Parma Calcio 1913	conceding	7	11
Parma Calcio 1913	3+ goals	4	7

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	16%	12%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	12%	9%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	16%	12%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	12%	9%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	16%	12%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	12%	9%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%