Club Atlético de Madrid 1–0 RC Deportivo La Coruña

La Liga · Matchday 10 · 24 Oct 2026 19:00 UTC · referee: José Sánchez Martínez (58 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

1–0 · hit · surprise: 0.42 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

65%1 · Atleti≈ 1 in 1.53

21%X≈ 1 in 4.75

13%2 · Deportivo≈ 1 in 7.42

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side are unbeaten in their last 5 matches. The home side last played 4 days ago, the away side 8 days ago. The model estimates 65% for a home win (frozen before kick-off).

League position2 vs 10

Elo rating1642 vs 1502

Last 5WWWWW homeDLDLD away

Rest days4 vs 8

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

2–0: 12% · 1–0: 11% · 1–1: 10%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	11%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	12%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	8%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	4%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): 1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 73% vs 41%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Atleti	Deportivo	League
League position	2nd of 20 · 22 pts	10th of 20 · 11 pts	—
Elo rating	1642	1502	—
Last 5	WWWWW	DLDLD	—
Points rate (last 10)	73%	41%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	2.0	1.4	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.3	1.3	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	73%	—	56% · 35%
Both teams score (10)	5 of 10	8 of 9	57%
3+ goals in the match (10)	8 of 10	3 of 9	52%
Days of rest	4	8	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 60% vs 22% · league 38%

AtletiDeportivoleague, year before the match · n = 383

	Atleti	league	Deportivo
Winswon the match	60%12 of 2039–78%	38%289 of 76634–41%	22%2 of 96–55%
Scoresscored at least once	90%18 of 2070–97%	76%582 of 76673–79%	89%8 of 956–98%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	70%14 of 2048–85%	52%200 of 38347–57%	33%3 of 912–65%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	55%11 of 2034–74%	57%219 of 38352–62%	89%8 of 956–98%
Concedesconceded at least once	65%13 of 2043–82%	76%582 of 76673–79%	100%9 of 970–100%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	30%6 of 2015–52%	28%216 of 76625–31%	22%2 of 96–55%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 15 vs 3

Atleti · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WWWWW

15pts

5-0-0W-D-L

12:2goals

Deportivo · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DLDLD

3pts

0-3-2W-D-L

5:7goals

Atleti · Last 5 at home n = 5

WWDWW

13pts

4-1-0W-D-L

11:3goals

Deportivo · Last 5 away

not enough data (4 of 5)

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 7 → 15 vs not enough data (9 matches in a row; the comparison needs 10) Goals scored per match 1.6 → 2.4

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Atleti	Deportivo
Points (of 15)	7 → 15 ▲	not enough data (9 matches in a row; the comparison needs 10)
Goals scored per match	1.6 → 2.4 ▲	not enough data (9 matches in a row; the comparison needs 10)
Goals conceded per match	2.2 → 0.4 ▼	not enough data (9 matches in a row; the comparison needs 10)
Average Elo of the opponents	1547 (4 of 5) → 1528 easier opponents	not enough data (9 matches in a row; the comparison needs 10)
Elo over the last 5 matches	+24 (1642)	−11 (1502)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 4 vs 8

	Atleti	Deportivo
days since last match	4	8
matches in last 7 days	1	0
matches in last 14 days	3	2
position	2 (22 pts)	10 (11 pts)
points off 1st	5	16
points off top 4	in top 4	8
points above bottom 3	15	4
matches left (incl. this one)	29	29
coach (league matches led before)	Diego Simeone since 23 Dec 2011 · 123 matches	Antonio Hidalgo since 10 Jun 2025 · 9 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 510 km
weather at kick-off	15 °C · 0.0 mm · 4 km/h	forecast from 24 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

not enough data

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Club Atlético de Madrid · unbeaten: 5

		now	longest in our database
Club Atlético de Madrid	unbeaten	5	13
Club Atlético de Madrid	wins in a row	5	8
Club Atlético de Madrid	scoring	5	17
RC Deportivo La Coruña	winless	5	5
RC Deportivo La Coruña	scoring	3	5
RC Deportivo La Coruña	conceding	9	9
RC Deportivo La Coruña	both teams score	3	5

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	11%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	12%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	8%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	4%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	11%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	12%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	8%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	4%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	11%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	12%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	8%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	4%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%