Racing Club de Lens 2–1 Paris FC

Ligue 1 · Matchday 8 · 24 Oct 2026 18:45 UTC · referee: Mathieu Vernice (50 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

2–1 · hit · surprise: 0.66 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

51%1 · RC Lens≈ 1 in 1.94

24%X≈ 1 in 4.11

24%2 · Paris FC≈ 1 in 4.13

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side have scored in each of their last 4 matches. The home side last played 2 days ago, the away side 6 days ago. The model estimates 51% for a home win (frozen before kick-off).

League position9 vs 4

Elo rating1590 vs 1528

Last 5LDLWW homeWDWLW away

Rest days2 vs 6

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 11% · 2–1: 10% · 1–0: 9%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	6%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	11%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	3%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 53% vs 67%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	RC Lens	Paris FC	League
League position	9th of 18 · 10 pts	4th of 18 · 14 pts	—
Elo rating	1590	1528	—
Last 5	LDLWW	WDWLW	—
Points rate (last 10)	53%	67%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.9	1.9	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.3	1.0	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	70%	40%	52% · 40%
Both teams score (10)	6 of 10	5 of 10	53%
3+ goals in the match (10)	7 of 10	7 of 10	55%
Days of rest	2	6	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 45% vs 50% · league 38%

RC LensParis FCleague, year before the match · n = 298

	RC Lens	league	Paris FC
Winswon the match	45%9 of 2026–66%	38%225 of 59634–42%	50%10 of 2030–70%
Scoresscored at least once	85%17 of 2064–95%	72%431 of 59669–76%	70%14 of 2048–85%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	75%15 of 2053–89%	55%163 of 29849–60%	55%11 of 2034–74%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	65%13 of 2043–82%	53%158 of 29847–59%	55%11 of 2034–74%
Concedesconceded at least once	80%16 of 2058–92%	72%431 of 59669–76%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	30%180 of 59427–34%	45%9 of 2026–66%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 7 vs 10

RC Lens · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LDLWW

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

8:7goals

Paris FC · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WDWLW

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

9:7goals

RC Lens · Last 5 at home n = 5

WLWLW

9pts

3-0-2W-D-L

8:6goals

Paris FC · Last 5 away n = 5

WLDWL

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

7:6goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 9 → 7 vs 10 → 10

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	RC Lens	Paris FC
Points (of 15)	9 → 7 ▼	10 → 10 =
Goals scored per match	2.2 → 1.6 ▼	2.0 → 1.8 ▼
Goals conceded per match	1.2 → 1.4 ▲	0.6 → 1.4 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1545 → 1525 easier opponents	1570 (4 of 5) → 1549 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−1 (1590)	+11 (1528)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 2 vs 6

	RC Lens	Paris FC
days since last match	2	6
matches in last 7 days	2	1
matches in last 14 days	3	2
position	9 (10 pts)	4 (14 pts)
points off 1st	4	0
points off top 4	4	in top 4
points above bottom 3	4	8
matches left (incl. this one)	27	27
coach (league matches led before)	Yannick Cahuzac since 15 Sep 2026 · 3 matches new coach: what 109 measured cases show →	Liam Rosenior since 7 Jul 2026 · 7 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 180 km
weather at kick-off	10 °C · 1.7 mm · 37 km/h	forecast from 24 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

RC Lens 2-0-0 (n = 2)

	home		away
14 Feb 2026	Paris FC	0–5	RC Lens
19 Oct 2025	RC Lens	2–1	Paris FC

All 3 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Racing Club de Lens · scoring: 4

		now	longest in our database
Racing Club de Lens	scoring	4	19
Racing Club de Lens	conceding	7	7
Racing Club de Lens	both teams score	4	4
Racing Club de Lens	3+ goals	4	6
Paris FC	conceding	3	6

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	6%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	11%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	3%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	6%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	11%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	3%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	6%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	11%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	6%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	3%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%