Real Racing Club de Santander 2–1 RCD Espanyol de Barcelona

La Liga · Matchday 10 · 24 Oct 2026 14:15 UTC · referee: Jesús Gil Manzano (62 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

2–1 · hit · surprise: 0.95 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

39%1 · Santander≈ 1 in 2.58

25%X≈ 1 in 4.02

36%2 · Espanyol≈ 1 in 2.76

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side are winless in their last 4 matches. The away side travel roughly 540 km. The model estimates 39% for a home win (frozen before kick-off).

League position17 vs 16

Elo rating1481 vs 1465

Last 5WLLDL homeWLLDL away

Rest days6 vs 7

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 11% · 2–1: 9% · 1–2: 8%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	5%	6%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	6%	11%	8%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
2	5%	9%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 30% vs 30%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Santander	Espanyol	League
League position	17th of 20 · 8 pts	16th of 20 · 8 pts	—
Elo rating	1481	1465	—
Last 5	WLLDL	WLLDL	—
Points rate (last 10)	30%	30%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.4	1.2	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	2.8	1.3	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	—	27%	57% · 35%
Both teams score (10)	6 of 9	7 of 10	57%
3+ goals in the match (10)	7 of 9	5 of 10	52%
Days of rest	6	7	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 22% vs 20% · league 38%

SantanderEspanyolleague, year before the match · n = 381

	Santander	league	Espanyol
Winswon the match	22%2 of 96–55%	38%287 of 76234–41%	20%4 of 208–42%
Scoresscored at least once	67%6 of 935–88%	76%578 of 76273–79%	75%15 of 2053–89%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	78%7 of 945–94%	52%198 of 38147–57%	50%10 of 2030–70%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	67%6 of 935–88%	57%217 of 38152–62%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Concedesconceded at least once	100%9 of 970–100%	76%578 of 76273–79%	75%15 of 2053–89%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	11%1 of 92–44%	28%215 of 76225–32%	25%5 of 2011–47%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 4 vs 4

Santander · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WLLDL

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

6:17goals

Espanyol · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WLLDL

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

5:7goals

Santander · Last 5 at home

not enough data (4 of 5)

Espanyol · Last 5 away n = 5

WLWLD

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

7:6goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): not enough data (9 matches in a row; the comparison needs 10) 5 → 4 vs not enough data (9 matches in a row; the comparison needs 10) 1.4 → 1.0

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Santander	Espanyol
Points (of 15)	not enough data (9 matches in a row; the comparison needs 10)	5 → 4 ▼
Goals scored per match	not enough data (9 matches in a row; the comparison needs 10)	1.4 → 1.0 ▼
Goals conceded per match	not enough data (9 matches in a row; the comparison needs 10)	1.2 → 1.4 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	not enough data (9 matches in a row; the comparison needs 10)	1529 → 1514 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−15 (1481)	−6 (1465)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 6 vs 7

	Santander	Espanyol
days since last match	6	7
matches in last 7 days	1	0
matches in last 14 days	2	1
position	17 (8 pts)	16 (8 pts)
points off 1st	19	19
points off top 4	11	11
points above bottom 3	1	1
matches left (incl. this one)	29	29
coach (league matches led before)	José Alberto López Menéndez since 13 Dec 2022 · 9 matches	Manolo González since 12 Mar 2024 · 85 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 540 km
weather at kick-off	16 °C · 0.0 mm · 13 km/h	forecast from 24 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

not enough data

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Real Racing Club de Santander · winless: 4

		now	longest in our database
Real Racing Club de Santander	winless	4	4
Real Racing Club de Santander	conceding	9	9
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona	winless	4	18
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona	conceding	4	13

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	5%	6%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	6%	11%	8%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
2	5%	9%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	5%	6%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	6%	11%	8%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
2	5%	9%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	5%	6%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	6%	11%	8%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
2	5%	9%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	3%	5%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%