RC Celta de Vigo – Real Betis Balompié

La Liga · Matchday 10 · 25 Oct 2026 15:15 UTC

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

42%1 · Celta≈ 1 in 2.37

27%X≈ 1 in 3.73

31%2 · Real Betis≈ 1 in 3.23

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side have scored in each of their last 17 matches. The home side last played 7 days ago, the away side 3 days ago. The model estimates 42% for a home win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

League position10 vs 4

Elo rating1518 vs 1578

Last 5DDWDW homeWWDWL away

Rest days7 vs 3

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 13% · 1–0: 9% · 2–1: 9%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	13%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	9%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	4%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 47% vs 73%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Celta	Real Betis	League
League position	10th of 20 · 11 pts	4th of 20 · 19 pts	—
Elo rating	1518	1578	—
Last 5	DDWDW	WWDWL	—
Points rate (last 10)	47%	73%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.1	1.8	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	0.7	1.5	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	43%	40%	56% · 35%
Both teams score (10)	4 of 10	6 of 10	57%
3+ goals in the match (10)	3 of 10	5 of 10	52%
Days of rest	7	3	—

Goals and the first half

For each condition: the chance estimated by the model (calibrated on past seasons, the same as in the filters and the Arena), how often it happened in the teams' last 10 matches and how often across the whole league over the last 12 months. “Both teams score” = each team scores at least once (1–1 counts, 2–0 does not). “Draw or 3+ goals” = the match ends level OR has at least 3 goals (1–1 and 2–1 count, 1–0 does not); for “draw or 4+”, 2–2 and 3–1 count, 2–1 does not.

3+ goals: model 53%

Condition	Model	The teams' last 10	League, 12 months
Both teams score	56%≈ 1 in 1.78	50%10 of 20	57%
2+ goals	77%≈ 1 in 1.30	60%12 of 20	77%
3+ goals	53%≈ 1 in 1.89	40%8 of 20	52%
At most 2 goals	47%≈ 1 in 2.12	60%12 of 20	48%
Home team scores	79%≈ 1 in 1.27	60%6 of 10	81%
Away team scores	73%≈ 1 in 1.37	100%10 of 10	70%
1st half: 1+ goal	71%≈ 1 in 1.41	60%12 of 20	68%
1st half: 2+ goals	33%≈ 1 in 3.00	35%7 of 20	34%
Draw or 3+ goals	71%≈ 1 in 1.41	70%14 of 20	72%
Draw or 4+ goals	48%≈ 1 in 2.09	50%10 of 20	49%

“Last 10”: each team's league matches, home or away (for “home / away team scores”, only that team's). Tap a condition to see every upcoming match where it happened often.

Home side at home · visitors away n = 5 · 4

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 1.80 vs 1.50

	Celta at home	Real Betis away
matches	5	4
scored / match	1.80league 1.69	1.50league 1.35
conceded / match	1.20league 1.35	1.75league 1.69
both scored	60%3 of 5 · league 60%	75%3 of 4 · league 60%
3+ goals	60%3 of 5 · league 56%	50%2 of 4 · league 56%
clean sheet	20%1 of 5 · league 30%	25%1 of 4 · league 19%
failed to score	20%1 of 5 · league 19%	0%0 of 4 · league 30%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 30% vs 50% · league 38%

CeltaReal Betisleague, year before the match · n = 381

	Celta	league	Real Betis
Winswon the match	30%6 of 2015–52%	38%288 of 76234–41%	50%10 of 2030–70%
Scoresscored at least once	70%14 of 2048–85%	76%578 of 76273–79%	95%19 of 2076–99%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	52%198 of 38147–57%	55%11 of 2034–74%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	55%11 of 2034–74%	57%217 of 38152–62%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Concedesconceded at least once	70%14 of 2048–85%	76%578 of 76273–79%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	35%7 of 2018–57%	28%214 of 76225–31%	30%6 of 2015–52%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 9 vs 10

Celta · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DDWDW

9pts

2-3-0W-D-L

9:3goals

Real Betis · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WWDWL

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

11:9goals

Celta · Last 5 at home n = 5

LLDWW

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

9:6goals

Real Betis · Last 5 away n = 5

LWLWD

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

7:10goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 5 → 9 vs 12 → 10

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Celta	Real Betis
Points (of 15)	5 → 9 ▲	12 → 10 ▼
Goals scored per match	0.4 → 1.8 ▲	1.4 → 2.2 ▲
Goals conceded per match	0.8 → 0.6 ▼	1.2 → 1.8 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1491 → 1483 easier opponents	1538 → 1561 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+12 (1518)	+8 (1578)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 7 vs 3

	Celta	Real Betis
days since last match	7	3
matches in last 7 days	0	1
matches in last 14 days	1	4
position today	10 (11 pts)	4 (19 pts)
points off 1st	16	8
points off top 4	8	in top 4
points above bottom 3	3	11
matches left (incl. this one)	29	29
simulator impact	41 pp	41 pp
coach (league matches led before)	Claudio Giráldez González since 12 Mar 2024 · 95 matches	Manuel Pellegrini since 1 Aug 2020 · 123 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 590 km
weather at kick-off	19 °C · 0.0 mm · 9 km/h	forecast from 25 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Celta 1-3-1 (n = 5)

	home		away
15 Mar 2026	Real Betis	1–1	Celta
27 Aug 2025	Celta	1–1	Real Betis
8 Feb 2025	Celta	3–2	Real Betis
10 Nov 2024	Real Betis	2–2	Celta
12 Apr 2024	Real Betis	2–1	Celta

All 6 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

RC Celta de Vigo · unbeaten: 6

		now	longest in our database
RC Celta de Vigo	unbeaten	6	8
Real Betis Balompié	scoring	17	28
Real Betis Balompié	conceding	3	12
Real Betis Balompié	both teams score	3	12

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	13%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	9%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	4%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	13%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	9%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	4%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	7%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	13%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	7%	9%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	4%	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%