Angers SCO – FC Lorient

Ligue 1 · Matchday 8 · 25 Oct 2026 16:15 UTC

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

25%1 · Angers SCO≈ 1 in 4.05

29%X≈ 1 in 3.44

46%2 · Lorient≈ 1 in 2.16

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The away side have scored in each of their last 6 matches. The away side are 3 points off 1st place with 27 matches left. The model estimates 46% for an away win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

League position15 vs 8

Elo rating1430 vs 1484

Last 5LDWLL homeWDLWW away

Rest days7 vs 7

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

0–1: 14% · 1–1: 13% · 0–0: 11%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	14%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	13%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	4%	6%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 30% vs 50%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Angers SCO	Lorient	League
League position	15th of 18 · 7 pts	8th of 18 · 11 pts	—
Elo rating	1430	1484	—
Last 5	LDWLL	WDLWW	—
Points rate (last 10)	30%	50%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.2	1.3	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	2.0	1.0	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	20%	33%	53% · 39%
Both teams score (10)	7 of 10	4 of 10	53%
3+ goals in the match (10)	5 of 10	5 of 10	55%
Days of rest	7	7	—

Goals and the first half

For each condition: the chance estimated by the model (calibrated on past seasons, the same as in the filters and the Arena), how often it happened in the teams' last 10 matches and how often across the whole league over the last 12 months. “Both teams score” = each team scores at least once (1–1 counts, 2–0 does not). “Draw or 3+ goals” = the match ends level OR has at least 3 goals (1–1 and 2–1 count, 1–0 does not); for “draw or 4+”, 2–2 and 3–1 count, 2–1 does not.

3+ goals: model 46%

Condition	Model	The teams' last 10	League, 12 months
Both teams score	51%≈ 1 in 1.95	55%11 of 20	53%
2+ goals	72%≈ 1 in 1.39	75%15 of 20	74%
3+ goals	46%≈ 1 in 2.19	50%10 of 20	55%
At most 2 goals	54%≈ 1 in 1.84	50%10 of 20	45%
Home team scores	62%≈ 1 in 1.61	80%8 of 10	76%
Away team scores	75%≈ 1 in 1.34	80%8 of 10	69%
1st half: 1+ goal	67%≈ 1 in 1.50	70%14 of 20	71%
1st half: 2+ goals	28%≈ 1 in 3.63	40%8 of 20	34%
Draw or 3+ goals	67%≈ 1 in 1.49	70%14 of 20	72%
Draw or 4+ goals	44%≈ 1 in 2.28	55%11 of 20	50%

“Last 10”: each team's league matches, home or away (for “home / away team scores”, only that team's). Tap a condition to see every upcoming match where it happened often.

Home side at home · visitors away n = 4 · 3

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 1.25 vs 0.67

	Angers SCO at home	Lorient away
matches	4	3
scored / match	1.25league 1.63	0.67league 1.42
conceded / match	2.25league 1.42	0.67league 1.63
both scored	50%2 of 4 · league 65%	33%1 of 3 · league 65%
3+ goals	50%2 of 4 · league 65%	33%1 of 3 · league 65%
clean sheet	25%1 of 4 · league 23%	67%2 of 3 · league 18%
failed to score	25%1 of 4 · league 18%	33%1 of 3 · league 23%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 15% vs 35% · league 38%

Angers SCOLorientleague, year before the match · n = 297

	Angers SCO	league	Lorient
Winswon the match	15%3 of 205–36%	38%224 of 59434–42%	35%7 of 2018–57%
Scoresscored at least once	60%12 of 2039–78%	72%430 of 59469–76%	80%16 of 2058–92%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	40%8 of 2022–61%	55%162 of 29749–60%	45%9 of 2026–66%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	50%10 of 2030–70%	53%158 of 29748–59%	50%10 of 2030–70%
Concedesconceded at least once	80%16 of 2058–92%	72%430 of 59469–76%	65%13 of 2043–82%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	5%1 of 201–24%	30%179 of 59227–34%	30%6 of 2015–52%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 4 vs 10

Angers SCO · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LDWLL

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

6:12goals

Lorient · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WDLWW

10pts

3-1-1W-D-L

6:4goals

Angers SCO · Last 5 at home n = 5

DLLWL

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

6:10goals

Lorient · Last 5 away n = 5

DWDWL

8pts

2-2-1W-D-L

8:4goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 5 → 4 vs 5 → 10

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Angers SCO	Lorient
Points (of 15)	5 → 4 ▼	5 → 10 ▲
Goals scored per match	1.2 → 1.2 =	1.4 → 1.2 ▼
Goals conceded per match	1.6 → 2.4 ▲	1.2 → 0.8 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1511 → 1507 easier opponents	1502 → 1541 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−9 (1430)	+14 (1484)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 7 vs 7

	Angers SCO	Lorient
days since last match	7	7
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	1	1
position today	15 (7 pts)	8 (11 pts)
points off 1st	7	3
points off top 4	7	3
points above bottom 3	1	5
matches left (incl. this one)	27	27
simulator impact	34 pp	34 pp
coach (league matches led before)	Stéphane Gilli since 9 Jun 2026 · 7 matches	Alexandre Dujeux since 9 Jun 2026 · 7 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 220 km
weather at kick-off	15 °C · 0.0 mm · 15 km/h	forecast from 25 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Angers SCO 1-0-1 (n = 2)

	home		away
15 Feb 2026	Lorient	2–0	Angers SCO
26 Oct 2025	Angers SCO	2–0	Lorient

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Angers SCO · scoring: 3

		now	longest in our database
Angers SCO	scoring	3	9
FC Lorient	scoring	6	6

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	14%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	13%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	4%	6%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	14%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	13%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	4%	6%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	14%	10%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	13%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	4%	6%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	1%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%