Valencia CF 1–2 Villarreal CF

La Liga · Matchday 10 · 24 Oct 2026 16:30 UTC · referee: Alejandro Quintero González (41 matches in our database) · Derby

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

1–2 · hit · surprise: 0.82 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

29%1 · Valencia≈ 1 in 3.46

27%X≈ 1 in 3.72

44%2 · Villarreal≈ 1 in 2.26

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side are winless in their last 3 matches. The home side last played 6 days ago, the away side 3 days ago. The model estimates 44% for an away win (frozen before kick-off).

League position19 vs 14

Elo rating1485 vs 1590

Last 5LWLDD homeLWWLD away

Rest days6 vs 3

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 13% · 0–1: 9% · 1–2: 9%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	9%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	7%	13%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	5%	7%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 30% vs 40%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Valencia	Villarreal	League
League position	19th of 20 · 6 pts	14th of 20 · 9 pts	—
Elo rating	1485	1590	—
Last 5	LWLDD	LWWLD	—
Points rate (last 10)	30%	40%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	0.9	1.8	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.6	1.4	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	30%	33%	57% · 35%
Both teams score (10)	4 of 10	7 of 10	57%
3+ goals in the match (10)	5 of 10	7 of 10	52%
Days of rest	6	3	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 30% vs 35% · league 38%

ValenciaVillarrealleague, year before the match · n = 382

	Valencia	league	Villarreal
Winswon the match	30%6 of 2015–52%	38%288 of 76434–41%	35%7 of 2018–57%
Scoresscored at least once	60%12 of 2039–78%	76%580 of 76473–79%	75%15 of 2053–89%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	40%8 of 2022–61%	52%199 of 38247–57%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	57%218 of 38252–62%	75%15 of 2053–89%
Concedesconceded at least once	75%15 of 2053–89%	76%580 of 76473–79%	95%19 of 2076–99%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	15%3 of 205–36%	28%215 of 76425–31%	35%7 of 2018–57%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 5 vs 7

Valencia · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LWLDD

5pts

1-2-2W-D-L

5:6goals

Villarreal · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LWWLD

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

7:5goals

Valencia · Last 5 at home n = 5

DLLLD

2pts

0-2-3W-D-L

2:9goals

Villarreal · Last 5 away n = 5

DDLWL

5pts

1-2-2W-D-L

7:7goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 4 → 5 vs 5 → 7

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Valencia	Villarreal
Points (of 15)	4 → 5 ▲	5 → 7 ▲
Goals scored per match	0.8 → 1.0 ▲	2.2 → 1.4 ▼
Goals conceded per match	2.0 → 1.2 ▼	1.8 → 1.0 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1617 → 1492 easier opponents	1558 (4 of 5) → 1548 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	−4 (1485)	±0 (1590)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 6 vs 3

	Valencia	Villarreal
days since last match	6	3
matches in last 7 days	1	1
matches in last 14 days	2	4
position	19 (6 pts)	14 (9 pts)
points off 1st	21	18
points off top 4	13	10
points above bottom 3	bottom 3 · 2 off 17th	2
matches left (incl. this one)	29	29
coach (league matches led before)	unconfirmed	Iñigo Pérez since 1 Jun 2026 · 9 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 60 km
weather at kick-off	21 °C · 0.0 mm · 14 km/h	forecast from 24 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

Derby: Valencian derby.

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI, coach.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Valencia 0-2-3 (n = 5)

	home		away
22 Feb 2026	Villarreal	2–1	Valencia
25 Oct 2025	Valencia	0–2	Villarreal
15 Feb 2025	Villarreal	1–1	Valencia
31 Aug 2024	Valencia	1–1	Villarreal
17 Mar 2024	Villarreal	1–0	Valencia

All 7 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Valencia CF · winless: 3

		now	longest in our database
Valencia CF	winless	3	12

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	9%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	7%	13%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	5%	7%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	9%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	7%	13%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	5%	7%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	9%	8%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
1	7%	13%	9%	5%	2%	1%	<1%
2	5%	7%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%