Borussia Dortmund 1–0 Eintracht Frankfurt

Bundesliga · Matchday 7 · 24 Oct 2026 16:30 UTC · referee: Sven Jablonski (51 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

1–0 · hit · surprise: 0.43 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

65%1 · Dortmund≈ 1 in 1.54

19%X≈ 1 in 5.32

16%2 · Frankfurt≈ 1 in 6.11

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side are unbeaten in their last 8 matches. The home side last played 3 days ago, the away side 7 days ago. The model estimates 65% for a home win (frozen before kick-off).

League position2 vs 11

Elo rating1654 vs 1522

Last 5WWWDD homeLWDLW away

Rest days3 vs 7

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

2–1: 9% · 1–1: 8% · 2–0: 8%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	6%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	9%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	4%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	2%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): 1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 77% vs 33%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Dortmund	Frankfurt	League
League position	2nd of 18 · 14 pts	11th of 18 · 8 pts	—
Elo rating	1654	1522	—
Last 5	WWWDD	LWDLW	—
Points rate (last 10)	77%	33%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	2.0	1.6	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	0.7	2.4	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	73%	33%	54% · 38%
Both teams score (10)	3 of 10	8 of 10	62%
3+ goals in the match (10)	5 of 10	8 of 10	65%
Days of rest	3	7	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 65% vs 30% · league 38%

DortmundFrankfurtleague, year before the match · n = 303

	Dortmund	league	Frankfurt
Winswon the match	65%13 of 2043–82%	38%228 of 60634–42%	30%6 of 2015–52%
Scoresscored at least once	85%17 of 2064–95%	79%477 of 60675–82%	90%18 of 2070–97%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	60%12 of 2039–78%	65%197 of 30359–70%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	62%188 of 30356–67%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Concedesconceded at least once	55%11 of 2034–74%	79%477 of 60675–82%	75%15 of 2053–89%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	45%9 of 2026–66%	32%192 of 60628–35%	30%6 of 2015–52%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 11 vs 7

Dortmund · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WWWDD

11pts

3-2-0W-D-L

9:4goals

Frankfurt · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LWDLW

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

7:13goals

Dortmund · Last 5 at home n = 5

WWWWD

13pts

4-1-0W-D-L

14:4goals

Frankfurt · Last 5 away n = 5

DLDWL

5pts

1-2-2W-D-L

9:14goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 12 → 11 vs 3 → 7

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Dortmund	Frankfurt
Points (of 15)	12 → 11 ▼	3 → 7 ▲
Goals scored per match	2.2 → 1.8 ▼	1.8 → 1.4 ▼
Goals conceded per match	0.6 → 0.8 ▲	2.2 → 2.6 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1487 → 1502 tougher opponents	1522 → 1506 easier opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+8 (1654)	−8 (1522)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 3 vs 7

	Dortmund	Frankfurt
days since last match	3	7
matches in last 7 days	1	0
matches in last 14 days	3	2
position	2 (14 pts)	11 (8 pts)
points off 1st	0	6
points off top 4	in top 4	5
points above bottom 3	9	3
matches left (incl. this one)	28	28
coach (league matches led before)	Niko Kovač since 30 Jan 2025 · 55 matches	Adi Hütter since 31 May 2026 · 6 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 180 km
weather at kick-off	11 °C · 0.0 mm · 21 km/h	forecast from 24 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Dortmund 3-1-1 (n = 5)

	home		away
8 May 2026	Dortmund	3–2	Frankfurt
9 Jan 2026	Frankfurt	3–3	Dortmund
17 Jan 2025	Frankfurt	2–0	Dortmund
24 Aug 2024	Dortmund	2–0	Frankfurt
17 Mar 2024	Dortmund	3–1	Frankfurt

All 7 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Borussia Dortmund · unbeaten: 8

		now	longest in our database
Borussia Dortmund	unbeaten	8	16

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	6%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	9%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	4%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	2%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	6%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	9%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	4%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	2%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	3%	3%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	6%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	9%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	6%	8%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	4%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	2%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	1%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%