Genoa CFC – Venezia FC

Serie A · Matchday 8 · 25 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

48%1 · Genoa≈ 1 in 2.09

28%X≈ 1 in 3.55

24%2 · Venezia FC≈ 1 in 4.16

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side took 4 points from their last 5 matches, the away side 3 from their last 5. The home side are 0 points above the bottom three with 31 matches left. The model estimates 48% for a home win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

League position17 vs 20

Elo rating1452 vs 1416

Last 5LDLWL homeLLLLW away

Rest days7 vs 8

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–0: 14% · 1–1: 13% · 0–0: 11%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	14%	13%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	10%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	4%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 17% vs 14%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Genoa	Venezia FC	League
League position	17th of 20 · 4 pts	20th of 20 · 3 pts	—
Elo rating	1452	1416	—
Last 5	LDLWL	LLLLW	—
Points rate (last 10)	17%	14%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	0.6	0.9	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.6	2.3	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	43%	—	49% · 44%
Both teams score (10)	5 of 10	3 of 7	48%
3+ goals in the match (10)	4 of 10	3 of 7	50%
Days of rest	7	8	—

Goals and the first half

For each condition: the chance estimated by the model (calibrated on past seasons, the same as in the filters and the Arena), how often it happened in the teams' last 10 matches and how often across the whole league over the last 12 months. “Both teams score” = each team scores at least once (1–1 counts, 2–0 does not). “Draw or 3+ goals” = the match ends level OR has at least 3 goals (1–1 and 2–1 count, 1–0 does not); for “draw or 4+”, 2–2 and 3–1 count, 2–1 does not.

3+ goals: model 46%

Condition	Model	The teams' last 10	League, 12 months
Both teams score	51%≈ 1 in 1.96	47%8 of 17	48%
2+ goals	72%≈ 1 in 1.39	76%13 of 17	74%
3+ goals	46%≈ 1 in 2.17	41%7 of 17	50%
At most 2 goals	54%≈ 1 in 1.85	59%10 of 17	50%
Home team scores	76%≈ 1 in 1.31	50%5 of 10	71%
Away team scores	64%≈ 1 in 1.57	57%4 of 7	69%
1st half: 1+ goal	66%≈ 1 in 1.51	53%9 of 17	66%
1st half: 2+ goals	27%≈ 1 in 3.64	29%5 of 17	30%
Draw or 3+ goals	67%≈ 1 in 1.50	53%9 of 17	66%
Draw or 4+ goals	44%≈ 1 in 2.29	35%6 of 17	40%

“Last 10”: each team's league matches, home or away (for “home / away team scores”, only that team's). Tap a condition to see every upcoming match where it happened often.

Home side at home · visitors away n = 4 · 3

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 1.00 vs 1.00

	Genoa at home	Venezia FC away
matches	4	3
scored / match	1.00league 1.59	1.00league 1.41
conceded / match	2.00league 1.41	2.67league 1.59
both scored	75%3 of 4 · league 57%	67%2 of 3 · league 57%
3+ goals	50%2 of 4 · league 60%	67%2 of 3 · league 60%
clean sheet	0%0 of 4 · league 23%	0%0 of 3 · league 21%
failed to score	25%1 of 4 · league 21%	33%1 of 3 · league 23%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 30% vs 50% · league 39%

GenoaVenezia FCleague, year before the match · n = 382

	Genoa	league	Venezia FC
Winswon the match	30%6 of 2015–52%	39%295 of 76435–42%	—
Scoresscored at least once	50%10 of 2030–70%	70%538 of 76467–74%	—
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	40%8 of 2022–61%	50%191 of 38245–55%	—
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	40%8 of 2022–61%	48%182 of 38243–53%	—
Concedesconceded at least once	80%16 of 2058–92%	70%538 of 76467–74%	—
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	15%3 of 205–36%	28%217 of 76425–32%	—

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Venezia FC: not enough data: 7 of 8 matches

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 4 vs 3

Genoa · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LDLWL

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

5:10goals

Venezia FC · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LLLLW

3pts

1-0-4W-D-L

6:12goals

Genoa · Last 5 at home n = 5

LLLDW

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

5:10goals

Venezia FC · Last 5 away

not enough data (3 of 5)

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 1 → 4 vs not enough data (7 matches in a row; the comparison needs 10) Goals scored per match 0.2 → 1.0

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Genoa	Venezia FC
Points (of 15)	1 → 4 ▲	not enough data (7 matches in a row; the comparison needs 10)
Goals scored per match	0.2 → 1.0 ▲	not enough data (7 matches in a row; the comparison needs 10)
Goals conceded per match	1.2 → 2.0 ▲	not enough data (7 matches in a row; the comparison needs 10)
Average Elo of the opponents	1544 → 1533 easier opponents	not enough data (7 matches in a row; the comparison needs 10)
Elo over the last 5 matches	−10 (1452)	−12 (1416)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 7 vs 8

	Genoa	Venezia FC
days since last match	7	8
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	1	2
position today	17 (4 pts)	20 (3 pts)
points off 1st	18	19
points off top 4	13	14
points above bottom 3	0	bottom 3 · 1 off 17th
matches left (incl. this one)	31	31
simulator impact	33 pp	33 pp
coach (league matches led before)	Daniele De Rossi since 6 Nov 2025 · 35 matches	Giovanni Stroppa since 1 Jul 2025 · 7 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 290 km
weather at kick-off	18 °C · 0.0 mm · 12 km/h	forecast from 25 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Genoa 1-0-1 (n = 2)

	home		away
17 Feb 2025	Genoa	2–0	Venezia FC
21 Sep 2024	Venezia FC	2–0	Genoa

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Genoa CFC · conceding: 9

		now	longest in our database
Genoa CFC	conceding	9	12

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	14%	13%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	10%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	4%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	14%	13%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	10%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	4%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	11%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	14%	13%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
2	10%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	4%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%