Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 0–3 Elche CF

La Liga · Matchday 10 · 24 Oct 2026 12:00 UTC · referee: Miguel Sesma Espinosa (23 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

0–3 · miss · surprise: 1.38 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

48%1 · Rayo Vallecano≈ 1 in 2.07

27%X≈ 1 in 3.75

25%2 · Elche≈ 1 in 3.99

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side have scored in each of their last 15 matches. The home side last played 4 days ago, the away side 6 days ago. The model estimates 48% for a home win (frozen before kick-off).

League position12 vs 18

Elo rating1503 vs 1481

Last 5WLWDD homeDLWDD away

Rest days4 vs 6

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 13% · 1–0: 10% · 2–0: 9%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	7%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	13%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	9%	9%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 50% vs 27%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Rayo Vallecano	Elche	League
League position	12th of 20 · 9 pts	18th of 20 · 7 pts	—
Elo rating	1503	1481	—
Last 5	WLWDD	DLWDD	—
Points rate (last 10)	50%	27%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.6	1.2	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.8	1.8	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	73%	33%	57% · 35%
Both teams score (10)	9 of 10	7 of 10	57%
3+ goals in the match (10)	6 of 10	5 of 10	52%
Days of rest	4	6	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 35% vs 30% · league 38%

Rayo VallecanoElcheleague, year before the match · n = 380

	Rayo Vallecano	league	Elche
Winswon the match	35%7 of 2018–57%	38%286 of 76034–41%	30%6 of 2015–52%
Scoresscored at least once	90%18 of 2070–97%	76%577 of 76073–79%	80%16 of 2058–92%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	40%8 of 2022–61%	52%197 of 38047–57%	55%11 of 2034–74%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	70%14 of 2048–85%	57%217 of 38052–62%	70%14 of 2048–85%
Concedesconceded at least once	80%16 of 2058–92%	76%577 of 76073–79%	80%16 of 2058–92%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	25%5 of 2011–47%	28%214 of 76025–31%	20%4 of 208–42%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 8 vs 6

Rayo Vallecano · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WLWDD

8pts

2-2-1W-D-L

8:9goals

Elche · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DLWDD

6pts

1-3-1W-D-L

6:5goals

Rayo Vallecano · Last 5 at home n = 5

DWDWW

11pts

3-2-0W-D-L

9:5goals

Elche · Last 5 away n = 5

DLDWD

6pts

1-3-1W-D-L

7:6goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 7 → 8 vs 2 → 6

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Rayo Vallecano	Elche
Points (of 15)	7 → 8 ▲	2 → 6 ▲
Goals scored per match	1.6 → 1.6 =	1.2 → 1.2 =
Goals conceded per match	1.8 → 1.8 =	2.6 → 1.0 ▼
Average Elo of the opponents	1548 → 1528 easier opponents	1553 (4 of 5) → 1567 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+6 (1503)	+10 (1481)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 4 vs 6

	Rayo Vallecano	Elche
days since last match	4	6
matches in last 7 days	1	1
matches in last 14 days	2	2
position	12 (9 pts)	18 (7 pts)
points off 1st	18	20
points off top 4	10	12
points above bottom 3	2	bottom 3 · 1 off 17th
matches left (incl. this one)	29	29
coach (league matches led before)	no data	Martín Anselmi since 13 Jun 2026 · 9 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 350 km
weather at kick-off	16 °C · 0.0 mm · 7 km/h	forecast from 24 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI, coach.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Rayo Vallecano 1-0-1 (n = 2)

	home		away
3 Apr 2026	Rayo Vallecano	1–0	Elche
21 Dec 2025	Elche	4–0	Rayo Vallecano

All 3 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid · unbeaten: 3

		now	longest in our database
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid	unbeaten	3	9
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid	scoring	15	15
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid	conceding	9	9
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid	both teams score	9	9
Elche CF	unbeaten	3	7

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	7%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	13%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	9%	9%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	7%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	13%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	9%	9%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	8%	7%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	13%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	9%	9%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%