Stade Brestois 29 1–2 OGC Nice

Ligue 1 · Matchday 8 · 23 Oct 2026 18:45 UTC · referee: Guillaume Paradis (19 matches in our database)

After the match

The final result against the estimate frozen before the match, marked explicitly: hit when the most likely result was the real one, miss otherwise; “surprise” = how unlikely the real result was for the model.

1–2 · miss · surprise: 1.34 ❄

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

49%1 · Brest≈ 1 in 2.04

25%X≈ 1 in 4.02

26%2 · Nice≈ 1 in 3.83

❄ frozen before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side have scored in each of their last 3 matches. The away side travel roughly 1040 km. The model estimates 49% for a home win (frozen before kick-off).

League position10 vs 13

Elo rating1500 vs 1491

Last 5WLLWD homeDLWWL away

Rest days6 vs 5

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 12% · 2–1: 10% · 1–0: 9%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	6%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	12%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 33% vs 33%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Brest	Nice	League
League position	10th of 18 · 9 pts	13th of 18 · 8 pts	—
Elo rating	1500	1491	—
Last 5	WLLWD	DLWWL	—
Points rate (last 10)	33%	33%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.5	0.8	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.4	1.2	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	50%	17%	52% · 40%
Both teams score (10)	8 of 10	6 of 10	53%
3+ goals in the match (10)	6 of 10	5 of 10	55%
Days of rest	6	5	—

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 25% vs 15% · league 38%

BrestNiceleague, year before the match · n = 297

	Brest	league	Nice
Winswon the match	25%5 of 2011–47%	38%224 of 59434–42%	15%3 of 205–36%
Scoresscored at least once	75%15 of 2053–89%	72%429 of 59468–76%	55%11 of 2034–74%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	50%10 of 2030–70%	55%162 of 29749–60%	45%9 of 2026–66%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	60%12 of 2039–78%	53%157 of 29747–58%	50%10 of 2030–70%
Concedesconceded at least once	85%17 of 2064–95%	72%429 of 59468–76%	80%16 of 2058–92%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	35%7 of 2018–57%	30%179 of 59227–34%	10%2 of 203–30%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 7 vs 7

Brest · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WLLWD

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

9:6goals

Nice · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

DLWWL

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

6:6goals

Brest · Last 5 at home n = 5

LDDLW

5pts

1-2-2W-D-L

9:7goals

Nice · Last 5 away n = 5

DLLLL

1pts

0-1-4W-D-L

3:9goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 3 → 7 vs 3 → 7

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Brest	Nice
Points (of 15)	3 → 7 ▲	3 → 7 ▲
Goals scored per match	1.2 → 1.8 ▲	0.4 → 1.2 ▲
Goals conceded per match	1.6 → 1.2 ▼	1.2 → 1.2 =
Average Elo of the opponents	1545 (4 of 5) → 1529 easier opponents	1480 → 1539 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+6 (1500)	+3 (1491)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 6 vs 5

	Brest	Nice
days since last match	6	5
matches in last 7 days	1	1
matches in last 14 days	2	2
position	10 (9 pts)	13 (8 pts)
points off 1st	5	6
points off top 4	5	6
points above bottom 3	3	2
matches left (incl. this one)	27	27
coach (league matches led before)	unconfirmed	Olivier Pantaloni since 17 Jun 2026 · 7 matches
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 1040 km
weather at kick-off	12 °C · 0.0 mm · 21 km/h	forecast from 23 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI, coach.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Brest 1-2-2 (n = 5)

	home		away
1 Feb 2026	Nice	2–2	Brest
20 Sep 2025	Brest	4–1	Nice
17 May 2025	Nice	6–0	Brest
2 Nov 2024	Brest	0–1	Nice
4 Feb 2024	Brest	0–0	Nice

All 7 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Stade Brestois 29 · scoring: 3

		now	longest in our database
Stade Brestois 29	scoring	3	8
Stade Brestois 29	conceding	16	16
Stade Brestois 29	both teams score	3	5
OGC Nice	scoring	3	18
OGC Nice	conceding	6	10
OGC Nice	both teams score	3	8
OGC Nice	3+ goals	3	8

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	6%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	12%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	6%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	12%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	6%	6%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	9%	12%	7%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	8%	10%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%