Sevilla FC – CA Osasuna

La Liga · Matchday 10 · 26 Oct 2026 20:00 UTC

Model estimate

The model's chances for a home win, a draw and an away win. ❄ = the estimate was frozen within the last hour before kick-off (the model runs hourly) and no longer changes; “provisional” = it can still change until it is frozen. How good the model is can be seen on the calibration page.

50%1 · Sevilla FC≈ 1 in 2.01

26%X≈ 1 in 3.91

25%2 · Osasuna≈ 1 in 4.07

provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off · How good is the model?

In three sentences

Three sentences, each from a figure in our database: what happened (streaks, form or head-to-head), why it matters today (rest, congestion, table, derby) and what the model estimates. Nothing hand-written, nothing guessed.

The home side have scored in each of their last 9 matches. The away side travel roughly 710 km. The model estimates 50% for a home win (provisional, frozen within the last hour before kick-off).

League position6 vs 9

Elo rating1467 vs 1472

Last 5WWLDL homeLLDLW away

Rest days8 vs 8

Most likely scores

The scores the model sees as most likely, from the same calculation as the 1 / X / 2 chances. In the grid, rows are the home goals and columns the away goals; 10% means roughly 1 match in 10 with exactly that score.

1–1: 12% · 1–0: 10% · 2–1: 10%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	6%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	12%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	9%	10%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Rows: home goals · columns: away goals. Any other score (a team with 7+ goals): <1%.

Side by side at a glance

Both teams side by side at a glance: position, Elo, recent results, points rate, goals and rest, with the league average where it makes sense. Each number is detailed further down the page.

points rate 47% vs 37%

The home and away teams before the match, from their matches in a row. = ahead on that row. League = average over the last 12 months.

	Sevilla FC	Osasuna	League
League position	6th of 20 · 14 pts	9th of 20 · 11 pts	—
Elo rating	1467	1472	—
Last 5	WWLDL	LLDLW	—
Points rate (last 10)	47%	37%	46%
Goals scored per match (10)	1.4	1.0	—
Goals conceded per match (10)	1.7	1.9	—
At venue (10): home team at home, away team away	53%	13%	57% · 35%
Both teams score (10)	7 of 10	4 of 10	57%
3+ goals in the match (10)	6 of 10	4 of 10	52%
Days of rest	8	8	—

Goals and the first half

For each condition: the chance estimated by the model (calibrated on past seasons, the same as in the filters and the Arena), how often it happened in the teams' last 10 matches and how often across the whole league over the last 12 months. “Both teams score” = each team scores at least once (1–1 counts, 2–0 does not). “Draw or 3+ goals” = the match ends level OR has at least 3 goals (1–1 and 2–1 count, 1–0 does not); for “draw or 4+”, 2–2 and 3–1 count, 2–1 does not.

3+ goals: model 54%

Condition	Model	The teams' last 10	League, 12 months
Both teams score	56%≈ 1 in 1.79	55%11 of 20	57%
2+ goals	77%≈ 1 in 1.29	70%14 of 20	77%
3+ goals	54%≈ 1 in 1.87	50%10 of 20	52%
At most 2 goals	46%≈ 1 in 2.15	50%10 of 20	48%
Home team scores	82%≈ 1 in 1.21	90%9 of 10	81%
Away team scores	70%≈ 1 in 1.43	60%6 of 10	70%
1st half: 1+ goal	72%≈ 1 in 1.40	70%14 of 20	68%
1st half: 2+ goals	34%≈ 1 in 2.94	30%6 of 20	34%
Draw or 3+ goals	71%≈ 1 in 1.40	65%13 of 20	72%
Draw or 4+ goals	48%≈ 1 in 2.08	55%11 of 20	49%

“Last 10”: each team's league matches, home or away (for “home / away team scores”, only that team's). Tap a condition to see every upcoming match where it happened often.

Home side at home · visitors away n = 4 · 4

The home side only in its home matches, the visitors only in their away matches, this season: goals scored and conceded, how often both teams scored, how often there were 3+ goals, how often they kept a clean sheet and how often they failed to score. Under each percentage: out of how many matches, and the league average on the same matches. It describes what happened, not what comes next.

scored / match: 1.25 vs 1.50

	Sevilla FC at home	Osasuna away
matches	4	4
scored / match	1.25league 1.69	1.50league 1.35
conceded / match	1.75league 1.35	3.75league 1.69
both scored	75%3 of 4 · league 60%	75%3 of 4 · league 60%
3+ goals	75%3 of 4 · league 56%	100%4 of 4 · league 56%
clean sheet	25%1 of 4 · league 30%	0%0 of 4 · league 19%
failed to score	0%0 of 4 · league 19%	25%1 of 4 · league 30%

Match radar

Six things that happened in each team's last 20 league matches before this one, next to how often they happened across the whole league in the year before the match. The further a point is from the centre, the more often it happened. It is not a rating and does not say who wins.

Wins: 40% vs 25% · league 38%

Sevilla FCOsasunaleague, year before the match · n = 376

	Sevilla FC	league	Osasuna
Winswon the match	40%8 of 2022–61%	38%284 of 75234–41%	25%5 of 2011–47%
Scoresscored at least once	75%15 of 2053–89%	76%570 of 75273–79%	75%15 of 2053–89%
3+ goalsat least 3 goals in the match, both teams (2-1 counts, 1-1 does not)	55%11 of 2034–74%	52%196 of 37647–57%	55%11 of 2034–74%
Both teams scoreboth teams scored (1-1 counts, 2-0 does not)	60%12 of 2039–78%	57%214 of 37652–62%	60%12 of 2039–78%
Concedesconceded at least once	85%17 of 2064–95%	76%570 of 75273–79%	80%16 of 2058–92%
Leads at half-timemore goals at the break (1-0 counts, 1-1 does not)	15%3 of 205–36%	28%210 of 75225–31%	15%3 of 205–36%

Under each percentage: the 95% confidence interval. The rings in the chart: 25, 50, 75 and 100%.

Form before the match

Each team's last 5 matches before this one: anywhere, and separately the home side at home / the away side away. Points, wins-draws-losses, goals.

points, last 5: 7 vs 4

Sevilla FC · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

WWLDL

7pts

2-1-2W-D-L

7:10goals

Osasuna · Last 5, anywhere n = 5

LLDLW

4pts

1-1-3W-D-L

5:12goals

Sevilla FC · Last 5 at home n = 5

LWLWL

6pts

2-0-3W-D-L

5:8goals

Osasuna · Last 5 away n = 5

LWLLL

3pts

1-0-4W-D-L

6:16goals

What changed

Each team's direction before the match: the previous 5 matches against the last 5 (points, goals, how strong the opponents were by Elo) and how many Elo points it gained or lost. It says what happened, not why or what comes next; 5 matches are few.

Points (of 15): 7 → 7 vs 7 → 4

The previous 5 matches → the last 5, played before kick-off.

	Sevilla FC	Osasuna
Points (of 15)	7 → 7 =	7 → 4 ▼
Goals scored per match	1.4 → 1.4 =	1.0 → 1.0 =
Goals conceded per match	1.4 → 2.0 ▲	1.4 → 2.4 ▲
Average Elo of the opponents	1530 → 1592 tougher opponents	1487 → 1533 tougher opponents
Elo over the last 5 matches	+6 (1467)	−12 (1472)

Context

Figures about both teams' situation before the match, in real units: days since the previous match on the calendar (league and Champions League; domestic cups are not in the free source), matches in the 7 and 14 days before, position and points distance to the important zones with matches remaining, the simulator impact when the match is near, and each team's coach on the match date with the league matches led before it (Wikidata; the current one only if football-data.org names the same person). What the free source does not give is shown as such, not hidden.

rest days: 8 vs 8

	Sevilla FC	Osasuna
days since last match	8	8
matches in last 7 days	0	0
matches in last 14 days	1	1
position today	6 (14 pts)	9 (11 pts)
points off 1st	13	16
points off top 4	5	8
points above bottom 3	6	3
matches left (incl. this one)	29	29
simulator impact	28 pp	28 pp
coach (league matches led before)	Luis García Plaza since 25 Mar 2026 · 18 matches	unconfirmed
travel distance (away side)	—	≈ 710 km
weather at kick-off	19 °C · 0.0 mm · 4 km/h	forecast from 25 Oct 2026, Open-Meteo

no data in the free source: absentees, starting XI, coach.

Head-to-head

The latest head-to-head matches in our database, with the score and who played at home. Few matches = little information; an old result says nothing about today's.

Sevilla FC 1-2-2 (n = 5)

	home		away
26 Apr 2026	Osasuna	2–1	Sevilla FC
8 Nov 2025	Sevilla FC	1–0	Osasuna
24 Apr 2025	Osasuna	1–0	Sevilla FC
2 Dec 2024	Sevilla FC	1–1	Osasuna
28 Jan 2024	Sevilla FC	1–1	Osasuna

All 6 meetings in our database →

Ongoing streaks

Both teams' ongoing streaks before the match: matches in a row unbeaten, scoring, keeping a clean sheet and so on. A streak describes the past; today's match can end it.

Sevilla FC · winless: 3

		now	longest in our database
Sevilla FC	winless	3	10
Sevilla FC	scoring	9	11
Sevilla FC	conceding	3	11
Sevilla FC	both teams score	3	7
Sevilla FC	3+ goals	3	4
CA Osasuna	scoring	3	12

Updated 25 Oct 2026 07:20

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	6%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	12%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	9%	10%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	6%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	12%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	9%	10%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
0	7%	6%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
1	10%	12%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
2	9%	10%	5%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
3	5%	5%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%